Chin'ono challenges Jonathan Moyo's view

 Who holds the reins of power in Zimbabwe - civilian politicians or the military? The longstanding debate has resurfaced following a fiery analysis by award-winning investigative journalist Hopewell Chin'ono, who challenges former Information Minister Professor Jonathan Moyo's claim that the 2017 coup was a break from tradition.

Chin'ono contends that Zimbabwe has never truly been governed by politicians. Instead, he argues, it has been consistently controlled from behind the scenes by the military - "the gun."

"ZANU has always been led by the gun. Only ZAPU was led by politics," Chin'ono asserts, tracing a historical pattern in which the military arm of the ruling party, ZANLA, played a decisive role in political leadership transitions.

He points to the removal of ZANU founder Ndabaningi Sithole through the 1975 Mgagao Declaration - orchestrated by ZANLA - as an early example of the military overriding political structures. Similarly, the assassination of Herbert Chitepo in Zambia, which an international commission linked to ZANLA operatives, further underscores this trend, according to Chin'ono.

When Robert Mugabe emerged as ZANU leader, Chin'ono claims it was military backing, not political consensus, that propelled him to the top - despite Mozambican President Samora Machel advising against it. It was Rex Nhongo (later General Solomon Mujuru) who secured Mugabe's position.

Even during landmark events like the Lancaster House talks in 1979, military leaders like General Josiah Tongogara had to intervene to push Mugabe toward compromise. Tongogara, with Machel's assistance, reportedly forced Mugabe to sign the agreement or risk political irrelevance.

In the post-independence era, Chin'ono argues that the army remained ZANU-PF's enforcer. "Whenever Mugabe felt threatened, the military sorted out party problems," he writes, referring to General Mujuru's role as kingmaker.

After 2000, the relationship between the military and the ruling party deepened, with generals allegedly directing elections and intimidating opponents. It was General Vitalis Zvinavashe who issued the chilling warning that the military would not accept an opposition victory, and General Constantino Chiwenga who orchestrated both the 2008 political stalemate and the 2017 coup.

Chin'ono goes further to claim that the military's influence remained entrenched even as new technocrats were brought into government. "When they hit a brick wall, they would return to Chiwenga," he writes.

However, Chin'ono notes a recent and rare deviation from this pattern. He cites the refusal by General Anselem Sanyatwe to deploy soldiers against civilians - an act of defiance that led to his dismissal and was branded "disloyal" by ZANU-PF spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa.

The journalist also sheds light on the current power dynamics, stating that President Emmerson Mnangagwa has maintained power largely thanks to the loyalty of Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Philip Valerio Sibanda - a fellow Midlands native and ex-ZIPRA cadre - who opposes Chiwenga's ambitions.

"Mnangagwa has been strategic," Chin'ono observes, pointing out how the president has purged top ZANLA commanders loyal to Chiwenga and replaced them with ex-ZIPRA officers, including General Emmanuel Matatu.

Chin'ono concludes by rejecting Prof Moyo's theory that the 2017 coup was an anomaly. "It wasn't," he insists. "What was an aberration was the level of violence directed at CIO and police officers."

As speculation swirls over Mnangagwa's next moves, including possible action against Vice President Chiwenga, the nation watches closely. Should Mnangagwa dismiss Chiwenga without a military backlash, he would be "the first ZANU-PF leader to lead the gun - not be led by it."

In Chin'ono's view, the gun has always been behind Zimbabwe's politics - and whether that changes remains to be seen.