Chamisa still green, says Jonathan Moyo
This follows the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI)'s Afrobarometer round nine survey report on Zimbabwe on June 15, 2022, which showed a marked decline ratings of the ruling Zanu-PF party leader, Emmerson Mnangagwa, and the rise of Chamisa.
Indications were that if presidential elections were to be held under the current environment, the Zanu-PF leader would lose to the CCC leader.
Actually, by showing "Chamisa beating Mnangagwa" with 33% over 30% in a presidential election that requires at least 50 + 1 vote to win; means neither Chamisa nor Mnangagwa would win if the vote is held today. With 33%, Chamisa would need 17% + 1 vote to win; a mountain to climb! https://t.co/AT6PG2CEwm— Prof Jonathan Moyo (@ProfJNMoyo) June 16, 2022
The survey said 33% of respondents would vote for Chamisa against 30% for Mnangagwa.
Writing on his Twitter handle, Moyo said the percentage margin difference between the two leaders meant that the opposition leader even though portrayed as leading, it was not a foregone conclusion that Chamisa would win the polls.
"Actually, by showing ‘Chamisa beating Mnangagwa' with 33% over 30% in a presidential election that requires at least 50%+1 vote to win; means neither Chamisa nor Mnangagwa would win if the vote is held today. With 33%, Chamisa would need 17%+1 vote to win, a mountain to climb!" Moyo tweeted.
It was the second time that an Afrobarometer survey showed an opposition candidate leading in Zimbabwe.
The first time was in 2009 when the late Movement for Democratic Change founding leader Morgan Tsvangirai led the late Zanu-PF leader Robert Mugabe.
"51% ZIMBOS STILL TRUST ED, Afrobarometer" @NewsDayZimbabwe— Prof Jonathan Moyo (@ProfJNMoyo) June 9, 2022
Their @Twitter polls glorify a dead barbarian, Ian Smith, and show him defeating @edmnangagwa; but Afrobarometer's scientific survey of likely voters in the real world has telling results. Smh!https://t.co/kSfgM9Dl16 pic.twitter.com/sX91EJtn8T
Analysts said there was a systematic pattern in the decline of Mnangagwa's vote.
If you read the original poll from AfroBarometer, it says Chamisa would win by 33% - 30%. The key word is 'by', meaning he would win by a margin of 33%. Which in my book is a landslide!— CeeMbi 🇿🇼 🇬🇧 (@ChillazJay) June 16, 2022
When Mnangagwa took over as President in a 2017 coup, at least 38% of surveyed citizens expressed intentions to vote for him and five years later, this had dramatically dropped to 30%.
Meanwhile, Chamisa's vote has been growing exponentially. In 2017, only 16% freely expressed intentions to vote for him, but this has gone up to 33% .