Zimbabwe in top five of Afreximbank borrowers

Zimbabwe has emerged as one of the top five borrowers from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), highlighting its growing reliance on the regional lender at a time when global credit assessors are warning of escalating debt vulnerabilities.

A recent report by the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) shows Zimbabwe ranking alongside Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Angola as Afreximbank's largest clients. Unlike its relatively stable peers, however, Zimbabwe is considered a fragile economy, weighed down by a mounting debt burden and limited access to alternative sources of capital.

Afreximbank projects that Zimbabwe's debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio could rise to 72% by 2026, up from an estimated 67% in 2025. Ratios below 60% are generally considered safer for developing economies, while higher levels raise concerns about repayment sustainability.

The JCR report indicates that the top five borrowing countries—Nigeria, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Tunisia, and Angola—account for about 71% of Afreximbank's total loans. While sovereign loans make up 23%, non-sovereign loans account for 77%, with the main beneficiaries being entities in high-risk regions. Afreximbank's total assets stood at US$35.2 billion at the end of 2024.

Analysts have warned that Zimbabwe's debt levels are particularly concerning given the country's economic fragility. Tapiwa Sibanda, head of strategy at Trade Winds, noted that while advanced economies can sustain high debt ratios due to stronger financial systems and borrowing in their own currencies, Zimbabwe faces significant financing challenges, including higher borrowing costs, restricted access to credit, and potential default pressures.

Despite Afreximbank projecting that Zimbabwe would borrow US$300 million in 2025, rising to US$600 million by 2026, Treasury data shows that the government already exceeded these figures. By March 31, 2025, new borrowings of US$640 million in the first quarter alone pushed total public debt to US$21.5 billion.

The JCR report noted that about 80% of Afreximbank's loans were secured as of end-2024 and that the bank enjoys preferential repayment as a preferred creditor. However, it warned that ongoing debt restructuring initiatives under the G20 and Paris Club frameworks could complicate repayment in cases where economic adjustments in debtor countries do not proceed smoothly.

These concerns align with findings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in February 2025 acknowledged progress in Zimbabwe's debt management but flagged persistent weaknesses. The IMF noted that while central government and central bank liabilities are captured, debts owed by local authorities, state-owned enterprises, and obligations such as Special Drawing Rights allocations and pension arrears remain excluded, obscuring the full debt picture.

The IMF recommended upgrading the current Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS), last revised in 2021, to DMFAS 7 to handle a broader range of debt instruments and improve data integration. It also called for an expanded reporting framework to meet the needs of a wider range of stakeholders.