Opinion / Columnist
Implications of a sham election for Zimbabwe
03 Mar 2012 at 13:36hrs | Views
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe, who turned 88 in February, has vowed to use his executive powers enshrined in the Constitution to call for fresh polls that will bring closure to the acrimonious government of national unity (GNU). But analysts caution this could lead to another sham election reminiscent of the March 2008 plebiscite.
The veteran politician, who was outpolled by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in the first round of the March 2008 presidential election, got a second bite of the cherry after the premier failed to reach the required threshold to be declared the winner. President Mugabe then controversially won the one-man presidential election run-off after the premier boycotted the race citing violence he says claimed the lives of more than 200 of his supporters.
Several hundreds of thousands of people were displaced from their rural homes because of the violence that accompanied the run-off whose outcome was universally dismissed as a sham, forcing international and regional intervention to end the contestation for power.
The resultant political standoff, which saw Prime Minister Tsvangirai seeking temporary sanctuary in neighbouring Botswana, resulted in the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) taking an active role in Zimbabwe to resolve the impasse.
SADC and the AU were later to facilitate the forging of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) that culminated in the consummation of the present GNU, which President Mugabe now wants ended without fail this year.
While the GPA has set benchmarks for the staging of fresh polls, President Mugabe appears eager to have elections this year with or without a new constitution and other political reforms prescribed in the GPA, whose lifespan expires next year.
"We just must have elections. They just must take place with or without a new constitution. And we will, on our side as a party, we have made a decision, last year at our conference that this year we definitely have an election exercise," President Mugabe said in a televised interview last Monday.
"If others don't want to have an election then they are free not to participate. Nobody is forced to go to an election but definitely I will exercise my presidential powers in accordance with the main principal law, the Constitution of our country and announce when the election will take place. And I will do this," added the Zanu-PF first secretary.
So serious is the Zanu-PF leader's push for fresh polls this year that he repeated his intentions at a birthday bash held in his honour in the eastern border town of Mutare last Saturday.
His insistence on polls ahead of the expiry of the GNU next year has sparked wild speculation on why he is so eager for elections this year without fail.
Various reasons have been bandied around on why the veteran nationalist wants to terminate the GNU. Some cite his advancing age as one of the many reasons why his party, Zanu-PF, is in a hurry to hold polls now instead of 2013. Others cite the acrimony that has rendered the inclusive government dysfunctional.
There is also a school of thought that believes Prime Minister Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) formation were now ripe for the picking after a somewhat lackadaisical performance in the GNU. The MDC-T has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals with the premier also battling personal setbacks around his controversial marriage to Locadia Karimatsenga, which lasted less than 12 days, as well as his support for gay rights.
Yet others say it is the financial bonanza from the Chiadzwa diamond fields and anticipated benefits from Zanu-PF's indigenisation policy that has galvanised the party's election call.
But on Saturday, President Mugabe scoffed at allegations that he was too old and unhealthy to stand for yet another presidential term.
"I still have the strength. No going back. Forward ever, backwards never," he said, to cheers from the estimated 40 000-strong crowd at Sakubva Stadium, the venue of his birthday celebrations.
With President Mugabe insisting on holding fresh polls with or without a new constitution, analysts point to another sham poll whose outcome would be rejected locally, regionally and internationally.
They say another controversial election does not augur well for the country, which is still battling to recover from a decade-long economic meltdown. Another sham poll is seen further stagnating the economy with the possibility of taking Zimbabwe back to the pre-GNU era where nearly everything was in short supply.
Reverend Useni Sibanda, the executive director of the Zimbabwe Christian Alliance, said the election results would not be legitimate if President Mugabe unilaterally called for a fresh plebiscite especially without a new constitution.
"This means that Zimbabwe will get back to the 2008 scenario where the GPA had to be negotiated," said Sibanda.
The clergyman said he believed that SADC would not tolerate another sham election in Zimbabwe and President Mugabe risked being isolated by the international community.
"We risk creating a time bomb in terms of civil unrest, because the economy will collapse again and this time people may not be patient to wait for it to recover. SADC countries, especially South Africa and Botswana, will also not allow another influx of Zimbabwean refugees into their countries as this has been causing service delivery strains," he added.
Dewa Mavhinga, the regional coordinator of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said another sham election this year would have devastating effects of untold violence and needless suffering of citizens by undoing whatever economic and social progress Zimbabwe had experienced under the inclusive government.
