Opinion / Columnist
Factional fighting in ZANU PF: Is Mnangagwa's quest for power putting Zimbabwe at risk?
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IN 2017, Simon Khaya Moyo, the then ZANU-PF spokesperson, described Emmerson Mnangagwa as "dishonest," "divisive," and "deceptive" when the ruling party dismissed him.
Today, these descriptors are once again relevant as the internal dynamics of ZANU-PF spiral into factional battles.
Vice President Constantino Chiwenga's faction is gaining ground, largely due to suspicions that Mnangagwa intends to extend his presidency beyond the constitutionally mandated two terms, creating tension between the two leaders.
Historical examples from other African countries, where similar power struggles between presidents and their deputies have led to civil conflict, serve as a stark warning for Zimbabwe.
Mnangagwa's Ambition and the Constitutional Provisions on Term Limits
The 2013 Constitution, established to prevent the accumulation of excessive executive power, clearly limits a president to two terms.
Section 91(2) prohibits any individual from serving more than two terms in office, whilst section 95(2b) clearly stipulates each term as five years.
This measure was designed to safeguard Zimbabwe from another prolonged leadership, like Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule.
Despite this constitutional safeguard, the "ED 2030" campaign, reportedly supported by Mnangagwa's inner circle, seeks to extend his presidency beyond 2028.
This has led to significant unrest within ZANU-PF.
To directly receive articles from Tendai Ruben Mbofana, please join his WhatsApp Channel on: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaqprWCIyPtRnKpkHe08
Mnangagwa's reluctance to publicly shut down these efforts has fuelled factionalism, with the Chiwenga faction growing increasingly anxious about the president's intentions.
His three half-hearted pledges to step down at the end of his tenure have failed to convince anyone largely due to the continued "ED 2030" push by supporters.
There is even talk of machinations to amend the ZANU PF during the upcoming conference in Bulawayo for one of the party's vice presidents to be female.
This is understandably believed to be targeted at Chiwenga.
The Chiwenga Factor and Growing Support for Adherence to the Constitution
Vice President Chiwenga's ambitions to succeed Mnangagwa were expected to manifest only after 2028, once Mnangagwa completed his constitutionally mandated two terms.
However, as rumours of Mnangagwa's desire to extend his stay circulate, Chiwenga has moved to defend the constitutional order.
A faction of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA), a powerful political force, has openly challenged Mnangagwa's schemes.
ZNLWVA Bulawayo Provincial Executive Committee Chairperson Dominic Mhlanga expressed the association's dismay at what he described as a reckless push by "misguided individual elements" within Zanu PF, "prone to an unconstitutional resolve."
The leader of another faction the ZNLWVA, Andreas Ethan Mathibela, has urged ZANU PF to establish a clear succession plan for selecting its next leader, rather than amending the constitution to allow President Mnangagwa to remain in office until 2030.
Retired Major General Gibson Mashingaidze, a war veteran, also spoke out against the push for a third term, urging President Mnangagwa to remain faithful to the Constitution.
They have all called on Mnangagwa to respect the Constitution and vacate office in 2028.
Other political actors and civil society groups have also made similar demands, concerned about the erosion of democracy.
Factionalism in ZANU PF and the Role of Mnangagwa's Deception
The division between Mnangagwa's supporters and Chiwenga's backers mirrors past factional battles in ZANU PF.
In April 2015, then vice president Joice Mujuru was expelled from ZANU PF over allegations she plotted to remove then president Mugabe.
This push to have Mujuru removed from both her positions in the ruling party and government was instigated by Mnangagwa with the assistance of Mugabe's wife Grace.
In an ironical twist of face, typical of ZANU PF politics, not too long afterwards, the two, Grace and Mnangagwa (the latter who had replaced Mujuru as vice president) were at each other's throats as they fought to succeed the nonagenarian leader.
The climax was the Mnangagwa's own sacking as from his ZANU PF and government position on 5th November 2017 by Mugabe, culminating in the military coup d'état that ousted Mugabe two weeks later.
