Chamisa looks more strategic to assume MDC Presidency

When you are making an analysis or research you don't have to take a bias towards any research, but to use qualitative and quantitative methods on the ground. From the observation on the ground, it looks like Chamisa is the most favourite politician to take over from Tsvangirai. Political dynamics in the main opposition MDC T led by ailing Tsvangirai clearly reveals Advocate Chamisa as the main contender. Those who may want to dismiss Chamisa do it at your own peril. I would suggest most MDC senior politicians should prepare to rally behind this young if they are to secure their positions. Whilst there could be more party hawks who may be interested, but current dynamics clearly shows Chamisa's name coming on the top. As a political analyst, policymaker and researcher, it is now clear that Tsvangirai was grooming the young vibrant turkey to take over from him. Going to the Congress for MDC maybe a formality for them but I don't see MDC going later than February before announcing their choice. In fact, a congress will be a formality to endorse Chamisa as the main candidate. If you observe from the political terraces you can clearly see that Chamisa has the charisma and political clout to arouse any difficult circumstance and situation. He is more of a political dynamite and removing such dynamism from him may sound more and very difficult. It looks like Tsvangirai anointed Chamisa by assigning him a critical role to lead the alliance during his absence. Whilst many MDC activists may deny this fact, it was not more of delegating work, but it was a strategic appointment for him. Tsvangirai could not name Chamisa as his successor for fear of sparking tension within his movement, but he made a strategic appointment so that the whole MDC constituency may interpret it in a correct way. It was a mature way of assigning his heir. Apparently, Chamisa is Tsvangirai's preferred heir on this succession journey. My observation is Tsvangirai may have wanted to take a retreat and observe silently. It is an obvious case that Tsvangirai has planted a team of observers on the ground to assess the potential successor to see if he can manage the succession heat.

ALLIANCE REPRESENTATIVE
Tsvangirai appointed Chamisa to lead the alliance meetings during his absence from those crucial meetings, and he appointed Mudzuri to be the acting President of Tsvangirai led movement. Whilst the Mudzuri's role may appear to be a bigger position but it is not strategic especially that we are going towards elections. In other words, Mudzuri is just a caretaker, positioned there to take care of a seat which will be assumed by someone. The appointments are pregnant with a lot of meaning. To me, I think Tsvangirai may not have told Chamisa that you will be my successor but I think he was carefully handling his succession battle in a more diplomatic manner to avoid a split. Whilst most people may label the former trade unionist as uneducated, but he has the intellectual capacity to deal with intellectuals for strategic reasons. If you go beyond MDC formation and splits you discover that Tsvangirai is gifted, he has the language of command on him. Whilst he is observing from the background, he commands a lot of influence, such that all MDC structures are likely to go by his word.

POLITICAL CLOUT
In Tsvangirai's movement, I think Tsvangirai himself made a research and came to a conclusion that Chamisa could be the best option to lead for now, given the political clout and charisma he has in the opposition movement. If you make an assessment of the two rallies Chamisa addressed, the Epworth and Sakubva rally, you may not have any problem with him, he knows all the gestures, body language of a politician is good, he is self-composed, he has the political clout, he knows where to use both languages Shona and English, signs of communication, and he has an appeal. He is already nicknamed SAVE the totem for Tsvangirai, and some could be heard chanting slogans such as Tsvangirai chete chete meaning he might be their preferred choice for Presidency. Age is on his side, and he still has the energy, despite being an advocate, VP and lawmaker he knows how to balance the equation and how to attend to pressing matters. Chamisa is regarded as highly intellectual to deal with an opponent, if you follow parliamentary proceedings very well, he knows how to articulate questions, the way he responded to General VP Chiwenga was very strategic and level-headed.

THOKOZANI KHUPE & MUDZURI
Khupe is a good leader, she has it all to lead but her main challenge could be her recent fallout with Tsvangirai over alliance deal may not be favourable for her to lead. What I would have suggested is for Khupe to continue participating in the alliance meetings and air her grievances within the party structures. Her boycott of party meetings maybe viewed as rebellion and her opponents may also take advantage of that to broaden their political careers. Whilst she maybe of influence within the party and Matabeleland, it may be very difficult for her to ascend for the presidency. Khupe is diplomatic, age is good on her side, but her major challenge is tribal ethnic and gender balance. For now, I don't think Zimbabweans are prepared for a female president. It would be ideal for Khupe to form an alliance with Chamisa and secure her VP post and return a share in MATEBELALAND and parliament as well. It was going to be strategic for her and she would lose nothing out of that. She has been a VP before and she would still even continue with that post during the post- Tsvangirai era of politics. Mudzuri is a bit mature, educated as well, but lacks the political clout to arouse the movement. He has been labelled all sorts of names before when he penned a letter to Tsvangirai over his shortcomings, this didn't go down well with Tsvangirai's loyalists who labelled the former Harare mayor as rebellion. He looks more strategic though his main challenge would be supporters to rally behind his name. Mudzuri would be ideal but his major challenge would be the clout within the MDC structures. Mudzuri is more of an admin person who is good at organizing elections. He does not talk too much, very calm but he lacks appeal within the generality of most Zimbabweans.

 

CHAMISA MADE A NAME
Whilst many people label Chamisa as a sellout, here are the secrets which made this young man to have a good brand. Chamisa took his time to study whilst in politics, he went for strategic positions within the party and he managed to position himself very well within the movement. When he was given a ministerial portfolio in the Inclusive Government he performed very well which earned him a lot of respect within and outside the Government. He has managed to interact with all politicians across the political divide. He has managed to stand with activists during bad moments, he has also managed to interact with young people across the political divide. Chamisa is more connected, and well appraised with the current social media. Most MDC politicians focused on their political career, Chamisa managed to go for Law and other key intellectual areas which would help him to build his political career and profile. If you go to the ground, he has more supporters from within and outside the party, which has proved difficult to his counterparts in the Tsvangirai movement. One thing for sure people tend to forget is that SG position is different from Presidency, he might have lost to Mwonzora in the previous 2014 congress but the current dynamics might have shifted, and the supporters might have realized something which the contenders may not have read so far.

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Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo writes in his personal capacity as the Head of Southern Institute of Policy Analysis and Research - SIPAR TRUST, which is responsible for policy analysis and research. He is also an academic and researcher. He holds a BA, MA from Solusi University, and he also holds a Masters of Development Studies from the University of Lusaka, Zambia. He is currently enrolled at University of KwaZulu Natal University in South Africa (PhD in Development Studies). He is also an adviser to many financial and political institutions within and outside Zimbabwe. He can be contacted at southerninstitutepar@gmail.com