Did Geza hype fail?

Those of us who have been following Zimbabwe political protests from the 1980s would know why the Geza hype was not going to be a complete success. The Geza hype partly failed because of a number of issues. Its success was also partial because it addressed a number of legitimate national concerns that continue to require grave attention from Zanu leadership.

What went right?

Therefore, the Geza political venture needs some credits in that it overwhelmingly showed that Zanu is not standing on solid grounds. Any able, strategic and bold leader can turn the tables against the current Zanu leadership because of its well-known failings. There is an unmistakable prevailing anger, frustration, and discontentment against the failed and seemingly clueless leadership that still wants to prolong its stay in power. Most people in and outside Zanu were overwhelmingly expressing sentiments against Mnangagwa's desire to amend the Constitution so that he gets another term in power. Whether in the urban or rural areas, the old or young in Zanu and opposition, they expressed being against the current Zanu leadership and worse so, the 2030 movement agenda. Mnangagwa did not need telling this as it was obvious from how he and the party reacted. Zanu panicked hence pouring millions of dollars to various individuals, groups and security structures as a means of dissuading them from joining Geza. Zanu had long ignored war veterans, police and military officers but all of a sudden, it was as if money was never an issue at all. The party and government had suddenly had unknown sources of funds for projects targeting war veterans and youths' welfare. Indeed, Zanu panicked and went overdrive spending massively to the chagrin of the masses. Zanu leadership and ZRP were all out busy denouncing the March 31st (M31) protests activists. Ministers and well-known Zanu funders and perennial 'tender winners' were on the defensive as they were being identified, named and shamed. This just enabled the nation to know the characters around the President that are allegedly corrupt and driving the country deeper into poverty. If the president didn't know, Geza enabled him to hear the majority of his citizens venting out their anger through various routes of the media. The message was loud and clear; people do not want the Constitution to be amended, they don't want President Mnangagwa to extend his term, they want the president to deal with corruption and the economic woes. Fearful of a repeat of the 2017 fatal shootings by the Army, citizens opted to stay at home, a powerful weapon on its own. Geza managed to have the country and its economic activities at stand still, something the Opposition parties have failed to achieve over years. Even President Mugabe's allies like former MP and Opposition leader, Eddie Cross, acknowledged. Zimbabweans, resoundly showed that they want their lives back and normal, but are scared to come out vociferous into the streets.
Thus, on that note, Geza and his unseen and unknown fellow anti-Mnangagwa and Zvigananda protests proponents would seem to have achieved something.

What went wrong, and why?

The Geza anti-government hype failed because it did not have political clout and public support from well-known politicians. Geza is a well-known Zanu member and war veteran. His call for the removal of ED in protest against 2030 agenda seemed noble to many, but he seemed to be a wrong messenger too. He has over the years been an enabler of Zanu'S prolonged stay in power. The late President Mugabe amended the Constitution several times, he poured money to war veterans to silence the Opposition, even violently; and Geza and his comrades had no problem with that. It is now that they want Mnangagwa out so that VP Chiwenga gets into power that they want the masses to support them again as was the case in 2017. Thus, what was not noble to many was a desire that the replacement for President Mnangagwa be VP Chiwenga. For most Zimbabweans, the difference between Mnangangwa and Chiwenga is almost nil!! VP Chiwenga as Army boss was instrumental in the removal of Mugabe and installed Mnangagwa. Chiwenga then became VP reportedly after an agreement that he will become the next President after Mnangagwa's two terms!! The one-million-dollar protest questions were; are Zimbabweans going to help entrench and consolidate Zanu power in the country by supporting its successive leaders removing each other? Do Zimbabweans want Zanu to continue running the country? No. Do Zimbabweans want VP Chiwenga as President so that he also leaves his own preferred Zanu man in power? No.

In addition, Geza did not explain how and who was going to run Zimbabwe after he had driven out Mnangagwa. The masses were told of the nameless invisible leadership yet all Opposition leaders were nowhere near this hyped anti-Mnangagwa stance. It was therefore naive to just believe that Zimbabweans will do a repeat of the November 2017 'masses coup' against Mugabe where the new Zanu leadership ended up ruling on its own leaving the Opposition parties out in the cold. It had misused the masses and opposition leadership to support it against the Mugabe regime. Calls for ED's removal were exactly similar to those of Mugabe's removal; too many corrupt characters around the president, the president's family and clan being too ambitious and favoured, and interfering with government operations, the president wanting to overstay his mandate in power and abusing the Constitutional, wanting to amend the Constitution to install his wife, being too old to continue running the nation, etc. As in 2017, no one explained the kind of the government that would follow after the removal of Mnangagwa; Zanu-led Government of National Unity, or fresh elections to elect a democratic government with a transitional government led by technocrats in place?

