Mnangagwa, Chiwenga battle intensifies

THE increasingly bitter power struggle between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga has once again come under the spotlight after Chiwenga's 70th birthday celebrations highlighted the widening political distance between the two leaders.

The birthday events came against the backdrop of an increasingly public battle for control of Zanu-PF and the state, with disagreements over succession and attempts to extend Mnangagwa's presidency deepening divisions within the ruling party.

Mnangagwa and Chiwenga were once central partners in the military intervention that ended Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule in November 2017.

At the time, Chiwenga was commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces and played a leading role in the military operation that forced Mugabe to resign after he resisted calls to step down.

Rather than assume the presidency himself, Chiwenga backed Mnangagwa, who had been dismissed as vice-president by Mugabe and had briefly fled the country.

Their alliance, however, has since deteriorated into a bitter succession struggle.

Political and military insiders have previously alleged that an informal agreement was reached within the Zanu-PF establishment that Mnangagwa would serve one term before paving the way for Chiwenga.

The alleged arrangement has never been formally acknowledged by either leader.

Mnangagwa instead secured a second term in the 2023 elections, while changes to the Constitution altered the political landscape around the succession.

The dispute has intensified further over Zanu-PF's so-called 2030 agenda, which supporters say would allow Mnangagwa to remain in office beyond the end of his current constitutional term.

Chiwenga and his allies have increasingly opposed the initiative, turning the succession question into one of the most consequential political battles within Zanu-PF.

The rivalry has also been accompanied by changes in the security establishment, with senior military and security officials being reshuffled, retired or redeployed during Mnangagwa's tenure.

Analysts have interpreted some of these moves as attempts to reshape the balance of power within the security services and limit Chiwenga's influence.

The stakes are particularly high because of the military's central role in the events of 2017 and its longstanding relationship with Zanu-PF.

Chiwenga, a former army commander and liberation war veteran, continues to command considerable influence among sections of the military establishment and war veterans.

Mnangagwa, meanwhile, has strengthened his own political networks within government and the ruling party.

The result has been what political analysts increasingly describe as a two-centre power struggle within the ruling establishment.

Against this backdrop, Chiwenga's 70th birthday celebrations attracted unusual attention.

Mnangagwa and senior Zanu-PF officials publicly marked Chiwenga's birthday during a Zanu-PF Central Committee meeting in Harare on July 2.

However, Chiwenga and his wife, Miniyothabo Baloyi, subsequently held what was described as a "strictly family dinner".

The gathering nevertheless grew into a large event attended by Chiwenga's close associates and political allies.

The absence of Mnangagwa and members of his inner circle was quickly noticed and interpreted through the lens of the deepening succession dispute.

For some observers, the contrasting events reflected the increasingly separate political worlds occupied by the two leaders.

The tensions have intensified following Mnangagwa's signing of Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3 into law, while Chiwenga has openly broken ranks with sections of the president's succession agenda.

The dispute has therefore moved beyond private disagreements and increasingly manifests itself at public and symbolic events — including political meetings, party gatherings and even birthday celebrations.

The growing rivalry has raised concerns about the stability of Zimbabwe's political system, particularly given the central role played by the security establishment in the country's political transition in 2017.

With the 2028 succession question looming, the contest between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga is likely to remain one of the defining political battles within Zanu-PF.

For ordinary Zimbabweans, however, the increasingly intense struggle for political control comes as the country continues to grapple with economic pressures and demands for improved governance.

The latest birthday episode may have been a social occasion, but its political symbolism has been difficult to ignore.