Zimbabwe faces fertility decline

Zimbabwe is witnessing a steady decline in fertility rates as more citizens struggle to achieve their reproductive goals, a trend that mirrors global patterns highlighted in the 2024 State of the World Population (SWP) report released by UNFPA. The report warns that the world is grappling with a fertility crisis, not because of overpopulation or underpopulation, but due to people's increasing inability to have the number of children they want, when they want, or with whom they want.

At home, Zimbabwe's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen from 4.3 children per woman in 1994 to 3.8 in 2005–2006. The latest Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) for 2023–2024 indicates a slight increase to 3.9, yet this remains reflective of a long-term decline. Although Zimbabwe's fertility rate is still above the replacement level of 2.1, experts say the changing demographics pose serious implications for the country's future labour force, economic growth, and citizens' reproductive rights.

Health and Child Care Minister Dr Douglas Mombeshora, speaking during the launch of the 2025 SWP report, said that the decisions individuals make about having children are increasingly shaped by a complex web of economic, cultural, and structural barriers. He pointed out that Zimbabwe has a youthful population, with 66 percent of citizens under the age of 30, a demographic advantage that could drive development. However, unmet needs for contraception and persistent gender-based violence continue to hinder progress, particularly for young people and marginalized communities.

Dr Mombeshora reaffirmed the government's commitment to upholding reproductive rights, aligning with the principles established at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). He noted progress made, citing a significant reduction in the maternal mortality ratio from 651 per 100,000 live births in 2015 to 212 currently, as well as increased uptake of modern contraceptives among women.

Presenting broader global trends, UNFPA Zimbabwe Programme Specialist for Reproductive Health Dr Edwin Mpeta explained that fertility rates worldwide have dropped from an average of five children per woman in the 1950s to an expected 2.1 by 2050. Population growth is forecast to peak by 2085, after which it will begin to decline. He shared findings from a 14-country study showing that over 40 percent of people aged 50 had not achieved their desired family size. Among younger people, 20 percent do not expect to meet their fertility aspirations, and 45 percent remain uncertain.

Dr Mpeta noted that one in four individuals reported struggling to conceive when they wanted a child, and one in three experienced an unintended pregnancy. Approximately 15 percent reported facing both challenges. He emphasised that the issue at hand is not the size of the population but the inability of people to fulfill their reproductive desires. Economic hardship emerged as the most cited barrier, with 40 percent of respondents pointing to financial reasons for not having as many children as they wished. Other obstacles included infertility, chronic illness, political instability, and lack of suitable partners.

In Zimbabwe, infertility services are virtually nonexistent in the public sector and prohibitively expensive in private clinics, creating a paradox where the country excels in family planning services but performs poorly in addressing infertility. Dr Mpeta criticised the fragmented policies, limited funding, and lack of investment in fertility-related research.

Efforts are underway to tackle these barriers through UNFPA's integrated Eight-Country Programme, which focuses on eliminating maternal deaths, unmet family planning needs, gender-based violence, and new HIV infections. These objectives are being pursued within a framework that addresses adolescents and young people through a blend of health, education, and economic empowerment initiatives. The Ministry of Finance is spearheading coordination efforts to ensure alignment with national priorities, while implementation partners like the Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council (ZNFPC) work on raising awareness and expanding access to services, particularly among young people.

ZNFPC Chief Executive Officer Farai Machinga said Zimbabwe is leveraging advocacy and policy engagement to drive change. Parliamentarians are being engaged to increase domestic financing and policy support, while campaigns like "Not In My Village" have been instrumental in reducing teenage pregnancies and child marriages. Machinga acknowledged the rollout of comprehensive sexuality education to equip young people with accurate information but stressed the urgent need for more investment in fertility research and services to ensure policies encompass the full spectrum of reproductive health, including infertility care.

British Embassy Senior Health Advisor Tessa Mattholie echoed the urgency of supporting reproductive autonomy. She emphasised that the real crisis is not about population numbers but about ensuring individuals have the ability to make informed decisions regarding if, when, and with whom to have children.

As Zimbabwe contends with these fertility challenges, experts warn that recognition alone is insufficient. The country must make bold investments, craft inclusive policies, and renew its commitment to ensuring all citizens can build the families they desire, free from barriers that undermine their reproductive rights.