The End of Mugabe and Mujuru, rise of Mnangagwa

Cologne - Zimbabwe is now at a very critical juncture of her nationhood, two months before President Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF party meets for what is expected to be an explosive Congress, to select the country's two new Vice Presidents, with Mugabe alone having evaded challenge, as his post shall be uncontested.

The political situation on the ground is inflammatory, as Mugabe's wife has come from the blues to claim nomination and election as Zanu PF's Women's League leader, a position that has made her to get an automatic membership into the party's supreme body, The Politburo, charged with making Zanu PF's final decisions. Grace Mugabe's surprise political power rise, has allegedly been engineered by Mujuru's longtime rival, justice minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is all but certain to become one of the two Vice Presidents, thus positioning himself for an ultimate takeover of the President's Office, in the event of Mugabe resigning or having to step down on health grounds, which is now a strong possibility.

Since Mujuru is about to be dumped as vice president, after being accused of massive corruption, and having a hand in the formation of former prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai's, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) party by Grace during her recent nationwide "Meet the People rallies", the coast is clear for Mnangagwa to be elected the first vice president of the party, thereby being just a stone throw away from taking over power in Zimbabwe.

Mnangagwa, a one time personal bodyguard and assistant of Mugabe before Independence from British colonial rule in 1980, has become a hot favourite to succeed Mugabe, because he has skillfully managed to use his experience over the years as a former intelligence and defence minister, to win the political support of the military and secret service, which is very important, since the country is run by security services chiefs from behind the scenes, under the auspices of the Joint Operations Command (JOC). JOC, consists of the heads of the army, air force, prison services and state intelligence. It coordinates military and security affairs of the nation, and many observers believe it has more clout than Mugabe and his cabinet together, therefore effectively being a shadowy parallel government.

It is also a public secret, that Mnangagwa is the reported mastermind of Mujuru's troubles, and has allegedly used his cabinet post, as justice minister to nail Mujuru and her backers with graft reports, which he can vigorously pursue if he becomes Head of State, to vanquish Mujuru.

Taking a deeper look into Grace Mugabe's role and intentions in her husband's succession dynamics, one has to recall that not far away in 2004, she actually campaigned for Mujuru with the support of the Women's League, for her to become the first female vice president in the country against Mnangagwa, yet now the tables have bitterly turned, with Grace on a whirlwind national tour to decampaign Mujuru's ascendancy to the top, to protect her family's business and political interests, after falling out with Mujuru over her determination to push Mugabe out of office prematurely according to Grace herself.

It appears as if over the years Mujuru's political friendship, with not only Grace Mugabe but other key influential Zanu PF female politicians, such as outgoing Women's League boss, Oppah Muchinguri, politburo member Olivia Muchena and Senate President Edna Madzongwe was irretrievably broken down, and could be the biggest reason behind the countrywide women electorate backlash, against her re-election as vice president, late alone the entertainment of a possible Mujuru presidency, being championed by Grace, who ironically is an ally of Muchinguri, Muchena and Madzongwe. Grace and the powerful Zanu PF female trio , could have felt threatened by the fact that Mujuru had become pre-occupied with plotting her own rise to leading the country, with the help of her late husband and liberation hero, General Solomon Mujuru, who was killed in a mysterious fire in 2011, by yet to be known suspected arsonists. Many believe his death was a political murder, but the government maintains that there was no foul play in his death.

General Mujuru was the country's first army commander in 1980, and one of the most powerful and richest man in Zimbabwe before his death. The general was instrumental in the promotion of his wife, to become VP, as a way of blocking and punishing Mnangagwa from taking up the position. Mujuru and Mnangagwa's rivalry stems from clashes between the two, in the mid-1990s, when General Mujuru made a bid to buy into the multi-billion dollar Zimasco plant, a chrome mining and smelting concern in Zimbabwe's Midlands Province, which is the home province of Mnangagwa and under his control.

Grace and her allies, therefore ended up distrusting VP Mujuru, whom they suspected would come after them, and offer them no guarantee in the protection of their businesses and assets, which is where Mnangagwa comes in. Mujuru had also, after the death of her husband turned to senior male politicians in Zanu PF, such as presidential affairs minister, Didymus Mutasa, Zanu PF spokesman, Rugare Gumbo, and the party chairman, Ambassador Simon Khaya-Moyo to keep her presidential bid alive, in what could have been interpreted as a political snub on Grace and the Women's League.

Mnangagwa could have read into this loophole, and secretly courted former Women's League head, Muchinguri, as widely reported to approach Grace with an offer to takeover the powerful women's portfolio in Zanu PF. As can now be seen, Mugabe's wife is fighting for her own political survival and relevance, but indirectly being used by Mnangagwa's backers to finish off Mujuru. However the first lady's entry into the messy waters of Zanu PF succession politics has invited many foes for her, and there are serious worries over threats against her life. Some sections of the media in Zimbabwe have reported on a possible assassination of the president's wife, despite the fact that her security details have been strengthened, and that a personal motorcade similar to that one used by Mugabe has been provided for her.

A clear goal on Grace Mugabe's mind is to be voted into higher office come December, as the second vice president so she can protect herself and her family, but that is unlikely to happen.

The real story is the unseen tragedy of her possible assassination, and or death due to "natural causes" before Congress, as many hardline elements within Zanu PF and the military cannot allow her to go beyond leading Zanu PF women.

As a journalist, who has been covering Mugabe and the first family for some time, I think they are many scenarios which can shape up in Zimbabwe before and after the crucial congress, including what could happen if Mugabe resigns thereafter, which are:

If First Lady, Grace Mugabe, unfortunately falls into harms way, and becomes incapacitated or dies due to the reported threats on her life, said to have reached dangerous levels, Zanu PF might actually cancel the December Congress, and Mugabe could as well hand over power by resigning possibly before the end of November 2014.


- In the above case, hardline military generals led by Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) Commander, Constantine Chiwenga, are likely to declare Mnangagwa as care-taker president, to finish Mugabe's term which ends in 2018.

- Mnangagwa's immediate job, is likely to be that of stabilizing the failing economy, while also giving priority to negotiating amnesty for the military chiefs, so that they do not face prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for human rights abuses and other atrocities committed during the Mugabe era. Depending on how the International community reacts to this possible development, Zimbabwe might actually have a fresh round of elections around 2016.

- If Zanu PF goes to Congress in December, Joice Mujuru, will be dislodged and likely not to be re-elected. This means that, she will lose her government job, and shall become isolated at the party level as an ordinary card carrying member.

- If Grace Mugabe, makes it for the December Congress, without losing her life, she will be confirmed the new boss of the Women's League, and might get the consolation of being appointed into cabinet as a minister by her husband, in a cabinet reshuffle soon after the Congress.

- President Robert Mugabe, might actually announce his retirement soon after congress, and will be expected to appoint the first vice president, in this case Mnangagwa, as acting President before the end of the year, to take his annual christmas holiday in Asia.

- Zanu PF itself might split into two parties, just as what happened to the main opposition MDC in 2005. The main wing could be lead by Mnangagwa, or he might appoint another trusted ally, so he could concentrate on government business, with the other splinter party led by Mujuru.

- It is not alien, but quite possible that Mnangagwa could engage former prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, for some kind of political truce to enable political and economic stability before the next presidential polls in 2016 or 2018.