Inside Elections: Stalemate in Manicaland? Perhaps not

This is the second in a series of (inside elections) articles examining the politics and voting patterns of 2023 general election expected swing/marginal National Assembly constituencies.

To win an election in Zimbabwe, a candidate must get at least one more vote than their opponent. Parties have therefore focused on two groups when debating electoral strategy: base and swing voters. With political polarisation rising ever higher, readers may be forgiven for assuming that swing voters are a dying breed. In reality, they have been kept relevant by tight elections in which a small number of them can decide the outcome.

Having said that, it cannot and must not escape our minds that voters can demonstrate their ability to swing an election as was the case in 2018 presidential election when Manicaland province delivered a seemingly groundbreaking presidential election result at face value. An evenly and hotly divided Manicaland gave MDC-Alliance candidate Nelson Chamisa a razor thin victory posting 296,429 ballots against President Mnangagwa's 292,938 votes - in what was a "sharp, sweet and controversial "victory, if we are to borrow from what BBC said of Kenya 2022 presidential election. Whether or not we can safely say voters in Manicaland ran the race and indeed rewarded us with an epic finale in a swing/marginal fashion remain debatable because of the questionable voting patterns in some constituencies. A classic example is Mutare North were the ZANU-PF candidate cruised past MDC-Alliance by 6,511 votes to 3,692 votes in the parliamentary race, while in the presidential race Emmerson Mnangagwa defeated Nelson Chamisa by 18,999 votes to 12,014 ballots. In total, according to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC)'s official figures, the number of people who voted in the parliamentary race in Mutare North is 14,063 whereas the total number of voters in the presidential race in the same constituency is 32,880.

Tellingly, these figures shows that an astonishinging 18,817 voters literally decided to only vote in the presidential election but not in the parliamentary ballot - how is that even possible? The difference in both situations is unique and unusual. In fact, is very shocking and disturbing and cannot be easiely explained away. The point to underscore here is that Zimbabwe has a rich history of disputed election results.

In the circumstances, it's neither hear nor there as conclusions depend on which school of thought you subscribe to with some of the view that although we were made to believe that Chamisa took Manicaland by a narrow margin of victory, the gap may have been much wider and solid. Having no other data to verify with we can only conclude that Manicaland is a swing, marginal or battleground province that is incredibly unpredictable; can possibly decide the next president and the balance in parliament in the general election later this year. It therefore not suprising that in a research article titled: "Learning electoral geography? Party campaigning, constituency marginality and voting at the 2010 British general election", Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie opined that: "The voters that matter are,those who live in the places that matter - the marginal"(swing) seats. Most elections are won and lost by the decisions of a small percentage of the electorate (the 'swing voters') in a relatively small percentage of the constituencies."

Going forward, the 2023 Manicaland National Assembly election map presents a daunting challenge for the opposition. Time will tell if it proves to be insurmountable. ZANU-PF, which currently holds a huge 20-6 majority, must defend all 26 seats up for grabs in the imminent general election. That means the opposition need a net gain of about 20 seats, depending on which party wins most swing and safe constituencies.

The most favorable political terrain for the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) runs through five safe seats that MDC-Alliance carried in 2018 Dangamvura-Chikanga which has been split into Chikanga and Dangamvura where in 2018 parliamentary election a fired-up MDC-Alliance absolutely crushed ZANU-PF winning by 32,381votes (making Dangamvura-Chikanga the third most safest seat in Zimbabwe after Chiredzi North-35,893 votes and Goromonzi South- 32,423) while ZANU-PF managed a disappointing 9,856 votes. In the presidential election, flying high Chamisa grabbed his fourth highest nationwide total on record of 37,370 votes (after Harare South, Goromonzi South and Epworth in that order were he leaped highest) with Mnangagwa settling for an unfavourable 11,750 votes. Other safe seats include Makoni Central, MDC-Alliance candidate David Tekeshe cruised to victory by 12,531votes with Patrick Anthony Chinamasa of ZANU-PF receiving 9,256 votes. In the presidential race Chamisa scored 13,455 while Mnangagwa got 8,307 votes.

In Mutare Central constituency Innocent Tinashe Gonese of MDC-Alliance easily defeated ZANU-PF's Nancy Saungweme by 11,950 to 5,684 votes. In the presidential race Chamisa cruised past Mnangagwa by 13,988 against 4,370 votes. The opposition has a comfortable majority, meaning that there is little uncertainty surrounding the outcome before the official campaign begins. It should be emphasised upfront that a safe seat does not remain safe forever especially with the recent delimitation excercise that altered some boundaries. There is therefore a reasonable chance that ZANU-PF can flip an opposition safe seat and vice versa. In all the seats, it depends on whether the opposition has incumbents with unique political brands who could again have crossover appeal with voters in a re-election race or field a mixture of both new and familiar faces. And the CCC could face messy primary fights in some of the safe constituencies, which may be deplorable but hardly uncommon for an political party under public scrutiny - leaving the eventual nominees weakened heading into the general election.

Beyond that, the opposition is defending National Assembly seats in a handful of pivotal battlegrounds - And a lot of the ZANU-PF seats are incredibly safe, there are perhaps eight swing seats with a majority less than 2,500. We have taken the results for the 2018 general election and applied them to the redrawn constituencies of 2023. The purpose is to give a rough idea of how today's constituencies would look if everyone voted in exactly the same way as they did in 2018. The normal working definition for a swing/marginal seat is one where the majority is under 10 percent, which usually means under about 5,000 votes - although that does depend on turnout and the size of the constituency. Then, within that group of seats, there are the ultra-swing/marginal seats: places where the majority is under 2 percent - about 1,000 votes.

