Mugabe provides stability of sorts: Trevor Ncube

In a December 15 meeting, Trevor Ncube, publisher of The Independent and The Standard as well as the Mail and Guardian in South Africa told the US Ambassador about his successful legal efforts to get back his passport.

Ncube added that the government of Zimbabwe was determined to curb the independent press but that its propaganda machine had become increasingly ineffective. He said the CIO and other securicrats were running the country but had no solutions and knew their time in power was short. They were out to steal as much as possible and were prepared to do whatever it took to stay in power as long as possible. This was revealed  in a leaked US cable.

A weakened government propaganda machine
Ncube told the US Ambassador that circulation was down and that his papers were no longer profitable. However, he was committed to helping maintain an independent media in Zimbabwe. He said he had been told by a source in the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO) that the real target of the passport seizures was the independent media, which the government was determined to crack down on. Ncube confirmed that many journalists already practiced some self-censorship and that the passport seizures could have a chilling effect.
 
However, Ncube said two factors were working in favor of the independent media. The first was the courage of the young journalists on the staffs of his newspapers, who were determined to expose government wrong doing despite the risks. The second was the weakness of the current leadership of the government's propaganda machine, whom Ncube called clowns and bozos, especially in comparison to the clever if unscrupulous Jonathan Moyo. Ncube said George Charamba and the other leaders lacked sophistication.
 
A weak, divided and corrupt government
Ncube said the CIO, like the rest of ZANU-PF, was split over the succession issue between supporters of the Mujurus and supporters of Emmerson Mnangagwa. Ncube added that the CIO as a whole hated the Intelligence Minister, Didymus Mutasa, and that morale was increasingly low within the organization. The US Ambassador, noting that morale was also supposedly low within the military and the police, asked how much longer the government could last. Ncube responded that the tipping point was coming. Sooner or later the country would erupt, either as a result of shortages, such as food or water, or inflation and economic decline, or some other factor. The only thing lacking now was a spark.

Holding the government accountable 
Ncube said, however, that the opposition MDC was also weak and divided and would be unable to control a spontaneous uprising. He feared the consequences of such an event, which could be used as an excuse by the military or the CIO to take power in their own right. Paradoxically, Mugabe provided stability of sorts and his sudden death could destabilize the country and produce a similar result. In that regard, Ncube noted that for the first time military names were being mentioned as potential successors to Mugabe.