Recalls meant to cement Zanu-PF's power, claims 'think tank'

The recent recalls of MPs and councillors affiliated with the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) by the party's "interim secretary general" Sengezo Tshabangu have been analyzed by the Zimbabwe Institute for Democracy (ZDI). According to ZDI's report on "The Politics of Recalls - Democratic Fragility and Opposition Vulnerability in Zimbabwe," these recalls are strategically aimed at consolidating Zanu-PF's power and eliminating political opponents in the country.

ZDI's report suggests that the recalls not only expose the fragility of democracy and the vulnerability of the opposition in Zimbabwe but also increase the ruling party's chances of attaining a two-thirds majority in Parliament, which would diminish the opposition's representation.

The National Assembly speaker Jacob Mudenda and Senate President Mable Chinomona recently implemented recalls initiated by Tshabangu, resulting in 15 MPs and nine Senators losing their positions. In a letter to Local Government Minister Winston Chitando, Tshabangu also withdrew 17 Councillors, asserting that they were no longer members of the opposition.

However, CCC leader Nelson Chamisa discredited the recalls as having been made in "fraudulent letters" and done erroneously.

The ZDI report posits that these recalls are part of a broader securocratic state-building strategy employed by the ruling Zanu-PF party, which aims to solidify its power and eliminate potential challengers. This strategy prioritizes security over liberty, prioritizes stability over peace, and combines liberal and illiberal elements to achieve non-doctrinaire ambitions.

The strategy involves coercion, manipulation, and patronage to create a loyal and compliant citizenry while pursuing selective economic reforms and social engineering to project an image of modernity and progress.

The report suggests that these recalls are part of a broader dual securocratic state consolidation project, which aims to counter internal and external legitimacy challenges posed by the opposition. Simultaneously, it aims to weaken the opposition's influence in parliament to pave the way for President Mnangagwa's third term ambitions. The court's endorsement of these recalls and Zanu-PF's success in by-elections could enable constitutional amendments, power entrenchment, and a potential third term for President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The ZDI alleges that Mnangagwa aims to remove the two-term presidential limit enshrined in the Constitution. The report further implies that Zanu-PF might be involved in or cooperating with disgruntled CCC individuals to facilitate these recalls and benefit from a fractured and weakened opposition.

ZDI anticipates that by-elections may lead to Zanu-PF regaining control of unstable rural constituencies where it previously lost by narrow margins, such as Beitbridge West and Lupane East.