Opinion / Columnist
Unpacking Zanu-PF's disputed election victory
11 Nov 2013 at 15:28hrs | Views
No one who is anybody in Zimbabwe politics can have been totally surprised by the outcome of the elections of July 31 2013. For about two years prior to the general elections, reputable pollsters like the mass Public Opinion Institute through the USA-based Freedom House and several Western media houses such as The New York Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph (which are no historical friends to Mugabe and his party) foretold of significant popular swing to Zanu-PF at the expense of the MDC-T.
The constitutional referendum was the rare occasion where all the parties supported the first home-made constitution of the country, but even there it was clear that Zanu-PF had the most effective mobilising machinery. It appeared that the opposition parties themselves sensed the likelihood of defeat judging by the strenuous efforts they made to avoid or postpone the date of the election decreed by the Supreme Court.
They appealed the presidential proclamation to the Sadc heads of state and back to the Supreme Court, all to no avail. In desperation they pleaded even for two weeks delay. Professor Welshman Ncube spoke for the opposition groups when he complained that they were "frog-marched into the election". The elections were, in fact, overdue.
Two weeks before election day, a visiting British friend asked for my opinion.
I was able to tell him that President Mugabe and Zanu-PF would win outright and there would be no need for a run-off vote. I had attended some five election rallies, including in my former constituency of Zaka where MDC had gained three out of four seats in 2008. I was able to say that this time Zanu-PF would regain the lost seats in Masvingo Province.
After the poll, my visitor sent me the following e-mail message: "Your predictions on Masvingo were right on target. The election is clearly a landslide".
Another inquisitive visitor wanted an opinion poll with figures. I hazarded 55 percent for Mugabe. In the event I had understated the President's victory which was to be 61 percent as against 34 percent for the runner-up. Zanu-PF's victory was also more emphatic than my prediction.
The party holds 72 percent of all seats, exceeding two-thirds majority in Parliament and over 90 percent in local government to about 8 percent for the MDC-T.
For the opposition parties which in 2008 had narrowly defeated Zanu-PF, the 2013 election produced a comprehensive defeat which left no room for equivocation.
The MDC-T now controls two of 10 provinces whereas in 2008 it controlled six. The four provinces it lost include Matabeleland North and South previously thought to be safe areas. The big picture as of now is a return to the pre-2008 scene. The ruling party reigns supreme without the discredited Government of National Unity (GNU) coalition. Zanu-PF has regained all the eight rural provinces, including Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North as well. It also made significant inroads into some of the urban vote.
From this titanic combat only one opposition party survived, retaining its support base albeit with a few bruises. Bulawayo urban province remained exclusively an MDC-T domain. The other metropolitan province and the nation's capital, Harare, remains under MDC-T control, but Zanu-PF won some significant parliamentary seats and council wards.
All the other parties were dealt mortal blows and some are now facing the possibility of extinction. For example, in Chipinge, Zanu-Ndonga performed dismally in all three constituencies which used to be its exclusive fiefdoms since independence. The victorious Zanu-PF candidates all confidently proclaimed that the Ndonga ghost had now been exorcised for good.
Similarly, the poor showing of the Dabengwa-Ncube alliance may have put paid to the attempts to resurrect Zapu in Matabeleland.
Equally, Prof Welshman Ncube's loss of Matabeleland South to Zanu-PF and Bulawayo seats to MDC-T has knocked his party off the power table. Zimbabwe is theoretically still a multi-party democracy but the result of the 2013 elections points unmistakably to a two-party polity, much like in the United States of America.
It must not be assumed that Zanu-PF made all the gains and others all the losses. In two cases MDC-T managed to wrench seats from two high-profile Zanu-PF candidates.
In Tsholotsho, Prof Jonathan Moyo, an incumbent MP and Politburo member, was defeated, and in Chinhoyi, a well-known millionaire, Philip Chiyangwa, lost a safe seat. In both cases the victors were political nonentities. In two other constituencies, Bikita West and Mudzi South, Zanu-PF official candidates were defeated by independents. If there was an easy rigging mechanism, the humiliating setbacks would not have been allowed to stand.
Absorbing the initial shock
The initial response to the announcement of the election result was the familiar knee-jerk African tendency to reject any unfavourable poll result.
The leader of MDC-Tsvangirai denounced the election as "a farce" and "null and void". He claimed the election was rigged and demanded a re-run.
He challenged the result in the Constitutional Court, but later withdrew his petition. The court proceeded to hear the case and to dismiss it for lack of any evidence to support the bare allegations.
The refusal to concede defeat conjures memories of Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and others. It is an African syndrome to which no vaccine has yet been found. Mr Bernard Membe, Tanzania's Foreign Affairs Minister and leader of the Sadc Observer Mission, advised the losing candidates to gracefully concede and thereby secure the respect of the voters, but the advice fell on deaf ears.
In Kenya, Raila Odinga claimed that by taking his electoral dispute to the courts he had promoted democracy even though the courts dismissed his objections.
There is some element of truth in that statement. However, refusal to concede defeat without a strong prima facie case is not only churlish but it is potentially destabilising. Hence it is inimical to democracy.
