South Africa has not given the black majority real independence

ABOUT two decades after independence, and with three successive black presidents, South Africa has not given the black majority real independence, concentrating on political power and not total independence.

Restless and unsure of their future, the black majority are now baying for a future President, after Jacob Zuma, to deliver real independence, in the form of land, justice and the economy. Total independence.

Public opinion suggests that neighbouring Zimbabwe had shown the way to do things in terms of black emancipation but that the ANC leadership was afraid to do the same, in fear of retribution by the Boer in particular and the white community in general.

Going forward, the ANC leadership seems comfortable facing the wrath of its own black majority than face the Boer and the white capitol, hence the need for a more daring, spank, frank, astute and principled black liberator like Robert Mugabe.

South Africa today is a melting pot and unless the concerns of the black majority are addressed as a matter of urgency, the pot will melt and the blacks will render the country ungovernable.

To this day, South Africa ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema's name is now being frequently mentioned whenever the country's politics are discussed, with people increasingly speculating whether or not he has presidential ambitions.

All this is for good reason.

Malema himself has made statements insinuating he may be eyeing the presidency in the not-too-distant future.

At a recent ANCYL conference in Midrand, he remarked that 'the world is getting younger and South Africa is a young nation so those who lead the ANC and government should be younger'.

This made it hard not to think he was speaking directly to the current ANC leadership and those standing directly in line to succeed it.

And as with everything else about Malema, his political future has polarised not just South Africa, but indeed the international community.

The result is that debate about Malema the person has clouded reflection on the issues that he raises and the context in which they came to be viewed as controversial.

He has thus become fair game for lampooning in the mainstream media.

Initially, cartoonists Zapiro and Jeremy Nell drew him dressed in nappies, insinuating that he is but a child. His followers credit him with rallying young and poor people around the common banner of black economic empowerment.

There is no denying that Malema is quite an orator, and as his public profile grows some have taken to describing him as a 'demagogue'.

Despite his broad appeal and undeniable public stature, Time Magazine listed him among its 'Least Influential People of 2010' .

Yet as far back as 2009, a top South African journalist and author expressed his belief that Malema has his sights set on becoming the country's next president.

'The World According to Julius Malema' - which documents his meteoric rise to power into 'the most influential politician' in the ANC - was written by veteran journalist Max du Preez and co-authored by journalist Mandy Rossouw.

Launched in September 2009, it was by no means the first attempt at trying to figure out what plans Malema has.

In the last ten or so years, he has risen through the ranks from Congress of South African Students president, to an ANCYL provincial secretary and now he is the powerful league's president. Evidently, he is a force to be reckoned with.

Now at the age of 30, Malema is firmly at the centre of South Africa's political and economic agenda and is believed to hold much influence over how the ANC's convention will play out next December.

By the time Malema finishes his second term as youth league president, he will be 33.

In the past he has indicated he will not run for a third term but will return to Limpopo and again work his way up the ranks, first as provincial secretary and eventually as premier.

This conceivably means Malema could be running for party and state presidency in his early to mid-40s; possibly in a 2027 general election.

He will be by no means young; after all, Dr AB Xuma became ANC president in 1940 at the age of 47.

When he delivered his political report in Midrand last month, Malema referred to the fact that Walter Sisulu 'was elected secretary-general at the age of 37 and turned (the ANC) into a mass, fighting movement'.

However, to assume that Malema's rise might be unopposed is to ignore the fact that the one million-member political party has a number of men and women also waiting in the wings - most of them more senior to the youth league leader in the party hierarchy.

"They can make kings and queens in the (Youth) League but not the ANC," a senior party member was reported to have scoffed while commenting about Malema's power, while another is said to have warned that they would not allow the youths to 'destroy' the party.

ANC Gauteng chairperson Paul Mashatile was more tempered in his assessment, saying: "I don't think the ANCYL and the ANC should be conflated.

"When the time is right there will be a robust discussion about succession in the ANC, and the youth league will be a part of that discussion . . . not until then."

But it seems Malema's mind is set on entrenching a young party leadership and he is understood to be working flat-out to ensure his predecessor in the ANCYL, close ally and friend Fikile Mbalula becomes secretary-general at the 2012 conference.

The alliance is a natural one, with Mbalula himself having been a firebrand youth leader and credited with setting Malema on the path that he is treading today.

Should Mbalula become secretary-general, Malema could well be set for greater office in the near future.

