Who benefits from Zanu-PF infighting?

In the past 48 hours, Zimbabwe's political landscape has been rocked by the deepening infighting within the ruling Zanu-PF party, with the removal of key military figure Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe and the latest threats from war veterans leader Blessed Geza aimed at business individuals linked to President Emmerson Mnangagwa. As tensions rise ahead of the planned March 31 protests, there are mounting concerns that ordinary Zimbabweans might once again find themselves caught in the crossfire of an internal political battle, much like they were during the 2017 coup.

As the political drama unfolds, citizens seem to be conspicuously absent from the central narrative. The ongoing infighting, marked by the struggle for succession between Mnangagwa and his rival, Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, has left the public marginalized from the debate, planning, and activities surrounding the power dynamics at play. A senior state security official, speaking anonymously for professional and security reasons, highlighted the growing fears that, once again, ordinary Zimbabweans may emerge as the biggest losers in this game of political chess.

"This is an internal Zanu-PF matter, with legitimate public interest. The question is, who benefits from these protests?" the official questioned. The comment echoes a wider sentiment of skepticism that has permeated discussions about the upcoming demonstrations.

The 2017 coup, which saw the ousting of long-time leader Robert Mugabe, was initially welcomed by many Zimbabweans, who saw it as an opportunity for change and a break from Mugabe's authoritarian rule. However, as time has passed, it has become evident that the coup primarily benefited the military and the ruling elite, with Mnangagwa—a former Mugabe ally—taking power. Promises of reform and economic recovery have largely failed to materialize, leaving many Zimbabweans disillusioned and struggling in a stagnant economy.

Now, as Geza and his faction of war veterans call for the removal of Mnangagwa, claiming his intention to extend his rule beyond 2028, there are growing concerns that history may repeat itself. The protests, which are fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the economy and corruption, could present an opportunity for the military and other powerful interests to exploit the situation and further entrench their power.

One of the most pressing questions raised by the security official is, "Who benefits?" He pointed out that although Geza's calls have gained some traction, they are ultimately driven by personal interests rather than the common good of the people. "Yes, people are suffering, but they don't want to be used again. That is clear. They've been through this before," the official said.

The disillusionment of the people is palpable. Despite the growing grievances, many ordinary Zimbabweans appear hesitant to participate in the March 31 protests, fearing they will once again be manipulated for the benefit of a powerful few. This skepticism is compounded by the absence of popular opposition figures like Nelson Chamisa, who has not involved his structures in the protests. As the official noted, "Zimbabweans are wiser now. They've been used, shortchanged, and abandoned before in 2017, and they are not eager to repeat that experience."

The issue of self-interest among the key players in the Zanu-PF succession battle is further underscored by the allegations of corruption surrounding Geza and his faction. Claims of looting, mismanagement, and profiteering have been levied against various individuals in Mnangagwa's inner circle, including Agrifora (Private) Limited, Pedzai Sakupwanya, Kuda Tagwrei, and others. These figures are said to have been enriching themselves through inflated tenders and supplies to the security sector.

According to the anonymous security official, the recent shift to a centralized procurement system, which has reduced costs for the military and police, has angered those who were benefiting from the old system. "Monthly security sector invoices were upwards of US$26 million, but now they are down to a third of that," the official explained. "This has created tensions, and some individuals are using Geza to try to reverse the changes and return to the old ways."

The official also pointed out the discrepancies in Geza's accusations, including his claims of unpaid Value Added Tax (VAT) on gold, which may not accurately reflect the full picture. "I'm not defending anyone, but we must consider both sides of the story," the official added.

As the March 31 protests draw nearer, the situation remains volatile. While the public's frustration with the government is undeniable, it is unclear whether the protests will lead to meaningful change or merely serve as a pretext for further consolidation of power by the military and other elite interests. The question remains: will Zimbabweans once again be used as pawns in a game of political power, only to be discarded when their usefulness runs out?

In the end, the true beneficiaries of this conflict will be determined by the actions of those in power. If the people remain marginalized, history may indeed repeat itself, and Zimbabwe's ordinary citizens could once again find themselves on the losing side of a political struggle that ultimately benefits only the powerful.