Opinion / Columnist
Analysis: Why Emmerson Mnangagwa will be the next President of Zimbabwe
24 Sep 2014 at 04:44hrs | Views
COLOGNE- "When the crocodile smiles, be extra careful," so warns a Swahili proverb. Why should one be extra careful when this happens? Some say it's because the reptile is seeing a juicy meat.
The bubble of confidence currently being displayed by justice minister, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, himself nicknamed 'the crocodile' for his covertness and shrewdness in political gamesmanship, must not be overlooked nor be dismissed as a tilting at windmills by the Zanu PF heavyweight.
Mnangagwa is surely not smiling and joking about aiming to succeed President Robert Mugabe. Inversely he is a bitter man, whose political wounds have healed after the damning injury caused to his ambitions to become Vice President in 2004, by the late General Solomon Mujuru, who managed to leapfrog his wife Joice Mujuru to the position, under the pretext of promoting women into the presidium.
Joice Mujuru was a mere water resources minister, whose meteoric rise stunned many inside Zanu PF, laying a concrete path for herself to be next in line at Munhumutapa Building. This humiliation made Mnangagwa to go back to the drawing board, in search of a resurgence formula, which we now see at play. The Midlands politician is like a duck appearing peaceful on the surface, yet its feet are moving frantically under the water.
We give reasons, as to why we foresee a looming Mnangagwa presidency below:
Mujuru fallouts
Perhaps one of the most crucial development in recent months, aiding Mnangagwa's journey to State House, is the fall out between VP Mujuru, and a number of high profile Zanu PF politicians, who were very instrumental in supporting her ascendancy to the top, some ten years ago.
Mujuru appears to have relaxed, and thought the succession deal had already been sealed. The equally prolific politician spent more time with her husband and their purported faction allies, reportedly planning harder to push Mugabe out of office prematurely. Mugabe himself castigated the Mujuru's for being impatient with power, and that they could not unseat him using the late Edgar Tekere's autobiography, A lifetime of Struggle, published by Ibbo Mandaza, to decampaign his liberation war reputation.
Edna Madzongwe (President of the Senate of Zimbabwe)- Madzongwe is a very powerful female figure in the country's politics, with close relations to Mugabe after having been elected as Senate President in 2005, just a year after Mujuru became Vice President. She was re-elected once again, as Senate President in March 2008 and July 2013 respectively. Madzongwe was seen by some quarters, as a potential rival to Mujuru, and thus could have been deemed a threat by the VP's backers, causing their fallout. It is thought Madzongwe felt Mujuru was not appreciative of the support she had rendered her, alongside other senior female Zanu PF members such as Oppah Muchinguri, Grace Mugabe, and Olivia Muchena.
Dr Grace Mugabe (First Lady and incoming Zanu PF Women's League boss)- The suspected tension between Grace and VP Mujuru, is another factor that could cost Mujuru's rise beyond her current office. Zanu PF insiders say Grace is not convinced that Mujuru, will protect her business and political interests should Mugabe vacate office. Actually, those close to her allege that some elements supporting Mujuru are likely to clampdown on her vast wealth, leaving her with no penny, such pushing her to form allies with forces increasingly lining behind Mnangagwa's ascendancy. Grace went on a rhetoric warpath last month accusing her foes in Zanu PF of playing with fire, in what many considered to be an apparent salvo directed at Mujuru. "My time has come to show people what I am made of," Grace told a mob of youths at her Mazowe farm. " I might have a small fist, but when it comes to fighting, I will put stones inside it to enlarge it, or even put on gloves to make it bigger. Do not doubt my capabilities.Pane vanhu varikuda kundizvuzvurudza mutara (There are people who want to drag me against a tarred road) when the President goes," she said.
Oppah Muchinguri (Outgoing Zanu PF Women's League boss)- Muchinguri's reported political beef with Mujuru, also does not bring any good prospects of Mujuru earning the presidency. The Women's League is actually the organ and platform, which resoundingly supported Mujuru's rise, and without the backing of the league, her chances of replacing Mugabe are slim. Muchinguri is believed to be a Mnangagwa ally, who played facilitator for Grace to subsequently earn nomination to takeover the Women's League, with the blessings of Mnangagwa loyalists.