According to Norman McFarlane, a South African magazine editor, the argument that Malema is too young and must await his turn as per party tradition may well carry weight with the current leadership, but the big question is: "Is Julius Malema prepared to wait for Julius Malema's turn?"

His colleague Mbalula is already a cabinet minister.

A further source of inspiration was the phenomenal success achieved by Barack Obama - at the age of 43 - in wresting the Democratic nomination from Hilary Clinton, and the presidency from the Republican party. Malema attended Obama's inauguration and, according to City Press editor-in-chief Ferial Haffajee, the play of emotion on his face during the inaugural address trumpeted the conviction, "If he can, so can I!"

A European diplomat, responding to the possibility of a Malema presidency, was recently quoted saying: "I would not underestimate anything that Malema says he wants to do.

"In the past three years he has become the focal point of South Africa. He is the one we watch closely. He is the one we all write about in our reports."

Businessman Sello Rasethaba, a Malema ally, believes his friend means businnes.

"He walks the talk. If he says he wants to empower black people he means it," he said in reference to economic nationalisation.

Nationalisation is a strong suit for Malema and it is this issue, perhaps above anything else, which has spurred him to national and international prominence.

The youth league has made it clear that it will aggressively pursue nationalisation and black economic empowerment, with special attention being paid to the mining industry.

Those who choose to focus on Malema as an individual tend to negate the massive issue of poverty and unemployment that has so much resonance with the majority of black people across the whole of Africa.

South Africa has a population of 50 million odd people and slightly more than half of these are in the category often loosely referred to as 'youths'.

To say that these tens of millions of people are poor, unemployed and disenchanted is an understatement: they are ready to seize on the issues Malema raises as they offer the first real glimpse of a brighter existence since independence in 1994.

According to SA Institute of Race Relations chief executive John Kane-Berman, who has never had kind words for Malema, nationalisation is gaining currency because no one is offering the poor any other alternatives.

"Mr Malema himself has nothing to offer them except nationalsation.

(Malema) . . . has identified a fast-growing, political market: black youth.

"A minority of this group can benefit from cadre deployment, patronage, nepotism, tenderpreneurship, fronting, affirmative action, black economic empowerment, and the other familiar components of ANC policy.

"The rest have little hope . . . When Mr Malema says COSATU and the South African Communist Party have betrayed the poor he is right."

On the land issue, Malema has been championing sterner action than the willing-buyer/willing-seller system that has resulted in very little resettlement of the majority.

While this has shaken white capital, it is an argument that has many listeners in a country that has since 1994 redistributed just 7,4 million hectares of the 25 million hectares of farm land the state said it would by 2014.

Land Reform and Rural Development Minister Gugile Nkwinti has responded to Malema's campaign thus: "Remember these are young people who are also concerned about their future."

They are actually saying to us: think about it, it's going to be us tomorrow, what are you going to leave for us?

"I think it's very important that it happens now because you have people in the ANC government and the ANC itself who still have credibility amongst the people."

In Malema's estimation, the party and the government are not doing enough for the people of South Africa.

"The ANC is managing the state on behalf of those who own and control the means of production," Malema has said, adding that he is not prepared to be part of that disenfranchisement of the majority.

It is such statement that capture the hearts and minds of millions.

While some will dismiss this as demagoguery, the reality is that the South African economy is owned by whites and only a few elite blacks have managed to breach the glass ceiling that has existed since 1994.

It is perhaps this one issue that is Malema's biggest soft spot.

He is known to live a lavish lifestyle and is counted among the few blacks who have managed to make serious money in post-apartheid South Africa.

However, this criticism of him has failed to dissuade his supporters.

Malema has responded by becoming even more aggressive in his denunciation of white capital and this has resulted in greater support for him.

No aspect of public life has been spared Malema's stinging - and sometimes witty - tongue.

Nobody and nothing, it seems, is spared his attention, and the media's willingness to report his utterances - easily seen as adulation - serves only to reinforce the view.

Conspiracy theorists also posit the possibility of Malema being eliminated, a euphemism for assassinated, because of the threat that his policy proposals pose to white capital.

A consolidated media campaign, which has already started, will be used to thoroughly discredit Malema as those whose interests are threatened by his policy proposals stave off any likelihood of him becoming state president.

There will be many tough battles ahead, and who knows, Malema himself by any quirk of fate might destroy his own chances of rising further.

However, people also seem to have forgotten how significant a role Malema played in getting Jacob Zuma elected party and state president.

What would happen if he focuses that indefatigable energy on satisfying his own presidential ambitions? - The executive.