Mnangagwa became the new president of Zimbabwe.
Today, we find ourselves in the midst of another potentially explosive scenario.
Mnangagwa's "dishonesty" and failure to clarify his political intentions have deepened distrust, particularly among those who believe his ambitions threaten the party's unity and Zimbabwe's constitutional order.
Power Struggles in Africa: Examples of Conflict Between Presidents and Deputies
The ongoing tension between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga is not unique to Zimbabwe.
Across Africa, power struggles between presidents and their deputies have often escalated into violent conflict, destabilizing entire nations.
South Sudan's descent into civil war began with a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar.
The conflict began when Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup, leading to the dismissal of the vice president in July 2013 .
Ethnic tensions between Kiir's Dinka group and Machar's Nuer group fuelled the conflict, which erupted into full-scale civil war.
What started as a political rivalry between a president and his deputy has resulted in one of Africa's most devastating conflicts, with tens of thousands killed and millions displaced.
The rivalry between Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and his deputy, Hassan al-Turabi, illustrates another example of how power struggles can lead to conflict.
Turabi, initially an ally of al-Bashir, began to challenge the president's authority, calling for constitutional reforms that would limit al-Bashir's power.
As a response, in late 1999, al-Bashir dissolved the parliament and declared a state of emergency, leading to years of political instability.
This power struggle set the stage for further divisions that contributed to Sudan's long-standing internal conflicts.
In Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial decision to run for a third term in 2015 triggered widespread violence and political instability.
His deputy, Gervais Rufyikiri, along with several other high-ranking officials, opposed Nkurunziza's bid for a third term, citing constitutional term limits.
Nkurunziza's persistence led to large-scale protests, a failed coup attempt, and the eventual exile of many political leaders, including his deputy.
The crisis in Burundi underscored the dangers of leaders attempting to extend their grip on power beyond constitutional limits.
These examples demonstrate the dangers of allowing political rivalries between presidents and their deputies to fester.
In many cases, what begins as a political dispute can quickly escalate into violence, destabilizing entire countries and leading to long-term conflict.
The Growing Security Threat in Zimbabwe
The role of the military in Zimbabwean politics, particularly in light of Chiwenga's history as a former commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF), adds a layer of complexity to the current power struggle.
The military's influence, combined with Chiwenga's significant support within the ranks, raises concerns about the possibility of another military intervention.
Should Mnangagwa pursue constitutional amendments to extend his presidency, there is a real possibility that the military, many of whom remain loyal to Chiwenga, could intervene.
Zimbabwe's history of military involvement in politics, most recently in 2017, underscores the volatility of the current situation.
Broader Implications for Governance and the Rule of Law
If Mnangagwa and his supporters succeed in altering the Constitution to allow him to run for a third term, it would represent a significant erosion of the rule of law in Zimbabwe.
This will also set a terrible precedence that the country's supreme law can be altered at the whims of a power-hungry leader, which does not auger well for both democracy and constitutionalism.
The current factional struggle is already weakening the government's ability to address key issues, such as the economy, and undermining public trust in democratic processes.
Like in other African nations, the potential for civil unrest and violence is real if the political impasse is not resolved.
The factional infighting within ZANU PF could spill into the streets, further destabilizing the country's fragile political and economic systems.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Zimbabwe's Political Stability
The ongoing power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga is a ticking time bomb that could have catastrophic consequences for Zimbabwe.
The factionalism within ZANU PF, coupled with Mnangagwa's refusal to firmly commit to stepping down in 2028, is setting the stage for a potential conflict.
Zimbabwe must look to the lessons of other African nations where power struggles between presidents and their deputies have led to civil conflict, often with devastating consequences.
For Zimbabwe's future stability and peace, it is crucial that Mnangagwa respects the Constitution and avoids the temptation to extend his presidency beyond 2028.
© Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. Please feel free to WhatsApp or Call: +263715667700 | +263782283975, or email: mbofana.tendairuben73@gmail.com, or visit website: https://mbofanatendairuben.news.blog/
Today, these descriptors are once again relevant as the internal dynamics of ZANU-PF spiral into factional battles.
Vice President Constantino Chiwenga's faction is gaining ground, largely due to suspicions that Mnangagwa intends to extend his presidency beyond the constitutionally mandated two terms, creating tension between the two leaders.
Historical examples from other African countries, where similar power struggles between presidents and their deputies have led to civil conflict, serve as a stark warning for Zimbabwe.
Mnangagwa's Ambition and the Constitutional Provisions on Term Limits
The 2013 Constitution, established to prevent the accumulation of excessive executive power, clearly limits a president to two terms.
Section 91(2) prohibits any individual from serving more than two terms in office, whilst section 95(2b) clearly stipulates each term as five years.
This measure was designed to safeguard Zimbabwe from another prolonged leadership, like Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule.
Despite this constitutional safeguard, the "ED 2030" campaign, reportedly supported by Mnangagwa's inner circle, seeks to extend his presidency beyond 2028.
This has led to significant unrest within ZANU-PF.
To directly receive articles from Tendai Ruben Mbofana, please join his WhatsApp Channel on: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaqprWCIyPtRnKpkHe08
Mnangagwa's reluctance to publicly shut down these efforts has fuelled factionalism, with the Chiwenga faction growing increasingly anxious about the president's intentions.
His three half-hearted pledges to step down at the end of his tenure have failed to convince anyone largely due to the continued "ED 2030" push by supporters.
There is even talk of machinations to amend the ZANU PF during the upcoming conference in Bulawayo for one of the party's vice presidents to be female.
This is understandably believed to be targeted at Chiwenga.
The Chiwenga Factor and Growing Support for Adherence to the Constitution
Vice President Chiwenga's ambitions to succeed Mnangagwa were expected to manifest only after 2028, once Mnangagwa completed his constitutionally mandated two terms.
However, as rumours of Mnangagwa's desire to extend his stay circulate, Chiwenga has moved to defend the constitutional order.
A faction of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA), a powerful political force, has openly challenged Mnangagwa's schemes.
ZNLWVA Bulawayo Provincial Executive Committee Chairperson Dominic Mhlanga expressed the association's dismay at what he described as a reckless push by "misguided individual elements" within Zanu PF, "prone to an unconstitutional resolve."
The leader of another faction the ZNLWVA, Andreas Ethan Mathibela, has urged ZANU PF to establish a clear succession plan for selecting its next leader, rather than amending the constitution to allow President Mnangagwa to remain in office until 2030.
Retired Major General Gibson Mashingaidze, a war veteran, also spoke out against the push for a third term, urging President Mnangagwa to remain faithful to the Constitution.
They have all called on Mnangagwa to respect the Constitution and vacate office in 2028.
Other political actors and civil society groups have also made similar demands, concerned about the erosion of democracy.
Factionalism in ZANU PF and the Role of Mnangagwa's Deception
The division between Mnangagwa's supporters and Chiwenga's backers mirrors past factional battles in ZANU PF.
In April 2015, then vice president Joice Mujuru was expelled from ZANU PF over allegations she plotted to remove then president Mugabe.
This push to have Mujuru removed from both her positions in the ruling party and government was instigated by Mnangagwa with the assistance of Mugabe's wife Grace.
In an ironical twist of face, typical of ZANU PF politics, not too long afterwards, the two, Grace and Mnangagwa (the latter who had replaced Mujuru as vice president) were at each other's throats as they fought to succeed the nonagenarian leader.
The climax was the Mnangagwa's own sacking as from his ZANU PF and government position on 5th November 2017 by Mugabe, culminating in the military coup d'état that ousted Mugabe two weeks later.
Mnangagwa became the new president of Zimbabwe.
