The 2022 national census and the politics of delimitation ahead of 2023 general elections

In Zimbabwe, population and household census is a constitutionally mandated procedure that is significant for several reasons. At its most basic level, a fair census is needed simply to determine how many people there are in Zimbabwe and where they live. Second, an adequate population census, especially with information on demographics, provides an important statistical unit of the population that can be used for planning purposes, such as education, health and retirement planning. Third, census data is important for the allocation of devolution funds set at 5 percent of the national budget as the central government often use population census data as one of the benchmark in distributing devolution funds to provinces.

Arguably, the most important purpose of the census is representation. Section 160-161 of the Constitution, specifically calls for the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) to initiate a delimitation process of electoral boundaries as soon as possible after a population census for the purpose of dividing the country into 210 national assembly constituencies and appropriate number of wards currently at 1,958. Each of the 10 provinces is allocated constituencies and wards depending on the registered voters and other lawful considerations as set out in section 160-161of the Constitution which include population size, geographical features, existing patterns of human settlement and community interest among other factors as instructed by section 160-161of the Constitution. The growth or loss of registered voters in a province affects whether a province gains or loses a contested seat in national assembly or ward. The more registered voters in a province, the more constituencies and wards it is allocated. Therefore census and the number of registered voters can assist Zec to determine whether there is need to have another constituency for instance in Pumula, Bulawayo, to combine them or to let them as they were. In addition, population census gives Zec an estimate of unregistered voters, identify areas for targeted voter education and validate voter registration data among other uses.

The constituencies and wards are required to be numerically similar in population, but can have 20 per cent more or fewer registered voters than the other such constituencies or wards under certain circumstances as set out on Section 161 of the Constitution. This process is called delimitation or redistricting and must be undertaken soon after every population census. Before, the process was conducted by a Delimitation Commission appointed by the President with the last having conducted in 2008.

The strength of each province within the national assembly (through political parties or independent candidates) varies, with several provinces possessing a substantial share of the 210 seats with Harare currently having the highest number of constituencies at 29 and Bulawayo having the least with 12 seats. This simply means Harare has the largest voting population while Bulawayo has the least. As a result Bulawayo has to be worried that imminent delimitation would further eliminate their seats unless more people do not register to vote.

Thus, in Zimbabwe population census data is not necessarily used for direct distribution of constituencies and wards. Rather the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) will use voter registration data for the delimitation process. Hence delimitation is informed by the number of registered voters in that particular constituency.

Since Zimbabwe has a history of contested elections, a constant delimitation process of electoral boundaries is crucial for democracy. This is more important also because the last redrawing of boundaries was in 2008, some 14 years ago. Since then, some constituencies and wards have ballooned while others have shrunk or remained small. Thus, drawing those electoral boundaries is a politically fraught process in Zimbabwe. More often than not, the data on voter registration shifts and boundaries generated for electoral constituencies and wards have been contested and debunked because of accusation of gerrymandering- partisan delimitation in which borders are drawn in a way that concentrate voters of the other party into a small number of constituencies in order to minimise its representation in the national assembly and local authority. This can also be pronounce through a tended to distort the constituencies merging some urban constituencies with peri-urban and rural ones a case in point is Bulawayo South, Harare South, Norton constituency, Marondera Central and Seke among others.

Zec who will later this year start drawing the new boundaries is well aware of the unique power laid on the laps and understand that the constituencies and wards they draw will have to endure for a decade, and that demographic change does not stop when the new lines are drawn. Because of the explosive growth of metro areas in provinces such as Harare, Mashonaland Central Mashonaland East, and Midlands, rural constituencies that the Zanu PF can win in the near term might not remain winnable for long.

Gerrymandering is not a problem unique to Zimbabwe. Evidence shows that in Australia, Canada, Kenya, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States (U.S) political parties thrive on manipulation of electoral boundaries to their advantage. For instance in 2018 the powerful U.S Supreme Court was petitioned to declare gerrymandering unconstitutional. In 2019, the court refused to stop gerrymandering in a 5-4 decision based on ideological lines with the Republicans appointed justices in the majority while the Democratic appointees in the minority.

The delimitation exercise in Zimbabwe should therefore be completed at least six months before the next election otherwise, the whole process will become 'purely academic' in respect of 2023 general election under normal circumstance. However, it is unclear whether the process will pass at all, much less in time so as not to affect the 2023 elections. As a result, timing of the 2023 general election and timeframe of the delimitation process are therefore an important puzzle.

We know that the Constitution on section 161 (1) says that the delimitation exercise follows as soon as possible after the national population and housing census. Now that we know census can will be conducted from 21-30 April 2022 and soon after release of census data, delimitation begin. We now want to know the final date for publication of the final delimitation report in the Government Gazette before the 2023 harmonised election. Again we assume the elections are conducted under normal circumstance. To do this we have to first understand the timing of the 2023 general elections.

We know that Section 143 (1) of the Constitution says that under normal circumstance parliament is elected for a period of five years which runs from the date on which the President-elect is sworn in and assumes office. It is public knowledge that the President was sworn in on 26 August 2018 so the five-year term of Parliament ends at midnight 25 August 2023 (remember the key words are 'under normal circumstance'). Furthermore, if section 158 says that general election cannot be held not more than 30 days "before the expiry of the five-year period (in this case to midnight 25 August 2023). If we count 30 days backwards from 25 August 2023 then the earliest date for 2023 general election is therefore 27 July 2023 and the last date that the President can proclaim is 25 August 2023.

Then if the Constitution (section 161) says that if a delimitation of electoral boundaries is completed less than six months before polling day in a general election (in this case any date from 27 July 2023 to 25 August 2023), then the boundaries will therefore "not apply to that election", meaning "the boundaries that existed immediately before the delimitation are applicable" in this case the 2008 delaminated constituencies. Therefore the only logical conclusion is that the imminent delimitation process should be concluded and undergo all the other statutory processes (which are a subject of another day) at least six months before 25 August 2023. The long and short part of the story is that the Zec' s new electoral boundaries contained in the delimitation report should be published in the Government Gazette on or before 25 February 2023 or otherwise as alluded above the new electoral boundaries will not be used in the 2023 general election (under normal circumstance).

In conclusion, the 2022 population census will have bearings on future general election that will test the viability, fairness, and legitimacy of Zec as the delimitation commission. Thus, a census that adequately and accurately counts the population effectively help Zec allocates political power for political parties and independent candidates through constituencies and wards, especially if the count increases the population and thereby enhances representation in the national assembly and local authority level. As populations and registered voters of one province change compared to others, so does the relative electoral power or influence.

Additionally, a credible delimitation process fosters political equality and actively encourages the inclusion of eligible voters.

When the delimitation process is fair and transparent, it can increase the legitimacy of an election. Alternatively, when the electoral boundary marking is poorly executed or does not provide equal opportunities for participation, it can cast doubts on the legitimacy of an entire election. Apart from voter registration process, civil society organisations often use the delimitation process to and understand the degree to which different segments of a population are over-or underrepresented in the in the voters roll and also help determine whether the overall process was fair and inclusive. However, the burden (of proof) is squarely on the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (Zimstat) who have to timeously release the 2022 national population data and maps. Therefore these are opening stages of what will be a broad and concerted 2023 general elections campaign.

Farai Chirimumimba is freelance journalist-Democracy, Election and Gender Issues.