Is Emmerson Mnangagwa under threat?

The latest episode of Africa Here & Now, a Cape Town-based podcast focusing on African culture, politics, and current affairs, has sparked conversation by posing a provocative question: Is Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa under threat?

The episode, which aired following the March 31 stayaway organized by war veterans allegedly aligned with Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, delves deep into Zimbabwe's volatile political landscape and the increasing tensions within the ruling Zanu-PF party.

Hosted by veteran international journalist Martine Dennis, the podcast features a conversation with Dr. Blessing-Miles Tendi, an associate professor of politics at the University of Oxford. Tendi offers expert insight into Zimbabwe's internal power struggles, the legacy of the 2017 military-assisted transition, and the emerging dynamics threatening Mnangagwa's grip on power.



Chiwenga Factor and the 'March 31 Movement'

The timing of the episode is notable. It comes just after a nationwide stayaway on March 31, reportedly orchestrated by war veterans sympathetic to Chiwenga. Analysts and insiders see this movement as part of an escalating succession battle between Mnangagwa and his ambitious deputy - the very general who helped bring him to power in 2017.

Though Zanu-PF has dismissed internal rifts, the March 31 action, which saw councillors, civil servants and even police officers arrested for spreading anti-Mnangagwa messages, signals growing dissent - not from the opposition, but from within.
Revisiting the 2017 Coup

In the podcast, Tendi revisits the 2017 military intervention that ousted long-time leader Robert Mugabe, explaining its underlying causes and the calculated decision by the generals not to call it a "coup."

"Mugabe's iconic status as a liberation hero shaped how he was handled," Tendi explains, suggesting that historical reverence complicated the coup's execution and narrative.

Among the key questions explored in the episode:

- Why did the 2017 coup happen?
- What role did Mugabe's legacy play in his downfall?
- Why the reluctance to call it a coup?
- What was the international reaction?
- And crucially: Has Zimbabwe's military set a dangerous precedent for future takeovers?

The Return of the 'Struggle Generation'

Tendi also discusses the enduring power of the 'struggle generation' - war veterans and liberation-era elites - and their influence on contemporary politics. This group, once instrumental in Mnangagwa's rise, now appears to be fracturing, with some members reportedly backing Chiwenga as a possible successor.

This growing internal challenge is raising red flags, both in Zimbabwe and abroad. With Mnangagwa having just completed the first year of his second term, any signs of instability within his base may have far-reaching consequences - for the economy, for governance, and for the future of Zanu-PF.

A Shift in the Political Winds?

The podcast's core question - Is Emmerson Mnangagwa under threat? - doesn't offer easy answers. But through historical analysis and political foresight, the episode sheds light on a ruling party increasingly at odds with itself.

With Zimbabwe's political stage seemingly set for another act of intrigue, the world - and the region - will be watching closely.