In the 2013 Zimbabwe elections Tsvangirai cannot even claim Odinga's rationalisation since he withdrew his challenge. In the recent Zimbabwean elections Mr Tsvangirai threw out broad allegations of vote rigging, administrative and legal violations and failure to meet Sadc and AU principles for democratic elections.
He declared that the elections were "null and void". However, he failed to provide any serious supporting evidence,and he finally withdrew his court challenge.
He seemed to be satisfied with the political publicity which he could muster in an attempt to discredit the election. In the process, Tsvangirai only succeeded to discredit himself as a bad loser.
A second line of attack by the MDC-T party was the launching of 95 election petitions by as many defeated candidates for various constituencies. In the unlikely event they all succeeded, the net result would have been to render MDC-T the majority party in Parliament or to decree for a fresh general election.
However, 56 of the petitions were dropped leaving 39 petitions to be determined by the Electoral Court within six months from the date of the elections.
Even if all the remaining petitions succeeded, Zanu-PF would still command the majority in Parliament.
The petitions all seek to overturn the result in each constituency on virtually the same grounds.
They claim that the MDC-T candidate must be declared the winner or that there should be a fresh election in the constituency. In other words, the party now recognises the rest of the election result, that is, for the presidency, Parliament and local councillors.
This represents a silent but considerable climbdown by Mr Tsvangirai who had said the whole election exercise was "a sham" and "null and void".
For the remaining individual petitioners their grievances and allegations are as follows:
That the winning candidate or his supporters used intimidation and undue influence to compel people to vote for him;
That voters were bused from outside the constituencies and allowed to vote;
That there were too many assisted voters at some polling stations;
That the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission failed to provide an electronic voters' roll but only provided the hard copy voters' roll at the last minute;
That many voters were turned away for not appearing on the final voters' roll; and
That the special voters' roll disorganisation led to double-voting.
The fate of these petitions will hitch on the credibility of the evidence adduced to support the allegations.
The shortcomings relating to administration have been admitted and explained by ZEC.
Both the Independent Election Observers and the judiciary have already taken the view that while these are regrettable and to be avoided in the future, they were not committed wilfully, and they disadvantaged all participants, winners and losers, and they did not prevent the expression of the electoral choice of the people.
Some of the MDC-T petitions claimed that as many as 700 000 people were turned away from polling stations in Harare alone.
However, the figure for the whole country turned out to be only 304 890 and many of these eventually voted when they found their correct wards where they were registered.
Those who finally failed to vote were fewer and not all of these were Tsvangirai's voters.
However, even supposing they all were his supporters, Mugabe would have remained the winner by a wide margin.
-------------------
Ambassador Simbi Mubako is the Professor of Public Law at Midlands State University.
The constitutional referendum was the rare occasion where all the parties supported the first home-made constitution of the country, but even there it was clear that Zanu-PF had the most effective mobilising machinery. It appeared that the opposition parties themselves sensed the likelihood of defeat judging by the strenuous efforts they made to avoid or postpone the date of the election decreed by the Supreme Court.
They appealed the presidential proclamation to the Sadc heads of state and back to the Supreme Court, all to no avail. In desperation they pleaded even for two weeks delay. Professor Welshman Ncube spoke for the opposition groups when he complained that they were "frog-marched into the election". The elections were, in fact, overdue.
Two weeks before election day, a visiting British friend asked for my opinion.
I was able to tell him that President Mugabe and Zanu-PF would win outright and there would be no need for a run-off vote. I had attended some five election rallies, including in my former constituency of Zaka where MDC had gained three out of four seats in 2008. I was able to say that this time Zanu-PF would regain the lost seats in Masvingo Province.
After the poll, my visitor sent me the following e-mail message: "Your predictions on Masvingo were right on target. The election is clearly a landslide".
Another inquisitive visitor wanted an opinion poll with figures. I hazarded 55 percent for Mugabe. In the event I had understated the President's victory which was to be 61 percent as against 34 percent for the runner-up. Zanu-PF's victory was also more emphatic than my prediction.
The party holds 72 percent of all seats, exceeding two-thirds majority in Parliament and over 90 percent in local government to about 8 percent for the MDC-T.
For the opposition parties which in 2008 had narrowly defeated Zanu-PF, the 2013 election produced a comprehensive defeat which left no room for equivocation.
The MDC-T now controls two of 10 provinces whereas in 2008 it controlled six. The four provinces it lost include Matabeleland North and South previously thought to be safe areas. The big picture as of now is a return to the pre-2008 scene. The ruling party reigns supreme without the discredited Government of National Unity (GNU) coalition. Zanu-PF has regained all the eight rural provinces, including Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North as well. It also made significant inroads into some of the urban vote.
From this titanic combat only one opposition party survived, retaining its support base albeit with a few bruises. Bulawayo urban province remained exclusively an MDC-T domain. The other metropolitan province and the nation's capital, Harare, remains under MDC-T control, but Zanu-PF won some significant parliamentary seats and council wards.