He said elections in the absence of credible reforms meant an extension of the status quo; an indefinite postponement of the democratisation agenda and further entrenchment of Zimbabwe's isolation from the international community.
"To prevent a sham election, Zimbabwe needs a strong, independent Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC); we need a cleaned up and updated voters' roll; we need a professional and well-equipped police force to impartially maintain law and order and uphold the rule of law. Finally, Zimbabwe must open up to domestic and international observers and ensure that SADC freely supervises the elections process to prevent violence or intimidation," added Mavhinga.
But Psychology Maziwisa, a political analyst, said if Zanu-PF and not the MDC-T won the next poll the international community would surely dub it a sham election.
"An election is not rendered questionable just on account of one political party's unwillingness to participate or because of failure, by that party, to win when it had hoped to," he said.
Maziwisa said the fact that President Mugabe has constantly called on Zimbabweans to be tolerant of each other and to shun violence was indicative of a genuine desire on his part to make sure the country holds an election that is at the very least, acceptable to everyone concerned.
"In my opinion, the next election is likely to be called many things, but sham is not one of them. It's just not possible to have a sham election in Zimbabwe. Not in the prevailing circumstances. Of course it would be a huge diplomatic disaster if we are to have a dubious election. There is an expectation within the SADC region for Zimbabwe to do things differently, properly and to respect the wishes of the people. That expectation can only be disregarded at our own peril," he added.
Zanu-PF coalition partners, however, are adamant that President Mugabe has no power to unilaterally set an election date saying such an action would be unconstitutional, insisting that no polls would be held before the crafting of a new constitution, let alone adoption of reforms stipulated in the GPA as well as the election roadmap.
Other reforms stipulated either in the GPA or in the election roadmap include the revision of security and media laws, the cleaning up of the voters roll as well as reconstituting and adequately funding ZEC.
There is also the issue of revising the national youth service, entrenching national healing and reconciliation, opening up the broadcasting sector to private players; operationalising the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission as well as establishing the National Economic Council on top of ensuring the non-selective application of the law.
The legislative agenda, part of which includes effecting electoral amendments that are currently stalled, also needs to be addressed.
Benchmarks set by SADC for holding democratic polls such as political tolerance, freedom of assembly as well as equal access to the state media, which has often faced accusations of promoting hate speech, have not yet been fulfilled, analysts note.
The veteran politician, who was outpolled by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in the first round of the March 2008 presidential election, got a second bite of the cherry after the premier failed to reach the required threshold to be declared the winner. President Mugabe then controversially won the one-man presidential election run-off after the premier boycotted the race citing violence he says claimed the lives of more than 200 of his supporters.
Several hundreds of thousands of people were displaced from their rural homes because of the violence that accompanied the run-off whose outcome was universally dismissed as a sham, forcing international and regional intervention to end the contestation for power.
The resultant political standoff, which saw Prime Minister Tsvangirai seeking temporary sanctuary in neighbouring Botswana, resulted in the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) taking an active role in Zimbabwe to resolve the impasse.
SADC and the AU were later to facilitate the forging of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) that culminated in the consummation of the present GNU, which President Mugabe now wants ended without fail this year.
While the GPA has set benchmarks for the staging of fresh polls, President Mugabe appears eager to have elections this year with or without a new constitution and other political reforms prescribed in the GPA, whose lifespan expires next year.
"We just must have elections. They just must take place with or without a new constitution. And we will, on our side as a party, we have made a decision, last year at our conference that this year we definitely have an election exercise," President Mugabe said in a televised interview last Monday.
"If others don't want to have an election then they are free not to participate. Nobody is forced to go to an election but definitely I will exercise my presidential powers in accordance with the main principal law, the Constitution of our country and announce when the election will take place. And I will do this," added the Zanu-PF first secretary.
So serious is the Zanu-PF leader's push for fresh polls this year that he repeated his intentions at a birthday bash held in his honour in the eastern border town of Mutare last Saturday.
His insistence on polls ahead of the expiry of the GNU next year has sparked wild speculation on why he is so eager for elections this year without fail.
Various reasons have been bandied around on why the veteran nationalist wants to terminate the GNU. Some cite his advancing age as one of the many reasons why his party, Zanu-PF, is in a hurry to hold polls now instead of 2013. Others cite the acrimony that has rendered the inclusive government dysfunctional.
