Zimbabwe and ZANU PF Gripped by Succession Heatwave

Zimbabwe's party-state conflation and its attendant dangers have never been as evident as it is now. Over the years, ZANU PF have done a good job making sure that their party ZANU PF is synonymous with and conflated to the state. It is trite that politburo decisions supersede cabinet decisions. In other terms, ZANU PF and it's leadership have become the state and the state a captive of ZANU PF whims and caprices.  This has elevated ZANU PF to more than being just a ruling party. Indeed ZANU PF has become the state and the state ZANU PF.  Thus the leaders of ZANU PF are also the leaders and commandeers of the state.  Equally captured are key institutions of government and civil service including but not limited to the police, army, intelligence, statistical offices, electoral bodies and many others. This makes the current ZANU PF dynamics very significant for the country and it's future. Thus the current succession heatwave that has Gripped ZANU PF since the unceremonious departure of Joyce Mujuru and her allies has equally affected the country as a whole.  

After the ouster of Joyce Mujuru, there was a sense that President Mugabe had finally chosen his successor, a perception which Jonathan Moyo was quick to dismiss. What has not been clear is whether Jonathan Moyo's dismissal of Emmerson Mngangagwa as Mugabe's successor was a personal opinion or both a party and government position. Neither President Mugabe nor any other officials have  buttressed or refuted Moyo's rather candid assertions. What is certain though is that Moyo has enjoyed some impunity and even scaled up his public disdain and undermining of ZANU PF and government's supposedly second in command and possible the next occupant of the highest office in the land. The crusade to undermine Mngangagwa took a sharp turn when it was joined by Saviour Kasukuwere and other powerful and  viciously ambitious young Turks who have come to be known as the G40. The main strength of this group is their proximity to, and influence over the all powerful first lady Grace Mugabe who now appears to be the defacto President and now seeking to make this position dejure. There are many theories why the gang of G40 is operating under the "big skirt". The first and least likely is that they are being used by Grace Mugabe with the tacit approval of her husband. The second is that the G40 is using Grace instead, to achieve power for themselves.  This theory follows the simple notion that Grace would be a weaker opponent to Emmerson Mngangagwa in the post Mugabe era and therefore much more easier to get rid of.

The main question is whether Mugabe initially genuinely intended to appoint Mngangagwa as his successor and if so why the sudden change or lack of clarity. There are a number of issues that seem to be at play. The first one is an ethnical one which historically has played a key role in the ZANU PF internal matrix. The power dynamics have always and continue to exhibit a delicate negotiation and balancing of the various tribal and ethnical groupings within the party and indeed in key government positions. To date, one of the two Vice Presidents ought to be a ndebele as part of that internal Memorandum of understanding. With Jonathan Moyo providing the vital and much needed intellect, the G40 gang has been quick to pick on this and perhaps try to convince Robert Mugabe to nominate someone from his zezuru clan, which also appears to be the core of the majority of G40 members. A couple of names have popped up such as Grace herself, Saviour Kasukuwere, Gideon Gono and two dark horses Sydney Sekeramai and army commander Dr. Constantine Chiwenga. Meanwhile Mngangagwa seems to enjoy very limited support from the three mashonaland provinces and Harare the four of which are predominantly zezuru. In 2004 for example,  in the  race to ascend to the vice presidency, Joyce Mujuru,  a zezuru from Mashonaland central had secured nominations from all the above four provinces and Emmerson Mngangagwa had secured the remaining six with Masvingo and Midlands provinces being his core sponsors. Masvingo and to some extent Midlands provinces are  predominantly Karanga, a group to which Mngangagwa proudly belongs. This enthic and tribal consideration appears to have cascaded down to opposition parties as well as to citizens in their individual capacities. I personally know a lot of people who support leaders merely on the basis of these tribal factors. The race to succeed Mugabe has been marred by the tribal card and the G40 seems intent to use this to convince the President to dump Mngangagwa for a zezuru candidate.