To calculate the swing required for an individual seat to be lost by the incumbent party, we look at the majority of the winning party at the previous election over the second-placed party, say 8.4 percent, and divide this by two, which gives us 4.2 percent and that is the minimum swing required for the seat to change hands. This is what is refered to as swing; the percentage of votes required for a party to lose their seat to the next most popular party. For the purpose of this artcle, we will use under 5 percent or under about 2,500 votes for swing constituencies because of the turnout and the size of the constituenies in Zimbabwe. Using under 10 percent margin would mean almost all constituencies in Zimbabwe are swing. As a result, in Manicaland there are eight swing seats, using the under 5 percent definition, out of a total of 26 constituencies:

Chimanimani West 2018 result: ZANU-PF,10757 - MDC-Alliance 9,199. Majority: 1,558. Swing required: about 3.8 percent. Swing required is the percentage of votes in this case 1,558 people that in 2018 voted for ZANU-PF that MDC- Alliance will have to convince to 'swing vote' for them to win Chimanimani West in the upcoming 2023 parliamentary election.

In Chipinge East 2018 result: MDC-Alliance, 8,967 to ZANU-PF's 8,349. Majority: 618.Swing required: about 1.7 percent.

Another swing is Chipinge South 2018 result: ZANU-PF, 9,382 and MDC-Alliance, 7,870. Majority:1,512. Swing required: about 3.6 percent.

Another swing is Chipinge West 2018 result: MDC- Alliance, 8,754 to ZANU-PF's 6,475. Majority: 2279. Swing required: about 4.17 percent when we factor in its merger with Musikavanhu constituency.

Mutasa Central, MDC-Alliance, 11,919 to ZANU-PFs 9,621 votes.Majority: 2,298. Swing required: about 5 percent.

Another swing is Mutasa North 2018: Mutasa North-ZANU-PF-11,913 against MDC-Alliance 11,635 votes. Majority: 278. Swing required: about 0.55 percent. Making Mutasa North the third most marginal seat in Zimbabwe after Chegutu West (majority-17 votes) and Murehwa South (majority-155 votes).

In Mutasa South MDC-Alliance received 14,783 to ZANU-PF's 13,736. Majority: 1047.Swing required: about 3.5 percent. Makoni West can also be considered a swing because the opposition lost the seat due to vote spliting. ZANU-PF won the seat with 7,772 votes while a combined effort of MDC-Alliance and MDC-T 4,530 and 2,507 votes respectively. A combined effort will have produced 7,037 votes. About 700 votes short of victory but enough to make the seat a swing. In the presidential race Chamisa garnered 7,548 votes against Mnangagwa's 7,321. A difference of 221 making the seat one of the most marginal seat in the presidential election. All are expected to be fiercely contested, with Chipinge West merged with the Musikavanhu constituency whics was a swing offering the potential for an unpredictable three-way race if MDC-Alliance incumbent Sibonile Nyamuteza seeks reelection.

Given the overlay of the presidential race, these contests are most likely to see outsize attention with high-profile campaign visits, making them more connected to the national crosscurrents. If the CCC are searching for targets to offset potential losses, their options maybe limited. Chikanga and Dangamvura-both yellow-leaning constituencies-offer the best opportunities along side Mutare Central.

Defeating President Mnangagwa in a presidential year could pose an even greater test. As the cycle gets underway, how these swing races play out could depend on several factors. While all signs point to most opposition CCC incumbents seeking re-election, the party is yet to formally finalise the list. The 2023 presidential field is only just starting to take shape, with Chamisa and Mnangagwa clear front-runners for now. Aside from the eventual nominees, the overall environment and mood of the country will also help shape contests up and down the ballot as well as the central campaign issues.

The state of the Zimbabwean economy is a constant priority for voters. There are signs that culture issues, including traditional leaders rights and roles , are poised to drive the debate within the CCC and ZANU-PF campaigns and could emerge as general election flashpoints.

In Manicaland, the MDC-Alliance parliamentary drive was unable to capitalise on what appeared to be a more favorable general environment for them in 2018 with or without major electoral reforms, in part because of vote splitting and flawed candidates, several of whom were alleged elevated by the party hierachy. Already this year, CCC leader Nelson Chamisa and other top officials have sent signals that candidates will come from the people albeit through a strange selection process that saw people get involved in primaries though consensus nomination of candidates. Only time will tell whether the selection process meant avoiding nominees who could cost the party in the general election. As we are within the last 90 days, with many twists and turns ahead, the right plan followed by proper execution is key. But based on experts reporting, registered voters figures and historical data about how Manicaland and candidates have performed, ZANU-PF might already have 13 safe seats while CCC has five leaving a balance of eight swing seats out of a total of 26 National Assembly seats in Manicaland. What this means is the CCC has to strive to win all the eight swing seats to at least go level with ZANU-PF. We should remember that the safe seats are even more difficult to win but anything can happen. Therefore with available evidence we are not certain whether or not a stalemate is a possibility in Manicaland. What we are certain is that race for the Manicaland is in the eye of the beholder.

Farai Chirimumimba is a freelance journalist -Democracy, Elections and Gender issues.