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Experts predict prospects of another good rainy season
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Zimbabwe could be set for another season of above-average rainfall later this year, with weather experts forecasting a possible return of La Nina conditions. If confirmed, this would mark the second consecutive year of La Nina, bringing renewed prospects for the country's rain-dependent agriculture and energy sectors.
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) says it is closely monitoring developments, with clearer forecasts expected from August onwards. The anticipated weather pattern could once again boost agricultural production and sustain water levels at the Kariba Hydropower Station, a critical source of energy for the country.
The 2024/2025 summer cropping season, also influenced by La Nina, delivered a bumper harvest for Zimbabwe. Maize and traditional grain production exceeded national requirements, contributing significantly to food security and economic stability. The economy is projected to grow by 6% this year, largely on the strength of this agricultural success.
La Nina is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In Southern Africa, it is typically associated with wetter-than-average conditions, in contrast to El Nino, which often brings heatwaves and droughts. Both form part of the broader El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which influences global weather patterns.
Currently, the world is in an ENSO-neutral phase, with Pacific Ocean temperatures near average. According to the United States-based Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), these neutral conditions are expected to persist until at least October. Thereafter, the likelihood of La Nina developing increases as the world moves into the fall and winter of 2025-2026, although CPC notes chances remain close to equal with ENSO-neutral conditions.
Japan's Meteorological Agency estimates a 40% chance of La Nina forming between September and November, while the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) places the probability at 35%. Notably, no major forecasting body currently anticipates a return of El Nino in the near term.
If La Nina does materialise, Zimbabwe could benefit from a second consecutive season of good rainfall, raising hopes for yet another successful farming season. However, local weather experts caution against premature optimism.
"The development of these weather patterns is a month-by-month process and changes constantly," said the MSD's head of forecasting, James Ngoma, in an interview with The Sunday Mail. "Our forecast will become clearer by August and beyond."
Ngoma urged farmers to maintain close communication with agricultural extension officers and to follow local weather forecasts carefully, as not all La Nina events impact Zimbabwe uniformly. "Each La Nina affects Zimbabwe differently - some bring good rains across the country, others favour specific regions. That is why we encourage farmers to stay connected to Agritex officers and local updates," he said.
Ngoma explained that rainfall forecasts are shaped by multiple global and regional indicators beyond ENSO alone, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and wind patterns over the Indian Ocean. The MSD therefore focuses on impact-based forecasts, which offer practical guidance on what farmers should do in response to weather projections.
Ahead of the 2025/2026 cropping season, the MSD is advising farmers to plan flexibly and prepare for a range of possible outcomes. "Be prepared for all possible outcomes," said Ngoma.
The next detailed climate outlook from the MSD is expected in August and will provide more precise guidance ahead of the planting season.
Last season's strong rainfall helped Zimbabwe harvest approximately 2.29 million tonnes of maize, surpassing the national requirement of 2.2 million tonnes, along with around 634,000 tonnes of traditional grains. This achievement has not only secured national food security but also allowed the country to build strategic reserves and stabilise food prices.
A return of La Nina could help maintain this momentum, offering Zimbabwe another opportunity to strengthen its agricultural and energy resilience in the face of ongoing climate uncertainties.
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) says it is closely monitoring developments, with clearer forecasts expected from August onwards. The anticipated weather pattern could once again boost agricultural production and sustain water levels at the Kariba Hydropower Station, a critical source of energy for the country.
The 2024/2025 summer cropping season, also influenced by La Nina, delivered a bumper harvest for Zimbabwe. Maize and traditional grain production exceeded national requirements, contributing significantly to food security and economic stability. The economy is projected to grow by 6% this year, largely on the strength of this agricultural success.
La Nina is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In Southern Africa, it is typically associated with wetter-than-average conditions, in contrast to El Nino, which often brings heatwaves and droughts. Both form part of the broader El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which influences global weather patterns.
Currently, the world is in an ENSO-neutral phase, with Pacific Ocean temperatures near average. According to the United States-based Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), these neutral conditions are expected to persist until at least October. Thereafter, the likelihood of La Nina developing increases as the world moves into the fall and winter of 2025-2026, although CPC notes chances remain close to equal with ENSO-neutral conditions.
Japan's Meteorological Agency estimates a 40% chance of La Nina forming between September and November, while the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) places the probability at 35%. Notably, no major forecasting body currently anticipates a return of El Nino in the near term.
If La Nina does materialise, Zimbabwe could benefit from a second consecutive season of good rainfall, raising hopes for yet another successful farming season. However, local weather experts caution against premature optimism.
"The development of these weather patterns is a month-by-month process and changes constantly," said the MSD's head of forecasting, James Ngoma, in an interview with The Sunday Mail. "Our forecast will become clearer by August and beyond."
Ngoma urged farmers to maintain close communication with agricultural extension officers and to follow local weather forecasts carefully, as not all La Nina events impact Zimbabwe uniformly. "Each La Nina affects Zimbabwe differently - some bring good rains across the country, others favour specific regions. That is why we encourage farmers to stay connected to Agritex officers and local updates," he said.
Ngoma explained that rainfall forecasts are shaped by multiple global and regional indicators beyond ENSO alone, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and wind patterns over the Indian Ocean. The MSD therefore focuses on impact-based forecasts, which offer practical guidance on what farmers should do in response to weather projections.
Ahead of the 2025/2026 cropping season, the MSD is advising farmers to plan flexibly and prepare for a range of possible outcomes. "Be prepared for all possible outcomes," said Ngoma.
The next detailed climate outlook from the MSD is expected in August and will provide more precise guidance ahead of the planting season.
Last season's strong rainfall helped Zimbabwe harvest approximately 2.29 million tonnes of maize, surpassing the national requirement of 2.2 million tonnes, along with around 634,000 tonnes of traditional grains. This achievement has not only secured national food security but also allowed the country to build strategic reserves and stabilise food prices.
A return of La Nina could help maintain this momentum, offering Zimbabwe another opportunity to strengthen its agricultural and energy resilience in the face of ongoing climate uncertainties.
Source - Sunday Mail