All the other parties were dealt mortal blows and some are now facing the possibility of extinction. For example, in Chipinge, Zanu-Ndonga performed dismally in all three constituencies which used to be its exclusive fiefdoms since independence. The victorious Zanu-PF candidates all confidently proclaimed that the Ndonga ghost had now been exorcised for good.
Similarly, the poor showing of the Dabengwa-Ncube alliance may have put paid to the attempts to resurrect Zapu in Matabeleland.
Equally, Prof Welshman Ncube's loss of Matabeleland South to Zanu-PF and Bulawayo seats to MDC-T has knocked his party off the power table. Zimbabwe is theoretically still a multi-party democracy but the result of the 2013 elections points unmistakably to a two-party polity, much like in the United States of America.
It must not be assumed that Zanu-PF made all the gains and others all the losses. In two cases MDC-T managed to wrench seats from two high-profile Zanu-PF candidates.
In Tsholotsho, Prof Jonathan Moyo, an incumbent MP and Politburo member, was defeated, and in Chinhoyi, a well-known millionaire, Philip Chiyangwa, lost a safe seat. In both cases the victors were political nonentities. In two other constituencies, Bikita West and Mudzi South, Zanu-PF official candidates were defeated by independents. If there was an easy rigging mechanism, the humiliating setbacks would not have been allowed to stand.
Absorbing the initial shock
The initial response to the announcement of the election result was the familiar knee-jerk African tendency to reject any unfavourable poll result.
The leader of MDC-Tsvangirai denounced the election as "a farce" and "null and void". He claimed the election was rigged and demanded a re-run.
He challenged the result in the Constitutional Court, but later withdrew his petition. The court proceeded to hear the case and to dismiss it for lack of any evidence to support the bare allegations.
The refusal to concede defeat conjures memories of Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and others. It is an African syndrome to which no vaccine has yet been found. Mr Bernard Membe, Tanzania's Foreign Affairs Minister and leader of the Sadc Observer Mission, advised the losing candidates to gracefully concede and thereby secure the respect of the voters, but the advice fell on deaf ears.
In Kenya, Raila Odinga claimed that by taking his electoral dispute to the courts he had promoted democracy even though the courts dismissed his objections.
There is some element of truth in that statement. However, refusal to concede defeat without a strong prima facie case is not only churlish but it is potentially destabilising. Hence it is inimical to democracy.
In the 2013 Zimbabwe elections Tsvangirai cannot even claim Odinga's rationalisation since he withdrew his challenge. In the recent Zimbabwean elections Mr Tsvangirai threw out broad allegations of vote rigging, administrative and legal violations and failure to meet Sadc and AU principles for democratic elections.
He declared that the elections were "null and void". However, he failed to provide any serious supporting evidence,and he finally withdrew his court challenge.
He seemed to be satisfied with the political publicity which he could muster in an attempt to discredit the election. In the process, Tsvangirai only succeeded to discredit himself as a bad loser.
A second line of attack by the MDC-T party was the launching of 95 election petitions by as many defeated candidates for various constituencies. In the unlikely event they all succeeded, the net result would have been to render MDC-T the majority party in Parliament or to decree for a fresh general election.
However, 56 of the petitions were dropped leaving 39 petitions to be determined by the Electoral Court within six months from the date of the elections.
Even if all the remaining petitions succeeded, Zanu-PF would still command the majority in Parliament.
The petitions all seek to overturn the result in each constituency on virtually the same grounds.
They claim that the MDC-T candidate must be declared the winner or that there should be a fresh election in the constituency. In other words, the party now recognises the rest of the election result, that is, for the presidency, Parliament and local councillors.
This represents a silent but considerable climbdown by Mr Tsvangirai who had said the whole election exercise was "a sham" and "null and void".
For the remaining individual petitioners their grievances and allegations are as follows:
That the winning candidate or his supporters used intimidation and undue influence to compel people to vote for him;
That voters were bused from outside the constituencies and allowed to vote;
That there were too many assisted voters at some polling stations;
That the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission failed to provide an electronic voters' roll but only provided the hard copy voters' roll at the last minute;
That many voters were turned away for not appearing on the final voters' roll; and
That the special voters' roll disorganisation led to double-voting.
The fate of these petitions will hitch on the credibility of the evidence adduced to support the allegations.
The shortcomings relating to administration have been admitted and explained by ZEC.
Both the Independent Election Observers and the judiciary have already taken the view that while these are regrettable and to be avoided in the future, they were not committed wilfully, and they disadvantaged all participants, winners and losers, and they did not prevent the expression of the electoral choice of the people.
Some of the MDC-T petitions claimed that as many as 700 000 people were turned away from polling stations in Harare alone.
However, the figure for the whole country turned out to be only 304 890 and many of these eventually voted when they found their correct wards where they were registered.
Those who finally failed to vote were fewer and not all of these were Tsvangirai's voters.
However, even supposing they all were his supporters, Mugabe would have remained the winner by a wide margin.
-------------------
Ambassador Simbi Mubako is the Professor of Public Law at Midlands State University.
Source - zimpapers
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