Opinion / Columnist
Afrobarometer Poll counters Chamisa's absurd claims
20 Jul 2018 at 05:54hrs | Views
This morning, with just ten days to go until the election, respected pan-African research organisation AfroBarometer released their latest pre-election poll, showing ED maintaining a 3% lead over Nelson Chamisa.
The Chamisa supporters in the media and social media have already begun spinning this poll for all its worth, noting that he has closed the gap on ED in the past three months. The same people that three months ago were slandering AfroBarometer and questioning its motives, are today extolling its virtues.
And while these Chamisa cheerleaders are correct that their man has gained ground, they are missing the key point.
Of the five opinion polls taken during this campaign, all show ED in the lead. Not one shows anything different. And while one can pick holes in the methodology of some of the polls, the two AfroBarometer surveys, using the best international practices, show a clear ED lead.
There are two main takeaways from this that should not be ignored. First, it is well known that ZANU-PF are masters of the ground game. Put simply, they are experts at turning out their supporters, while MDC are less effective. After all, we all remember the famous Daily News headline in 2013 that Tsvangirai had an unassailable lead in the polls, before he fell to a massive defeat. That is the impact of a good ground game.
In light of this, seasoned observers of Zimbabwean politics have noted that for Chamisa to have a chance, he must have at least a 5% lead in the polls to negate Zanu-PF's superior organisation. And so today, a 3% ED lead is likely to be doubled or tripled on Election Day.
The second, and most significant, point, refers to expectations. For months, Chamisa has been telling us that he is far ahead. He claims that, "if we don't get 70% of the vote, then they would have rigged the election;" "If Mnangagwa wins 5% in a free election, I will give him my sister;" and of course, "The elections are a walkover. I will beat Mnangagwa hands down." For almost six months, Chamisa has been trying desperately to create a narrative whereby, if he fails to win, the only possible explanation would be rigging.
But the big challenge for Chamisa is that the data in no way reflects his claims. The data is showing a close election, but one in which ED is likely (though not certain) to win.
My hope is that this poll calms tensions and moderates the absurd expectations on the MDC side. Chamisa is not going to get 70%, in fact he is unlikely to get 50%, and this doesn't mean that ED rigged the election. It means he won, fair and square. After all, there is no ZEC or ballot paper design in an opinion poll.
So please, let's respect the data, ignore the absurd claims from overexcited politicians, and instead wait and see what happens.
And whoever wins, let's accept it and work together for a better future.
The Chamisa supporters in the media and social media have already begun spinning this poll for all its worth, noting that he has closed the gap on ED in the past three months. The same people that three months ago were slandering AfroBarometer and questioning its motives, are today extolling its virtues.
And while these Chamisa cheerleaders are correct that their man has gained ground, they are missing the key point.
Of the five opinion polls taken during this campaign, all show ED in the lead. Not one shows anything different. And while one can pick holes in the methodology of some of the polls, the two AfroBarometer surveys, using the best international practices, show a clear ED lead.
There are two main takeaways from this that should not be ignored. First, it is well known that ZANU-PF are masters of the ground game. Put simply, they are experts at turning out their supporters, while MDC are less effective. After all, we all remember the famous Daily News headline in 2013 that Tsvangirai had an unassailable lead in the polls, before he fell to a massive defeat. That is the impact of a good ground game.
The second, and most significant, point, refers to expectations. For months, Chamisa has been telling us that he is far ahead. He claims that, "if we don't get 70% of the vote, then they would have rigged the election;" "If Mnangagwa wins 5% in a free election, I will give him my sister;" and of course, "The elections are a walkover. I will beat Mnangagwa hands down." For almost six months, Chamisa has been trying desperately to create a narrative whereby, if he fails to win, the only possible explanation would be rigging.
But the big challenge for Chamisa is that the data in no way reflects his claims. The data is showing a close election, but one in which ED is likely (though not certain) to win.
My hope is that this poll calms tensions and moderates the absurd expectations on the MDC side. Chamisa is not going to get 70%, in fact he is unlikely to get 50%, and this doesn't mean that ED rigged the election. It means he won, fair and square. After all, there is no ZEC or ballot paper design in an opinion poll.
So please, let's respect the data, ignore the absurd claims from overexcited politicians, and instead wait and see what happens.
And whoever wins, let's accept it and work together for a better future.
Source - Mike Tawanda
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