El Nino could cause over 450,000 deaths

A powerful El Nino event developing in the Pacific could result in hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths worldwide, with developing countries expected to bear the heaviest toll, according to a new study.

El Nino is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that can disrupt weather patterns across the globe, bringing extreme heat and drought to some regions while triggering heavy rainfall and flooding in others. Researchers say the current event could become one of the strongest on record.

The Climate Impact Lab, a research group involving the University of Chicago and other institutions, estimates that extreme heat associated with the 2026-27 El Nino could lead to about 451,000 additional deaths worldwide.

The projected impact is expected to be concentrated largely in the Global South. Over the next six months, researchers forecast about 66,800 additional heat-related deaths across Africa's Sahel region, including approximately 31,400 in Nigeria and 17,500 in Sudan.

Indonesia could record an estimated 19,300 additional deaths, while India and Brazil could see around 15,800 and 13,300 respectively.

The United States is projected to experience about 3,500 additional heat-related deaths between September and February.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago, said the scale of the projected losses was difficult to comprehend, emphasising that the figures represented real people, including parents, children, grandparents and neighbours.

The warning comes after August was reported as the hottest month on record globally, with average temperatures reaching 16.96 degrees Celsius (62.53 degrees Fahrenheit).

Western Europe also experienced its hottest summer on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Researchers said the temperatures associated with the current El Niño could provide a preview of conditions that may become increasingly common over the next two decades as global temperatures continue to rise.

The projections highlight the potential human cost of extreme heat, particularly in countries and regions with limited resources to protect vulnerable populations from prolonged periods of high temperatures.