There is also a school of thought that believes Prime Minister Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) formation were now ripe for the picking after a somewhat lackadaisical performance in the GNU. The MDC-T has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals with the premier also battling personal setbacks around his controversial marriage to Locadia Karimatsenga, which lasted less than 12 days, as well as his support for gay rights.
Yet others say it is the financial bonanza from the Chiadzwa diamond fields and anticipated benefits from Zanu-PF's indigenisation policy that has galvanised the party's election call.
But on Saturday, President Mugabe scoffed at allegations that he was too old and unhealthy to stand for yet another presidential term.
"I still have the strength. No going back. Forward ever, backwards never," he said, to cheers from the estimated 40 000-strong crowd at Sakubva Stadium, the venue of his birthday celebrations.
With President Mugabe insisting on holding fresh polls with or without a new constitution, analysts point to another sham poll whose outcome would be rejected locally, regionally and internationally.
They say another controversial election does not augur well for the country, which is still battling to recover from a decade-long economic meltdown. Another sham poll is seen further stagnating the economy with the possibility of taking Zimbabwe back to the pre-GNU era where nearly everything was in short supply.
Reverend Useni Sibanda, the executive director of the Zimbabwe Christian Alliance, said the election results would not be legitimate if President Mugabe unilaterally called for a fresh plebiscite especially without a new constitution.
"This means that Zimbabwe will get back to the 2008 scenario where the GPA had to be negotiated," said Sibanda.
The clergyman said he believed that SADC would not tolerate another sham election in Zimbabwe and President Mugabe risked being isolated by the international community.
"We risk creating a time bomb in terms of civil unrest, because the economy will collapse again and this time people may not be patient to wait for it to recover. SADC countries, especially South Africa and Botswana, will also not allow another influx of Zimbabwean refugees into their countries as this has been causing service delivery strains," he added.
Dewa Mavhinga, the regional coordinator of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said another sham election this year would have devastating effects of untold violence and needless suffering of citizens by undoing whatever economic and social progress Zimbabwe had experienced under the inclusive government.
He said elections in the absence of credible reforms meant an extension of the status quo; an indefinite postponement of the democratisation agenda and further entrenchment of Zimbabwe's isolation from the international community.
"To prevent a sham election, Zimbabwe needs a strong, independent Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC); we need a cleaned up and updated voters' roll; we need a professional and well-equipped police force to impartially maintain law and order and uphold the rule of law. Finally, Zimbabwe must open up to domestic and international observers and ensure that SADC freely supervises the elections process to prevent violence or intimidation," added Mavhinga.
But Psychology Maziwisa, a political analyst, said if Zanu-PF and not the MDC-T won the next poll the international community would surely dub it a sham election.
"An election is not rendered questionable just on account of one political party's unwillingness to participate or because of failure, by that party, to win when it had hoped to," he said.
Maziwisa said the fact that President Mugabe has constantly called on Zimbabweans to be tolerant of each other and to shun violence was indicative of a genuine desire on his part to make sure the country holds an election that is at the very least, acceptable to everyone concerned.
"In my opinion, the next election is likely to be called many things, but sham is not one of them. It's just not possible to have a sham election in Zimbabwe. Not in the prevailing circumstances. Of course it would be a huge diplomatic disaster if we are to have a dubious election. There is an expectation within the SADC region for Zimbabwe to do things differently, properly and to respect the wishes of the people. That expectation can only be disregarded at our own peril," he added.
Zanu-PF coalition partners, however, are adamant that President Mugabe has no power to unilaterally set an election date saying such an action would be unconstitutional, insisting that no polls would be held before the crafting of a new constitution, let alone adoption of reforms stipulated in the GPA as well as the election roadmap.
Other reforms stipulated either in the GPA or in the election roadmap include the revision of security and media laws, the cleaning up of the voters roll as well as reconstituting and adequately funding ZEC.
There is also the issue of revising the national youth service, entrenching national healing and reconciliation, opening up the broadcasting sector to private players; operationalising the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission as well as establishing the National Economic Council on top of ensuring the non-selective application of the law.
The legislative agenda, part of which includes effecting electoral amendments that are currently stalled, also needs to be addressed.
Benchmarks set by SADC for holding democratic polls such as political tolerance, freedom of assembly as well as equal access to the state media, which has often faced accusations of promoting hate speech, have not yet been fulfilled, analysts note.
Source - Fingaz
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