Tabs on national security since Independence in 1980
Mnangagwa has been minister of state security and occupied the defence portfolio too several times in the last three decades, leaving him with a superior edge over Mujuru in terms of defence and security matters. The minister also has formidable backing from the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) Commander, Constantine Chiwenga, alongside other security services chiefs, such as Zimbabwe Republic Police boss, Augustine Chihuri, and Airforce of Zimbabwe (AFZ) Commander, Perence Shiri. Furthermore, Mnangagwa leads the Joint Operations Command (JOC), which coordinates state security affairs. JOC has been accused of running a parallel government, which is largely considered to be the real power behind the scenes in the running of Zimbabwe.
JOC's full membership is as thus:
Sydney Sekeramayi - Minister of Defence
General Constantine Chiwenga - Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces
Lieutenant General Philip Sibanda - Commander of the Zimbabwe National Army
Air Marshal Perence Shiri - Commander of the Air Force of Zimbabwe
Commissioner Augustine Chihuri - Commissioner of the Zimbabwe Republic Police
Major General (Ret.) Paradzayi Zimondi - Head of the Zimbabwe prison service
Happyton Bonyongwe - Director-General of the Central Intelligence Organisation
Most the above officials, are believed to be on Mnangagwa's side, for their own interest and for the purposes of maintaining the Zanu PF status quo, under a leadership they trust and prefer.
'Coup d'état aquittal'
Intelligence sources have indicated, Mugabe has developed a soft spot for Mnangagwa, eversince the President's Office discovered that he was falsely being accused of masterminding, a military putsch in 2007, by his Zanu PF rivals, with some speculating that the late General Mujuru, has sought to discredit him using the incident.
According to free online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, The Zimbabwean government foiled an alleged coup d'état attempt involving almost 400 soldiers and high-ranking members of the military that would have occurred on June 2 or June 15, 2007. The alleged leaders of the coup, all of whom have been arrested and charged with treason, are retired army Captain Albert Matapo, Spokesman for the Zimbabwe National Army Ben Ncube, Major General Engelbert Rugeje, and Air Vice Marshall Elson Moyo.
The soldiers allegedly planned on forcibly removing Mugabe from office and asking Mnangagwa, then the rural housing minister to form a government with the heads of the armed forces. Harare first heard of the plot when a former army officer who opposed the coup contacted the police in Paris, France, giving them a map and a list of those involved.
Chinese connection
As extensively reported by this publication, another big factor in Mnangagwa's almost sure ascendancy to the presidency, is the reported financial and political backing he is said to be receiving from Beijing. China has reportedly set aside a whopping US$1 billion loan facility, for the economic resuscitation of Zimbabwe, under a Mnangagwa presidency should it materialise.
Not implicated in Wiki-Leaks cabels
Unlike Mujuru, Mnangagwa has not been implicated in the damaging Wiki-Leaks cabel leaks. Mujuru has been accused of meeting with American diplomats, in the shadows to allegedly court backing from Washington.
Mugabe has been angered by the revelations, and is said to have been convinced that Mujuru is a preferred candidate of the White House to replace him, and even grew suspicious when his deputy was removed from a targeted sanctions list by the European Union (EU) ahead of him. Mugabe and his wife still remain on the sanctions list to date.
Generals blue-eyed boy
The country's hardline generals, have made their bias towards Mnangagwa an open secret, in particular Chiwenga, who was quoted a two years ago at Mnangagwa's 66th birthday, saying that the minister was still alive for a reason because: "Mnangagwa is the only surviving member of the first politburo meeting because in the first days, the president did not attend the politburo. All the others who attended the first meetings are now dead. I'm sure he is alive for a reason which we all know."