The Geza call did not only lack faces of leadership and strategy. It was clearly a protest call addressing long standing national concerns, but Zanu's media gurus effectively countered it as without national substance because all these were well known issues. VP Chiwenga's silence and invisibility of other supporters made it appear like a lone call in response to well-known national despondence. The country has long been fed up with Zanu failure and clearly shown that it feels let down and betrayed by ED himself after supporting him in 2017. Since 2017, ED and Zanu have not made any significant improvements in the country, but have instead been allegedly more corrupt and tribalistic than the Mugabe regime. The state of the economy seems to have worsened. Zimbabwe is the only country in the world not in any civil or any war at all that has gone for more than 20 years without its own currency, with progressively deteriorating socioeconomic structures and a gigantic emigration of its working population. This seems not to be ringing alarming bells to Zanu, instead, it appears to be pleasing it that the vociferous working population is emigrating. The desire to prolong Zanu rule is why the Geza call sounded empty when people realised all he wanted was to have VP Chiwenga replacing President ED. Mugabe amended the Constitution many times to solidify his power with the same war vets who included Geza supporting him. Instead of being neutral like war vets in most countries, the Zimbabwe liberation war veterans allowed themselves to be made another active organ of the Zanu structures, and were used to keep the opposition parties out of power before and after 2017. So, it was obvious, and as ED financially responded, this was all about their welfare and not national democratic and economic aspirations. This was made worse by Geza constantly referring to the war veterans' role during the war and their neglected welfare. These are issues Zanu countered by blatantly pouring unaccounted for funds into war veterans' petty projects. Thus to the masses, it was clear that Zanu has money for projects that help to solidify its power structures but has no funds for national needs or civil servants salaries. And these are some of the concerns war veterans have never raised, and sadly Geza appeared to mention them in passing and not as the main basis for his anti-Mnangagwa protest.

The VP Chiwenga, if at all he was Geza's anointed leader, he let him down in the same way ED let down many people before he fled the country after Zanu had fired him. The silence in the face of humiliation and denunciations by mafikizolos within the party structures especially by Christopher Mutsvangwa was astonishing and made some ask if he has the political stamina to lead. VP Chiwenga did exactly President Mnangagwa did over the years when he was also being humiliated as the late President Mugabe's vice president. Silently pretending one was not ambitious and was not behind all the noise to remove his boss to the point if being humiliated and called names by junior ministers shows lack of leadership clout and ability to defend oneself and control junior leaders. This is visible in government and Zanu structures where President Mnangagwa's silence about corruption and incompetence by ministers is mentioned as a cause for concern.

What should Geza have done?

Geza and advisors should have known that unless spontaneous, a protest by the masses will only happen if it is led by visible leaders who are out in front in the streets. When the likes of Joshua Nkomo, Edgar Tekere, and Morgan Tsvangirai (in his early years as MDC leader) were in the streets and stadiums with the masses, protests were effective and successful. This time Geza should have called for a stay away for a week or so. Protesting in the streets when he is already in hiding and with no other leaders willing to lead in the streets was futile and only a few, as happened, would pay heed to it. Zimbabweans are not ready to be led to face the ZNA and ZRP bullets alone whilst leaders are hiding or in the comfort of their homes and churches. The memories and disabling fear of the Gukurahundi era, the 2008 political violence, and the 2017 killings by the ZNA are clearly in people's minds whenever leaders call for protests against Zanu. Despite the hype, the silence of all foreign embassies was so strong a message; they knew this was a failed political stunt against a tried and tested political machine.

Sadly, now many heads in various departments will roll, and some overzealous Zanu party cadres may be on a very toxic revenge mission unless Mnangagwa intervenes. Of late, due to lack of a strong effective opposition, Zanu no longer cares about throwing out its members to permanent political oblivion. Most Zanu cadres know that they are only relevant by zealously worshipping its leader, and that once thrown out of the party, they are on their own in the cold. As it is today, many Zanu members are ruefully wondering why they ever supported the Geza sentiments against 2030 and Mnangagwa and zvigananda because this was not well thought out and executed.

For Zanu leadership, this is an opportunity to seriously address all highlighted concerns and weigh if its 2030 agenda remains relevant. Sadly, for the public, the Geza venture is another normalisation of fear of government violence against its own citizens expressing their discontentment and frustration through demonstrations. Thus, the government, as we witnessed through ZRP and Zanu meetings and rallies, will no doubt continue to use fear of violence as a weapon against the masses' desire to protest.