Challenging situation ahead for SA

THE latest from South Africa is that Cyril Ramaphosa has been elected president by the country's seventh Parliament.

His election follows an agreement between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a coalition government, which they are calling a government of national unity (GNU).

It was clear from the day the election results were announced that the ANC did not have a choice besides choosing between the abusive DA and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK).

The former is seen by many as selling out or handing the country back to the colonialists just three decades after it attained independence.

Some see it as too soon to have what looks like a white administration in government.

On the other hand, another school of thought has argued that the ANC-DA coalition is good for business.

Underlying this view is the assumption that having the DA in government will give the white capital monopoly confidence to expand business, thus boosting economic growth, which will then result in job creation.

The presence of the DA in government is seen as a stabilising factor in a context where economic radicalism by the EFF and the MK is seen as threatening economic stability, even though the majority of South Africans seem to be yearning for radical change.

Several things are at stake in the ANC-DA arrangement. First, there is a good chance that the economy may stabilise and possibly grow, but with fewer chances of black South Africans benefiting from that.

This is simply because the South African economic and political landscapes were scripted and ring-fenced from the days of the Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA) when discussions for independence were initiated, which is why the country's policies favour foreigners, regardless of race.

The system was then established by the white monopoly capital to protect the economy from radical policies by black political parties and was expected to lose its glue between 30 and 40 years of the black government.

This is why they saw it fit to have their own political implants within the black political leadership as a cushion so that in case the ANC fails to weaken, they would still have some people within its ranks to protect their interests.

They know that black African leaders are very weak when faced with financial kickbacks. So that plan worked.

However, it came with a huge bonus that the ANC weakened earlier than expected which is expected to see the DA, a political outfit seen as representing white capital monopoly,   joining the government.

It is most likely that it will get some of the most crucial positions in government, which will see the ANC beginning to weaken and disintegrate, and probably push Ramaphosa out of power gradually.

It has been alleged that the rise of Ramaphosa to presidency and the DA being in government are both sponsored by the same funders who were the biggest winners from the recent elections.

The gradual disappearance of Ramaphosa from politics will be viewed in two ways.

To those who alleged that he was a white capital monopoly implant, he will be a hero because he allegedly accomplished the goal of handing over the country back to the white capital monopoly.

To those who argue it is too early to allow white capital monopoly political power, he will be seen as the biggest betrayer of all time and perhaps trigger a new wave of protests across the country.

The result of these developments is that there will be a stronger and more stable economy, but in a politically unstable situation driven by the backing of black political parties such as EFF and MK.

That will be reset to the apartheid era, where the economy was strong and stable within a situation characterised by violence and protests and where there were tensions between white and black people.

It is vital to caution that this will likely be a bad phase for South Africa.

The post-election era is highly likely going to be characterised by proposals to amend the Constitution in ways that will enable the solidification of political and economic power by the white capital monopoly.

It will be like a reinvented apartheid system wearing a democratic hat, which would make it even harder to challenge outside democratic channels.

The police and security forces which were deliberately weakened post-apartheid era will be strengthened for political reasons, but disguised as improving safety and security.

Because of its strong links to the Western world, mainly the United Kingdom and the United States, they will be inclined to financially and politically back the white monopoly on the basis that the DA came into power via democratic processes.

On the other hand, Russia sympathises with black political movements.

Already, there are unconfirmed reports that Russia might have sponsored MK.

Russia and South Africa are members of the Brics [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa], an economic group promoting investments into a geopolitical bloc positioning itself as a counterweight to North America and the European Union.

Therefore, the political developments in South Africa will likely attract massive global attention.

Tapiwa Gomo is a development consultant based in Pretoria, South Africa. He writes here in his personal capacity.