Stay aways won't work in Zimbabwe

At the end of March 2025, Zimbabwe's urban areas were eerily quiet as citizens stayed away from their workplaces, businesses, and other activities in what was expected to be a nationwide protest. However, the anticipated demonstrations and protests, especially the street actions called for by Blessed ‘Bombshell' Geza, a war veteran pushing for the removal of President Emmerson Mnangagwa's administration, did not materialize.

According to political analyst and University of Zimbabwe lecturer Eldred Masunungure, the lack of widespread participation in the March 31st stay-away was due to Zimbabweans' rational understanding of the risks involved in directly confronting the state's coercive power. The country's leadership has made it clear that it is ready to use force to suppress protests, and many citizens are aware of the dangers of participating in such movements.

Masunungure, in a recent interview with NewZimbabwe.com, said, "People are rational enough to know the dangers inherent in confronting the coercive arms of the state, which the leadership is ready to deploy as a first rather than last resort."

The political analyst also pointed out that protests are banned in Zimbabwe, and while many stayed away from work as a form of protest, the call for action failed to resonate with the broader public. He explained that the indefinite stay-away, as called for by Geza, collided with the survival needs of ordinary Zimbabweans, many of whom depend on informal jobs like vending to make a living. Masunungure called the protest "unstrategic" and noted that for the majority of the population, participating in such an indefinite strike would be akin to "suicide."

"It's plain common sense," Masunungure said, explaining that the needs of everyday Zimbabweans far outweigh the political motivations of protest movements.

Another key issue, Masunungure noted, was the absence of a solid organizational structure behind Geza's call for uprising. "The so-called ‘Geza movement' is essentially a solo effort by Geza himself," he said, adding that without a political party or organized group to support such efforts, protest movements are unlikely to succeed.

He also discussed the current state of opposition politics in Zimbabwe, calling attention to the political vacuum left after the collapse of key opposition parties like the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and, more recently, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC). This absence of a viable and trusted political organization has left many Zimbabweans politically adrift, creating what Masunungure described as a "tragic" situation of political orphans. He suggested that the formation of a viable political organization with strong leadership is essential for future political change.

The analyst also provided an overview of the current political landscape in Zimbabwe, characterizing it as one of widespread fragility. He highlighted the country's economic instability, including rampant corruption, sky-high unemployment, inflation, and a volatile currency, as well as the personalisation of the state through patronage networks.

"This is a country that is just muddling through," Masunungure said, adding that these issues are all manifestations of the systemic fragility Zimbabwe faces today. The analyst also noted that Zimbabwe's social order and international diplomatic relations are fragile, and there is significant uncertainty regarding the country's future.

While Masunungure acknowledged the nostalgia many Zimbabweans feel for the 2009-2013 Government of National Unity (GNU), he expressed doubt that a similar arrangement could be replicated under the current political conditions. The political environment is heavily dominated by the ruling Zanu-PF party, and non-state actors like civil society organizations are increasingly subdued through legal and extra-legal mechanisms, including the controversial Private Voluntary Organisation (PVO) Amendment Act.

In the face of this uncertainty, Masunungure remains hopeful that progressive elements within the church may lead a national dialogue that could eventually result in a GNU-like solution. However, he emphasized that this would require active involvement from regional leaders, particularly in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), with President Mnangagwa holding the chairmanship.

"The bottom line though, is that Zimbabwe is likely to be in this state of uncertainty, confusion, and even chaos for the foreseeable future," Masunungure concluded.

As Zimbabwe remains in a state of political flux, the failure of the recent protests and the ongoing challenges facing the country's citizens point to a deepening crisis that will likely persist unless meaningful change can be achieved through political dialogue and reform.