Opinion / Columnist
Chiwenga has lost a battle not the war
2 hrs ago |
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The recently concluded Zanu-PF annual conference in Mutare has exposed the inner workings of power in Zimbabwe, and the outcome leaves little doubt: President Emmerson Mnangagwa has firmly outmaneuvered Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga. By securing a party resolution to extend his rule beyond the constitutional limit of 2028 to 2030, Mnangagwa has consolidated his grip on power, but the implications of this "ED2030" agenda go beyond mere politics-they strike at the heart of Zimbabwe's constitutional order.
Analysts have been quick to label this move a constitutional coup, a familiar pattern across Africa where incumbents engineer extensions of their tenure through legislative or party mechanisms, circumventing term limits. Mnangagwa's maneuver places him firmly in that category, joining a growing list of leaders who prioritize personal power over democratic norms.
The weeks leading up to the Mutare conference reveal how Mnangagwa secured his advantage. Chiwenga submitted a dossier to the Zanu-PF politburo, accusing businessmen aligned with the president of state capture and industrial-scale corruption. But Mnangagwa's faction dismissed the dossier as "fundamentally flawed" and "treasonous," neutralizing what could have been a significant challenge to his authority.
Chiwenga's campaign to block Mnangagwa's extended rule was not new; it has been ongoing since January, often carried out by proxies like war veterans, including Blessed Geza. That campaign even escalated into a bid to unseat Mnangagwa through mass action earlier in the year. Yet Mnangagwa's deft handling of the army, combined with purges within the party, ensured that Chiwenga's efforts were blunted.
At the conference itself, Mnangagwa's loyalists mobilized grassroots support for the "ED2030" campaign, turning the event into a showcase of his party dominance. The resolution directing the government to initiate legislative amendments for a term extension passed with little resistance. This was a stark reminder of Mnangagwa's control over Zanu-PF's machinery and a symbolic erosion of Chiwenga's influence, once considered a kingmaker since the 2017 removal of Robert Mugabe.
Chiwenga's expectations of succession have been shattered. Mnangagwa is now positioning his preferred successors-either Defence Forces Commander Phillip Valerio Sibanda or business mogul Kudakwashe Tagwirei-to safeguard his personal and business interests post-presidency. Chiwenga, once an indispensable ally, is no longer in the inner circle of decision-making.
Money proved decisive in the power play. While Chiwenga relied on perceived military support, Mnangagwa anchored his campaign on the wealth and influence of his business allies. This financial muscle, coupled with strategic mobilisation, effectively neutralized Chiwenga's military card. Since leaving the army, Chiwenga's institutional influence has waned; he now faces the daunting task of building a political and social base capable of challenging Mnangagwa, a task that requires resources, strategists, and public support-none of which come easily.
Yet, despite this setback, it would be premature to declare Chiwenga defeated. Mnangagwa may have won the battle at Mutare, but the war for succession and influence within Zanu-PF is far from over. Chiwenga's loss is strategic, not existential. Should he recalibrate, gather support, and mobilize resources effectively, Mnangagwa's triumph could become a Pyrrhic victory, delaying but not preventing future challenges to his rule.
The ED2030 resolution underscores a broader concern: the personalization of power and the erosion of institutional safeguards. While Mnangagwa has demonstrated political acumen, Zimbabweans must question the precedent this sets for governance, succession, and democracy. Party resolutions should not override constitutional limits, and the citizens' mandate must remain the ultimate check on power.
Mnangagwa has played the political chessboard masterfully, but the game is far from over. For Zimbabwe, the question remains: will 2030 be a testament to political strategy or a cautionary tale of power unbound?
Analysts have been quick to label this move a constitutional coup, a familiar pattern across Africa where incumbents engineer extensions of their tenure through legislative or party mechanisms, circumventing term limits. Mnangagwa's maneuver places him firmly in that category, joining a growing list of leaders who prioritize personal power over democratic norms.
The weeks leading up to the Mutare conference reveal how Mnangagwa secured his advantage. Chiwenga submitted a dossier to the Zanu-PF politburo, accusing businessmen aligned with the president of state capture and industrial-scale corruption. But Mnangagwa's faction dismissed the dossier as "fundamentally flawed" and "treasonous," neutralizing what could have been a significant challenge to his authority.
Chiwenga's campaign to block Mnangagwa's extended rule was not new; it has been ongoing since January, often carried out by proxies like war veterans, including Blessed Geza. That campaign even escalated into a bid to unseat Mnangagwa through mass action earlier in the year. Yet Mnangagwa's deft handling of the army, combined with purges within the party, ensured that Chiwenga's efforts were blunted.
At the conference itself, Mnangagwa's loyalists mobilized grassroots support for the "ED2030" campaign, turning the event into a showcase of his party dominance. The resolution directing the government to initiate legislative amendments for a term extension passed with little resistance. This was a stark reminder of Mnangagwa's control over Zanu-PF's machinery and a symbolic erosion of Chiwenga's influence, once considered a kingmaker since the 2017 removal of Robert Mugabe.
Chiwenga's expectations of succession have been shattered. Mnangagwa is now positioning his preferred successors-either Defence Forces Commander Phillip Valerio Sibanda or business mogul Kudakwashe Tagwirei-to safeguard his personal and business interests post-presidency. Chiwenga, once an indispensable ally, is no longer in the inner circle of decision-making.
Money proved decisive in the power play. While Chiwenga relied on perceived military support, Mnangagwa anchored his campaign on the wealth and influence of his business allies. This financial muscle, coupled with strategic mobilisation, effectively neutralized Chiwenga's military card. Since leaving the army, Chiwenga's institutional influence has waned; he now faces the daunting task of building a political and social base capable of challenging Mnangagwa, a task that requires resources, strategists, and public support-none of which come easily.
Yet, despite this setback, it would be premature to declare Chiwenga defeated. Mnangagwa may have won the battle at Mutare, but the war for succession and influence within Zanu-PF is far from over. Chiwenga's loss is strategic, not existential. Should he recalibrate, gather support, and mobilize resources effectively, Mnangagwa's triumph could become a Pyrrhic victory, delaying but not preventing future challenges to his rule.
The ED2030 resolution underscores a broader concern: the personalization of power and the erosion of institutional safeguards. While Mnangagwa has demonstrated political acumen, Zimbabweans must question the precedent this sets for governance, succession, and democracy. Party resolutions should not override constitutional limits, and the citizens' mandate must remain the ultimate check on power.
Mnangagwa has played the political chessboard masterfully, but the game is far from over. For Zimbabwe, the question remains: will 2030 be a testament to political strategy or a cautionary tale of power unbound?
Source - online
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