South Africa's interests in Zimbabwe's elections

Zimbabwe is nearing a historic period of political change, and South Africa is maneuvering to play a major role in it. This is why, as Zimbabwean Finance Minister Tendai Biti announced April 15, the South African government has extended a loan of roughly $100 million to its northern neighbor. The loan will meet a range of general budgetary needs in Harare, but its primary goal is likely to underwrite Zimbabwe's upcoming national elections, which are scheduled to begin June 29. South Africa hopes the funding will ensure a stable and timely electoral process in Zimbabwe -- one that in time will help Pretoria extract economic concessions from the country and influence Zimbabwe's transition away from the rule of longtime President Robert Mugabe.

Analysis
The upcoming national elections will be Zimbabwe's first since a disputed vote in 2008 led to the formation of a coalition government in Harare. Mugabe, who has governed the country since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1980, will face off against Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, who received his current post as part of the political settlement that resolved the 2008 dispute.

Zimbabwe has been struggling to pay its bills, and government officials and ordinary Zimbabweans alike complain often about the poor state of government finances. The government has even expressed doubt about its ability to fund the upcoming elections. Economic policies overseen by the Mugabe regime, such as that of confiscating commercial farms from white Zimbabweans and using the proceeds to reward political supporters, led to a steady economic decline beginning in the late 1990s and to the loss of the country's historical role as southern Africa's breadbasket. Meanwhile, political elites in Harare have weathered the sharp economic decline by granting themselves mining and trading concessions and through steady involvement in smuggling activities, including diamonds from the country's Marange fields near the Mozambique border.

The Ruling Party's Political Calculus
Holding the elections on schedule is important for Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. At 89 years old and in declining health, the president probably could not campaign indefinitely if the elections were indeed postponed. If Mugabe dies while in office, the Zimbabwean constitution permits the president's political party to retain the office for the remainder of the current term and appoint an interim successor without calling for new elections.
 
VIDEO: Zimbabwe's Political Dynamics
Were Mugabe to die in the upcoming weeks, his successor would govern for a relatively short amount of time before the term expires. The party's replacement candidate might not carry a campaign as successfully as Mugabe, and the transition could invigorate the Tsvangirai-led Movement for Democratic Change. Without Mugabe, the ruling party could still attempt to rig the elections, but it will face significant scrutiny from the regional and international community and will be pressured to minimize the fraudulent activity that permitted Mugabe and his party to retain power in 2008.

The loan from South Africa should allow Zimbabwe to hold the elections on schedule. This would ensure that Mugabe remains the candidate for the ruling party, which would thereby be in its best possible position to achieve a presidential and parliamentary victory. A win at the polls would reduce the pressure on the ruling party, at least as regards its reliance on Mugabe as its standard-bearer. The president could then comfortably retire or die in office, leaving the ruling party in command for the remainder of the new five-year term. This is not to say Mugabe is near death, but his fitness to serve another full five-year term is highly questionable.

A Post-Mugabe Government
Regardless, the hard work of shaping a new government in Harare will not begin until Mugabe moves on. There has been little success negotiating with the proud and autocratic Mugabe, though neighboring governments -- including South Africa's -- have little trust for or interest in cooperating with Tsvangirai's heavily urban, labor-oriented party, due to fears that their own liberation-era parties could be similarly threatened by upstart labor activists. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front would be pushed to moderate, to reduce the power of the military and security establishment and to rebuild the formal economy. Slowly liberalizing the Zimbabwean economy would facilitate a recovery since, given the country's extensive mining and agriculture resources, regional and international investors would likely be willing to return.

South Africa views Zimbabwe as essentially its 10th province and one worth safeguarding for political and economic reasons. Pretoria would like to tap into Zimbabwe's mining and agriculture wealth and its consumer base while relieving the strain heavy flows of Zimbabwean immigrants have placed on South African social services. South Africa would also like to reduce the pressure placed on it by the international community to bring about a responsible government in Harare.

Pretoria has found that it cannot subvert Mugabe, in part because the president provided extensive patronage to South Africa's ruling African National Congress during the party's struggle against apartheid. And the South African government will not want to empower Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change. Thus, by supporting the Zimbabwean elections, South Africa believes it could retain its ability to shape and influence Harare's successor government after the elections.