Mnangagwa might not be everyone's cup of tea, as a good number of Zimbabweans would prefer Mujuru or Morgan Tsvangirai to come to power, but unfortunately this is the reality we are facing and have to deal with. Nothing and noone seems to be standing in his way now, unless a miracle occurs.
The bubble of confidence currently being displayed by justice minister, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, himself nicknamed 'the crocodile' for his covertness and shrewdness in political gamesmanship, must not be overlooked nor be dismissed as a tilting at windmills by the Zanu PF heavyweight.
Mnangagwa is surely not smiling and joking about aiming to succeed President Robert Mugabe. Inversely he is a bitter man, whose political wounds have healed after the damning injury caused to his ambitions to become Vice President in 2004, by the late General Solomon Mujuru, who managed to leapfrog his wife Joice Mujuru to the position, under the pretext of promoting women into the presidium.
Joice Mujuru was a mere water resources minister, whose meteoric rise stunned many inside Zanu PF, laying a concrete path for herself to be next in line at Munhumutapa Building. This humiliation made Mnangagwa to go back to the drawing board, in search of a resurgence formula, which we now see at play. The Midlands politician is like a duck appearing peaceful on the surface, yet its feet are moving frantically under the water.
We give reasons, as to why we foresee a looming Mnangagwa presidency below:
Mujuru fallouts
Perhaps one of the most crucial development in recent months, aiding Mnangagwa's journey to State House, is the fall out between VP Mujuru, and a number of high profile Zanu PF politicians, who were very instrumental in supporting her ascendancy to the top, some ten years ago.
Mujuru appears to have relaxed, and thought the succession deal had already been sealed. The equally prolific politician spent more time with her husband and their purported faction allies, reportedly planning harder to push Mugabe out of office prematurely. Mugabe himself castigated the Mujuru's for being impatient with power, and that they could not unseat him using the late Edgar Tekere's autobiography, A lifetime of Struggle, published by Ibbo Mandaza, to decampaign his liberation war reputation.
Edna Madzongwe (President of the Senate of Zimbabwe)- Madzongwe is a very powerful female figure in the country's politics, with close relations to Mugabe after having been elected as Senate President in 2005, just a year after Mujuru became Vice President. She was re-elected once again, as Senate President in March 2008 and July 2013 respectively. Madzongwe was seen by some quarters, as a potential rival to Mujuru, and thus could have been deemed a threat by the VP's backers, causing their fallout. It is thought Madzongwe felt Mujuru was not appreciative of the support she had rendered her, alongside other senior female Zanu PF members such as Oppah Muchinguri, Grace Mugabe, and Olivia Muchena.
Dr Grace Mugabe (First Lady and incoming Zanu PF Women's League boss)- The suspected tension between Grace and VP Mujuru, is another factor that could cost Mujuru's rise beyond her current office. Zanu PF insiders say Grace is not convinced that Mujuru, will protect her business and political interests should Mugabe vacate office. Actually, those close to her allege that some elements supporting Mujuru are likely to clampdown on her vast wealth, leaving her with no penny, such pushing her to form allies with forces increasingly lining behind Mnangagwa's ascendancy. Grace went on a rhetoric warpath last month accusing her foes in Zanu PF of playing with fire, in what many considered to be an apparent salvo directed at Mujuru. "My time has come to show people what I am made of," Grace told a mob of youths at her Mazowe farm. " I might have a small fist, but when it comes to fighting, I will put stones inside it to enlarge it, or even put on gloves to make it bigger. Do not doubt my capabilities.Pane vanhu varikuda kundizvuzvurudza mutara (There are people who want to drag me against a tarred road) when the President goes," she said.
Oppah Muchinguri (Outgoing Zanu PF Women's League boss)- Muchinguri's reported political beef with Mujuru, also does not bring any good prospects of Mujuru earning the presidency. The Women's League is actually the organ and platform, which resoundingly supported Mujuru's rise, and without the backing of the league, her chances of replacing Mugabe are slim. Muchinguri is believed to be a Mnangagwa ally, who played facilitator for Grace to subsequently earn nomination to takeover the Women's League, with the blessings of Mnangagwa loyalists.
