Mujuru's political obituary? Don't write her off yet!!

ALTHOUGH she has been sent packing into what could be political oblivion that seems to have caught her by surprise, former vice president, Joice Mujuru, should not be written off as yet, analysts have said. Having entered politics at the tender age of 15, Mujuru took her place among fellow combatants in the country's protracted liberation struggle, returning at the end of that war only to land on her two feet in government as the youngest minister at independence.

She was the only woman in Cabinet, and one of two women in government - the other one was Naomi Nhiwatiwa, a deputy minister (deputies do not sit in Cabinet). A protégée of President Robert Mugabe, Mujuru rose through the ranks, holding different ministerial portfolios.  At one time she was appointed a governor so "she could familiarise herself with grassroots governance issues" the Financial Gazette understands.

But the time to dispose of her by her mentor reached a crescendo this October when the First Lady, Grace Mugabe, pushed ferociously for it to occur, threatening that if the President did not "baby dump" Mujuru she would do it herself. On allegations of plotting against the President, which point to her harbouring presidential ambitions outside of the President; Mujuru was blocked from getting a Central Committee position before being relieved of her duties as Vice President.

As the nation looks back at the developments of the last few weeks leading to her ouster, Ibbo Mandaza, an academic and publisher, said he could not believe what has transpired. "We are still astounded," he said. Mandaza had said there did not seem to be anything anybody could do about Mujuru's vice presidency except to accept her position as a thing of the past. Out of the influential party organs — the Central Committee and Politburo, the highest decision-making body outside congress — and chucked out of government, the political wilderness beckons for Mujuru.

However, analysts said this week that it was not yet time to write a political obituary for the widowed ex-combatant. "She has said she will always be in the party. To me that is an indication her political star has not waned yet," political commentator, Lawton Hikwa told the Financial Gazette. "She may not be in the structures, but I do not think she can be just wished away given her background before and after independence."

Senior researcher for Southern Africa, Human Rights Watch, Dewa Mavhinga agrees that Mujuru is not yet history. "It is very premature to pen Joice Mujuru's political obituary as she still enjoys massive support within Zanu-PF and among the generality of Zimbabweans, many of whom sympathise with her as a widow facing cruel and unfair treatment at the hands of Zanu-PF," Mavhinga said.

According to Mavhinga, the sun is yet to set on Mujuru's political career. "There is a lot of fluidity and political uncertainty at the moment for Mujuru to be written off," he said. Although Mujuru's credentials as a formidable combatant with a long history in the party and government are there for all to see, what has been in question, however, has been whether or not she can survive outside of President Mugabe.

Now that the roof above her head has been rudely snatched from her, what are her chances of survival as a politician in her own right? "Mujuru should survive outside of (President) Mugabe like all others that have been demoted, suspended or fired from the party and government before," Hikwa said. "Unless they have valid reasons to want to hold on to their positions. The party structures made their decisions, and those, it seems will hold into the foreseeable future."

A glimmer of hope for Mujuru and others who have been expelled from government lies is that they are not the first ones to meet that fate at the hands of President Mugabe.  Many of those that have in the past been cast out have lived to prove that there can be another life after being in the political dustbin following their political "resurrection" by President Mugabe.
Former energy minister Dzikamai Mavhaire was once relegated to the political wilderness after saying, "Mugabe should go" before being given another chance last year.

Former ICT minister Webster Shamu was sidelined after his involvement in a vehicle scandal in the 80s. He bounced back with a bang in 2014.  Information Minister, Jonathan Moyo, was banished into the political wilderness after his involvement in the Tsholotsho debacle which in 2004 saw a clique of party hawks accused of plotting against the President. He was welcomed back into the party in 2011.

These, among a few others, were not only co-opted into the party, but were even catapulted to high positions in government and in the party. However, it has been noted, that life in the political wilderness itself can be unkind to cadres used to the Zanu-PF shade. "Looking at the history of the performance of Zanu-PF political outcasts like the late Edgar Tekere of ZUM, and Simba Makoni of Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn, it would appear that life after Zanu-PF is generally very difficult and chances of making it big politically alone are slim," said Mavhinga.

What makes Mujuru's case particularly hazardous are the allegations against her which have criminal undertones to them. "Judging by the various accusations in the State media against Mujuru and team, including allegations of plots to murder President Mugabe, and of corruption, it appears Zanu-PF is prepared to persecute Mujuru and her allies to make sure they do not think of an alternative political home. But if Mujuru and her allies boldly regroup and strategically reach out to opposition parties including ZAPU, Mavambo and various MDC factions, the resulting grand coalition might easily topple Zanu-PF in 2018."

Although claims of a possible coalition between the Mujuru camp and members of the opposition have been bandied about across the country, no solid overtures yet have been sniffed out, rendering the matter a wait-and-see kind of situation.