The second major factor at play is the trust issue. The President has never been known to trust anybody,  let alone with the highest office in the land and with protecting his family and it's interest when he is no longer there. This has played a major part in the fierce battle to land the succession card from the king and kingmaker Robert Mugabe.  There is a stampede to prove loyalty and allegiance to Mugabe by the leading groups in the succession race. Short of saying I knew and related to the President decades and decades before Grace even knew the President, Emmerson Mngangagwa has belaboured to drive this point home, articulating his timeless, infinite and unshakable loyalty and allegiance to his excellency. Indeed Mngangagwa has served the President with distinction as far as loyalty and allegiance are  concerned. Although the 2004 Tsholotsho indaba slightly dented him, he was still able to prove that when push comes to shove he would stand and die with his long-time boss and mentor. In an address to ZANU PF supporters in Headlands, Mngangagwa reveals that after the 2008 defeat of Robert Mugabe by opposition  stalwart   Morgan Tsbangirai, many of Mugabe's comrades had retreated to their rural sanctuaries.  Mngangagwa alleges that he alerted the President of the constitutional technicality which could be used to prevent Tsvangirai from assuming power. A constitutional provision had been inserted which required a candidate to win by more than 50.1 percent in the absence of which a run off was required between the two leading candidates. Indeed Mngangagwa was to superintendent over one of the most brutal campaigns eventually managing to force Tsvangirai to abandon the race leading to a government of national unity thus playing a crucial role in salvaging Mugabe's presidency. In a different fashion, Mngangagwa is thought to have played a crucial role in the manipulation of the 2013 election. The proximity and good relationship between Robert Mugabe and Emmerson Mngangagwa is all too evident, from the time of the war to date it is Mngangagwa who has been entrusted with critical tasks including overseeing the army, intelligence and even wars both internally and outside. This is the basis for his claim to Mugabe's crucial anointment.  However, history and human nature tells us that  politicians operate with constant mistrust, constant mobility and constant vigilance. Mugabe does not and cannot trust his long-time ally 100 percent and perhaps rightly so. Mngangagwa could actually sacrifice Mugabe or his family to clean himself although this is highly unlikely given the fact that whatever atrocities Mugabe is alleged to have committed Mngangagwa is probably the second most implicated figure. Juxtapose this longstanding relationship between Zimbabwe's two most powerful figures to the influence and proximity enjoyed by Grave Mugabe the wife of the President and by his own admission friend and controller, it is clear that the  President would be in limbo on who to trust. As far as his children and family are concerned certainly no one can compare to Grace. She is not just his wife but also the mother of his children. She is the one who is by the President's bedside when he goes to sleep and indeed when he wakes up. In other words, she is the last to see and talk to him and indeed the first to do so in the morning. Her influence and access to the President is incomparable and second to none .  

Although Mangwana knew the President long before Grace, she has had a her fair chance to demonstrate her allegiance to him. To be fair, she has also firmly stood with him through the entire storm brewed by the MDC. She had her fair share of backlash for being Mugabe's wife but fought back bravely including physically punching journalists and verbally assaulting Mugabe's perceived nemesis real and imagined.  She has been, like Mngangagwa if you like an all weather friend. Yet it is obvious and I am sure to the President too that she cannot possibly be the President, let alone hold ZANU PF together when the kingpin is gone. This has led others to think that Grace's current provincial whirlwind may have totally different objectives from the ones she had in the run up to the 2014 congress. Many now believe three possibilities.  The first one is that she may be garnering to be one of the two VPs  thus aiming for the stars to hit the clouds. The second is that she and her group may be baying for someone else to be accepted by Mngangagwa as Vice president.  The last one is the dark horse theory linked to the ethnical dynamic.  In this instance, a zezuru candidate may be in the cards who may or may not be deputised by Grace. Outside Grace, the difficulty is that very few,  if any can be trusted by Mugabe more than Mngangagwa.  Although dicey and effectively manipulated by Jonathan Moyo, Mngangagwa hinted his intention to preserve his master's legacy indicating that "we will miss him (Mugabe) when he is gone". Jonathan Moyo ever keen to pick a fight with his erstwhile ally was quick to remind Mngangagwa that it was not certain who would miss who as it is unknown who will go before who, adding salt to the wound by urging appointees to desist from preoccupying themselves with succeeding their appointer.  Jonathan perhaps more than any other knows all too well the capacity of the appointer to disappoint as he learnt the hard way after the Tsholotsho indaba. The Tsholotsho indaba itself provides a good insight into the frosty relations between Jonathan Moyo and Emmerson Mngangagwa.  But in addition to their 2004 fall out, Jonathan Moyo feels further betrayed by Mngangagwa in the post 2014 congress.  After all the hard fight that Jonathan put up presumably to place Mngangagwa in the best position to succeed Mugabe, Jonathan was appointed mere secretary for ICT in the politburo and later removed from his favourite ministry of information  which he had used effectively to project his own agendas. All this appears to be at the instigation and agreement of Mngangagwa with the President.  The recent reshuffles reflect a strong Ngwena influence including the slashing of Kasukuwere functions on his local government ministry, significantly the removal of chiefs who are perceived to be key gatekeepers in the rural areas to a new ministry altogether entrusted with Abdenico Ncube a key ally of Emmerson.

As the succession heatwave reaches  blast furnace temperatures, it is clear that the ethnic and trust issues, in addition  to holding the party together have become Mugabe's key dilemmas. The ability to hold the party together is very critical as it would make no sense to try and protect Mugabe's legacy and family interests by condemning ZANU PF to the doldrums of opposition politics through either picking a wrong candidate or allowing the party to disintegrate to the point of losing its cohesive ability in itself and over state organs to prevent the opposition from taking over power. The curious issue that stand to be seen is the state of Grace and Mngangagwa relationship.  

Promise Mkwananzi is a political analyst based in Bulawayo