Tabs on national security since Independence in 1980
Mnangagwa has been minister of state security and occupied the defence portfolio too several times in the last three decades, leaving him with a superior edge over Mujuru in terms of defence and security matters. The minister also has formidable backing from the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) Commander, Constantine Chiwenga, alongside other security services chiefs, such as Zimbabwe Republic Police boss, Augustine Chihuri, and Airforce of Zimbabwe (AFZ) Commander, Perence Shiri. Furthermore, Mnangagwa leads the Joint Operations Command (JOC), which coordinates state security affairs. JOC has been accused of running a parallel government, which is largely considered to be the real power behind the scenes in the running of Zimbabwe.
JOC's full membership is as thus:
Sydney Sekeramayi - Minister of Defence
General Constantine Chiwenga - Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces
Lieutenant General Philip Sibanda - Commander of the Zimbabwe National Army
Air Marshal Perence Shiri - Commander of the Air Force of Zimbabwe
Commissioner Augustine Chihuri - Commissioner of the Zimbabwe Republic Police
Major General (Ret.) Paradzayi Zimondi - Head of the Zimbabwe prison service
Happyton Bonyongwe - Director-General of the Central Intelligence Organisation
Most the above officials, are believed to be on Mnangagwa's side, for their own interest and for the purposes of maintaining the Zanu PF status quo, under a leadership they trust and prefer.
'Coup d'état aquittal'
Intelligence sources have indicated, Mugabe has developed a soft spot for Mnangagwa, eversince the President's Office discovered that he was falsely being accused of masterminding, a military putsch in 2007, by his Zanu PF rivals, with some speculating that the late General Mujuru, has sought to discredit him using the incident.
According to free online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, The Zimbabwean government foiled an alleged coup d'état attempt involving almost 400 soldiers and high-ranking members of the military that would have occurred on June 2 or June 15, 2007. The alleged leaders of the coup, all of whom have been arrested and charged with treason, are retired army Captain Albert Matapo, Spokesman for the Zimbabwe National Army Ben Ncube, Major General Engelbert Rugeje, and Air Vice Marshall Elson Moyo.
The soldiers allegedly planned on forcibly removing Mugabe from office and asking Mnangagwa, then the rural housing minister to form a government with the heads of the armed forces. Harare first heard of the plot when a former army officer who opposed the coup contacted the police in Paris, France, giving them a map and a list of those involved.
Chinese connection
As extensively reported by this publication, another big factor in Mnangagwa's almost sure ascendancy to the presidency, is the reported financial and political backing he is said to be receiving from Beijing. China has reportedly set aside a whopping US$1 billion loan facility, for the economic resuscitation of Zimbabwe, under a Mnangagwa presidency should it materialise.
Not implicated in Wiki-Leaks cabels
Unlike Mujuru, Mnangagwa has not been implicated in the damaging Wiki-Leaks cabel leaks. Mujuru has been accused of meeting with American diplomats, in the shadows to allegedly court backing from Washington.
Mugabe has been angered by the revelations, and is said to have been convinced that Mujuru is a preferred candidate of the White House to replace him, and even grew suspicious when his deputy was removed from a targeted sanctions list by the European Union (EU) ahead of him. Mugabe and his wife still remain on the sanctions list to date.
Generals blue-eyed boy
The country's hardline generals, have made their bias towards Mnangagwa an open secret, in particular Chiwenga, who was quoted a two years ago at Mnangagwa's 66th birthday, saying that the minister was still alive for a reason because: "Mnangagwa is the only surviving member of the first politburo meeting because in the first days, the president did not attend the politburo. All the others who attended the first meetings are now dead. I'm sure he is alive for a reason which we all know."
Mnangagwa might not be everyone's cup of tea, as a good number of Zimbabweans would prefer Mujuru or Morgan Tsvangirai to come to power, but unfortunately this is the reality we are facing and have to deal with. Nothing and noone seems to be standing in his way now, unless a miracle occurs.
Source - www.thetelescopenews.com
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