Today, we find ourselves in the midst of another potentially explosive scenario.
Mnangagwa's "dishonesty" and failure to clarify his political intentions have deepened distrust, particularly among those who believe his ambitions threaten the party's unity and Zimbabwe's constitutional order.
Power Struggles in Africa: Examples of Conflict Between Presidents and Deputies
Across Africa, power struggles between presidents and their deputies have often escalated into violent conflict, destabilizing entire nations.
South Sudan's descent into civil war began with a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar.
The conflict began when Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup, leading to the dismissal of the vice president in July 2013 .
Ethnic tensions between Kiir's Dinka group and Machar's Nuer group fuelled the conflict, which erupted into full-scale civil war.
What started as a political rivalry between a president and his deputy has resulted in one of Africa's most devastating conflicts, with tens of thousands killed and millions displaced.
The rivalry between Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and his deputy, Hassan al-Turabi, illustrates another example of how power struggles can lead to conflict.
Turabi, initially an ally of al-Bashir, began to challenge the president's authority, calling for constitutional reforms that would limit al-Bashir's power.
As a response, in late 1999, al-Bashir dissolved the parliament and declared a state of emergency, leading to years of political instability.
This power struggle set the stage for further divisions that contributed to Sudan's long-standing internal conflicts.
In Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial decision to run for a third term in 2015 triggered widespread violence and political instability.
His deputy, Gervais Rufyikiri, along with several other high-ranking officials, opposed Nkurunziza's bid for a third term, citing constitutional term limits.
Nkurunziza's persistence led to large-scale protests, a failed coup attempt, and the eventual exile of many political leaders, including his deputy.
The crisis in Burundi underscored the dangers of leaders attempting to extend their grip on power beyond constitutional limits.
These examples demonstrate the dangers of allowing political rivalries between presidents and their deputies to fester.
In many cases, what begins as a political dispute can quickly escalate into violence, destabilizing entire countries and leading to long-term conflict.
The Growing Security Threat in Zimbabwe
The role of the military in Zimbabwean politics, particularly in light of Chiwenga's history as a former commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF), adds a layer of complexity to the current power struggle.
The military's influence, combined with Chiwenga's significant support within the ranks, raises concerns about the possibility of another military intervention.
Should Mnangagwa pursue constitutional amendments to extend his presidency, there is a real possibility that the military, many of whom remain loyal to Chiwenga, could intervene.
Zimbabwe's history of military involvement in politics, most recently in 2017, underscores the volatility of the current situation.
Broader Implications for Governance and the Rule of Law
If Mnangagwa and his supporters succeed in altering the Constitution to allow him to run for a third term, it would represent a significant erosion of the rule of law in Zimbabwe.
This will also set a terrible precedence that the country's supreme law can be altered at the whims of a power-hungry leader, which does not auger well for both democracy and constitutionalism.
The current factional struggle is already weakening the government's ability to address key issues, such as the economy, and undermining public trust in democratic processes.
Like in other African nations, the potential for civil unrest and violence is real if the political impasse is not resolved.
The factional infighting within ZANU PF could spill into the streets, further destabilizing the country's fragile political and economic systems.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Zimbabwe's Political Stability
The ongoing power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga is a ticking time bomb that could have catastrophic consequences for Zimbabwe.
The factionalism within ZANU PF, coupled with Mnangagwa's refusal to firmly commit to stepping down in 2028, is setting the stage for a potential conflict.
Zimbabwe must look to the lessons of other African nations where power struggles between presidents and their deputies have led to civil conflict, often with devastating consequences.
For Zimbabwe's future stability and peace, it is crucial that Mnangagwa respects the Constitution and avoids the temptation to extend his presidency beyond 2028.
© Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. Please feel free to WhatsApp or Call: +263715667700 | +263782283975, or email: mbofana.tendairuben73@gmail.com, or visit website: https://mbofanatendairuben.news.blog/
Source - Tendai Ruben Mbofana
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