Opinion / Columnist
Chiwenga will need a coup, or it will be over
2 hrs ago | Views
Zimbabwean tenderpreneur and sanctioned businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei is now a Central Committee member, according to ZANUPF.
This places him in pole position to become Zimbabwe's president as Emmerson Mnangagwa's chosen successor, unless his deputy, General Constantino Chiwenga, makes a decisive move.
I have been saying that Chiwenga would have to fight for the crown since the removal of the running mate clause, which required Mnangagwa to pick his running mate.
Is Chiwenga finished? The logical answer is that he has been politically surrounded by Mnangagwa, but he is not yet finished until he decides not to fight.
If he does not have the backing of the army, then he is finished, because the other side is using huge sums of money to smooth the path for Tagwirei's ascension to power.
The wife of the Presidential Guard army unit commander that carried out the coup in 2017 is one of the leading Tagwirei cheerleaders.
So the lines are not clear in the Zimbabwean military, where commanders have previously been accused by members of Chiwenga's faction of being on Tagwirei's payroll.
Tagwirei has vast amounts of money, and he is spending it to get what he wants.
Why is it important for Mnangagwa to get Tagwirei in?
Mnangagwa and his family want protection from prosecution, and they fear that Chiwenga will go after them.
Tagwirei is their protection ticket, safeguarding not only Mnangagwa, but also his many criminal cartels and his operatives in government, such as George Guvamatanga, Ziyambi Ziyambi, Virginia Mabhiza, Vimbai Nyemba, and many others.
Chiwenga's weakness is that very little is known about his team, perhaps deliberately or as a sign of disorganisation. Diplomats have been asking where he stands on issues, but they have not been getting straightforward answers, also possibly by design.
Mnangagwa has done extensive groundwork in the region, sending people like Wicknell Chivayo to meet key leaders and securing those relationships through business deals. A coup, in my view, is therefore a long shot. Mugabe could have stopped the coup if he had not been old, and Mnangagwa is making sure he does not repeat the same mistake.
It is a long and painful road for Chiwenga, one that looks daunting, but who knows; perhaps, as a military man, he will deliver a shocking sign of surprise and take the Sahel region route of coups that don't seek international validation.
If he does not fight, the next step will be their attempt to get rid of him altogether; perhaps that is when the real Chiwenga will stand up, just maybe.
Chiwenga has the ordinary people on his side, not because he is a great leader, but because, just like Mugabe, Mnangagwa is now hated so intensely by the suffering ordinary people of Zimbabwe.
Without mobilising ZANUPF foot soldiers on the ground to counter politically, Chiwenga will need a coup, or it will be over.
This places him in pole position to become Zimbabwe's president as Emmerson Mnangagwa's chosen successor, unless his deputy, General Constantino Chiwenga, makes a decisive move.
I have been saying that Chiwenga would have to fight for the crown since the removal of the running mate clause, which required Mnangagwa to pick his running mate.
Is Chiwenga finished? The logical answer is that he has been politically surrounded by Mnangagwa, but he is not yet finished until he decides not to fight.
If he does not have the backing of the army, then he is finished, because the other side is using huge sums of money to smooth the path for Tagwirei's ascension to power.
The wife of the Presidential Guard army unit commander that carried out the coup in 2017 is one of the leading Tagwirei cheerleaders.
So the lines are not clear in the Zimbabwean military, where commanders have previously been accused by members of Chiwenga's faction of being on Tagwirei's payroll.
Tagwirei has vast amounts of money, and he is spending it to get what he wants.
Mnangagwa and his family want protection from prosecution, and they fear that Chiwenga will go after them.
Tagwirei is their protection ticket, safeguarding not only Mnangagwa, but also his many criminal cartels and his operatives in government, such as George Guvamatanga, Ziyambi Ziyambi, Virginia Mabhiza, Vimbai Nyemba, and many others.
Chiwenga's weakness is that very little is known about his team, perhaps deliberately or as a sign of disorganisation. Diplomats have been asking where he stands on issues, but they have not been getting straightforward answers, also possibly by design.
Mnangagwa has done extensive groundwork in the region, sending people like Wicknell Chivayo to meet key leaders and securing those relationships through business deals. A coup, in my view, is therefore a long shot. Mugabe could have stopped the coup if he had not been old, and Mnangagwa is making sure he does not repeat the same mistake.
It is a long and painful road for Chiwenga, one that looks daunting, but who knows; perhaps, as a military man, he will deliver a shocking sign of surprise and take the Sahel region route of coups that don't seek international validation.
If he does not fight, the next step will be their attempt to get rid of him altogether; perhaps that is when the real Chiwenga will stand up, just maybe.
Chiwenga has the ordinary people on his side, not because he is a great leader, but because, just like Mugabe, Mnangagwa is now hated so intensely by the suffering ordinary people of Zimbabwe.
Without mobilising ZANUPF foot soldiers on the ground to counter politically, Chiwenga will need a coup, or it will be over.
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