Mutambara court loss - Possible scenarios

A landmark judgement was passed today in Bulawayo. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) made a chamber application requesting that Arthur Mutambara (a) be interdicted from purporting to be MDC president and from interfering with its structures and organs as well as from exercising any function or powers vested in the President of MDC; (b) be interdicted from attending any meeting of whatever description of Principals in the inclusive government of Zimbabwe or of any regional or international body in the capacity of Principal in the inclusive government of Zimbabwe; (c) be interdicted from performing or exercising any and/or principal in the Inclusive Government; and (d) is not the President of the MDC.

The High Court ruled that the MDC is entitled to all the above including the fact that Mutambara must pay for cost of the suit.

However, those who voted Welshman Ncube to the Presidency of MDC never had any illusion that it was going to be a walk in the park. They were very conscious of the ethnic and geopolitical landmines they were treading into.

As such this victory, while all sane people knew it was coming, might be very shortlived. There are four broad responses that Mutambara and his handlers might implement in line with the ruling

Resignation
The least possible of scenario is that Arthur Mutambara resigns from the position of Deputy Prime Minister and refrains from any dealings with the Executive arm of Government with immediate effect. This were only possible if Mutambara was a both a man of his own and capable of being ashamed.

His resignation will however be consequential to the likes of Deputy Speaker of Parliament Nomalanga Mzilikazi Khumalo who have publicly declared their allegiance to his Presidency. The most obvious consequence will be their summary expulsion from Parliament. In particular the expulsion of Nomalanga Mzilikazi Khumalo will result in a vacancy for the position of Deputy Speaker whose fight will be as protracted as the Speakership itself.

Ruling is ignored
The second least possible scenario is that Mutambara might accept the cover of his handlers in the security services and ignore the ruling. Ignoring the ruling will be demonstrated by attending the Principals' meeting of Monday 19 December 2011.

That might however result in him getting arrested or at the least fined for contempt of court.

Mugabe expells Mutambara
Another unlikely scenario is that Robert Gabriel Mugabe in his capacity as President of Zimbabwe expels Arthur Mutambara from the Inclusive Government. Such a scenario unlikely as it is will result in the MDC conducting a reshuffle which might actually see more than half of its deployees in government changing Ministry.

Mutambara appeals
The highly likely scenario is that Arthur Mutambara will either appeal to the High Court or request that the ruling be suspended and while the Supreme Court looks into the matter. This is a legendary delaying tactic synonymous with anyone who is fully aware that they are having their last supper.

Such a scenario will give bloodline to the renegade Members of Parliament in the form of Nomalanga Mzilikazi Khumalo and Thandeko Zinti Mnkandhla.

It will create further chaos in the inclusive government and become supplementary evidence of the collapse of the inclusive government.

We have read the judgement, we have known the character we are dealing with, we are aware of his handlers and we are certain one or a combination of these scenarios are coming coming

Discent Bajila is the Secretary General of MDC Youth Assembly writing in personal capacity.