Zimbabwe moves closer to upper-middle-income status

Zimbabwe has made significant strides towards achieving middle-income status, with many citizens now spending an average of US$9 per day, signaling improving economic stability. Finance, Economic Development, and Investment Promotion Minister, Professor Mthuli Ncube, made the announcement during his address at the 2026 Parliament of Zimbabwe Pre-Budget Seminar in Bulawayo.

Professor Ncube shared that Zimbabwe is well on course to achieve its Vision 2030 goal of attaining upper-middle-income status. This progress is being driven by the Government's National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), which has set the framework for national growth. According to Ncube, the country's economic growth has surpassed expectations, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.6% over the past five years (2021-2025), exceeding the Government's initial target of 5.2%. He also noted that the country was on track to achieve a growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, further underscoring the success of the nation's economic policies.

In his speech, Ncube emphasized that the National Development Strategy 1 was coming to an end this year and that its successful implementation had laid the groundwork for sustained economic growth. He expressed optimism that the trajectory set by the NDS1 would help Zimbabwe reach upper-middle-income status by 2030, an ambitious but achievable goal. He highlighted infrastructure development as a key driver of this progress, with notable investments in roads, dams, and energy projects. These investments have been made possible through both Government initiatives and private sector participation.

Ncube also pointed out that the improvements in infrastructure during the NDS1 period had been crucial in fostering an environment conducive to economic growth. "During the NDS1 period, we have seen accelerated investments in the infrastructure sector, particularly in roads and dams. Now, we are starting to see investments in the energy sector, both by the Government and independent power producers," he said, stressing that these developments would be instrumental in supporting the country's long-term growth ambitions.

Zimbabweans, according to Ncube, are already benefiting from the nation's economic gains, with many reaching middle-income status. The Minister explained that the World Bank defines upper-middle-income economies as those with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of at least US$4,500. Currently, Zimbabwe's GNI per capita stands at US$3,300, which translates to an average expenditure of US$9 per day for citizens. "If you are able to spend US$9 per day consistently throughout the year, you are already middle-income. To be classified as upper middle-income, you should be spending US$12 per day. So, by this measure, we are already very close to reaching that status," Ncube said.

This achievement is part of a broader Government strategy to create an economy that is more stable, inclusive, and resilient. Ncube pointed out that macroeconomic stability and currency confidence have been at the heart of the Government's reform agenda, which has included the introduction of a new unit of currency following years of instability. The success of these policies has been reflected in key fiscal data, with Zimbabwe achieving solid revenue collection performance. For the period from January to September 2025, major contributors to the national revenue base included Value Added Tax (23.7%), Personal Income Tax (19.3%), and Excise Duty (11.5%).

In terms of government spending, Ncube reported that cumulative expenditure during the same period amounted to ZiG151.7 billion, below the target of ZiG193.8 billion due to the exchange rate differential. He stressed the importance of continuing to implement structural reforms to improve public spending efficiency, as well as to attract and retain both domestic and foreign investment.

Looking ahead, the 2026 National Budget will prioritize the continuation of macroeconomic stability, further financial sector reforms, inclusive economic growth, and structural transformation. Ncube outlined that the Government would focus on key sectors such as infrastructure and housing development, agriculture, food security, climate resilience, and environmental protection, as well as science, technology, and innovation. He also highlighted the importance of job creation, youth entrepreneurship, and human capital development in achieving the long-term objectives of Vision 2030.

In addition to the fiscal performance, Ncube pointed to positive developments in the country's foreign currency reserves. Zimbabwe's foreign currency reserves have grown substantially, from below US$300 million in April 2024 to over US$900 million by September 2025. This growth reflects the Government's focus on building financial resilience and strengthening the country's position in the global economy.

In conclusion, Professor Ncube expressed confidence that Zimbabwe was on track to meet its Vision 2030 goals. He emphasized that the Government's commitment to sustainable growth, infrastructure development, and economic reforms would continue in the years ahead. With a clear focus on inclusive and resilient growth, Zimbabwe's journey towards upper-middle-income status appears to be gaining momentum, setting the stage for a brighter economic future for its citizens.