Anxiety grips divided Zanu-PF

This week, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) will convene its annual conference in Bulawayo, facing a turbulent future marked by factionalism, a leadership crisis, and contentious discussions surrounding President Emmerson Mnangagwa's potential succession. The party's internal strife has intensified following Mnangagwa's controversial retention of the presidency after the disputed August 2023 harmonised elections.

Since the elections, Zanu-PF has descended into chaos, primarily fueled by a controversial push from Mnangagwa's loyalists to amend the constitution, enabling him to extend his presidency beyond the 2028 expiry of his current term. The call for the removal of presidential term limits has gained traction, particularly in Mnangagwa's home province of Midlands, led by Provincial Affairs Minister Owen Ncube. His farm, Precabe, has become a rallying point for supporters pledging their allegiance to the president.

Slogans like "ED2030" promoting the extension of Mnangagwa's term have emerged within the party, igniting unease among ordinary Zimbabweans and dividing opinions among party members and the military. Despite Mnangagwa's insistence that he does not seek a term extension, asserting his identity as a "constitutionalist," his supporters continue to push the contentious agenda, leading to friction with factions in the military and among war veterans.

Defense Minister Oppah Muchunguri faced backlash from war veterans recently when she publicly endorsed the ED2030 slogan, illustrating the growing dissent within the ranks. The political tensions culminated in Mnangagwa's last-minute cancellation of a trip to the United Nations General Assembly, reportedly due to escalating infighting within the party.

As party members gather in Bulawayo, anxiety surrounding the conference is palpable. Observers suggest that supporters of the ED2030 agenda may use the platform to gauge support for the controversial proposal. However, insiders have indicated that the conference may resemble previous annual gatherings that promised reform but failed to produce substantial change.

There is speculation that Mnangagwa could leverage the conference to assert his authority and counter dissent from rivals opposed to the 2030 agenda. While the party leadership aims to project unity, the underlying factional rifts remain unresolved. Sources have indicated that discussions about the rift between Mnangagwa and his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, over the 2030 campaign could take place behind closed doors.

Zanu-PF spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa, who has expressed his own ambitions, has publicly challenged the notion that Chiwenga is the designated successor to Mnangagwa, further complicating the succession dynamics. Army Commander General Phillip Valerio Sibanda's name has also surfaced as a potential successor, intensifying the competition for leadership within the party.

While Mnangagwa's loyalists fervently support the 2030 agenda, sources suggest that Chiwenga is quietly working to counter the proposal, contributing to the simmering tensions within the party. Despite the challenges, insiders maintain that both leaders are acutely aware of their strengths and will likely avoid public divisions that could further destabilize Zanu-PF.

Political analysts predict a tense atmosphere at the conference, with some factions, particularly within the women's league, potentially advocating for constitutional amendments to install a female vice president. This move could pose a threat to Chiwenga's position and amplify existing divisions within the party.

The upcoming conference will serve as a litmus test for Zanu-PF's unity as it grapples with the legacy of former President Robert Mugabe, who faced similar succession issues before being ousted in a coup in 2017. As the party navigates these turbulent waters, it remains uncertain how the leadership crisis will unfold and what it means for the future of Zanu-PF and Zimbabwean politics as a whole.