Zimbabwe braces for another El Nino drought

Zimbabwe could face another severe drought during the 2026-27 agricultural season, with climate experts warning that an emerging El Nino weather pattern is likely to heighten the risk of crop failures, food insecurity and humanitarian challenges across southern Africa.

The warning comes barely two years after the devastating 2023-24 El Nino-induced drought, which left nearly seven million Zimbabweans in need of urgent food assistance.

According to a new *Inter-Agency Report of the Global El Nino Southern Oscillation Analysis Cell* titled *El Nino Status and Humanitarian Outlook*, there is an 80% probability that El Nino conditions will develop between June and August 2026.

The report further projects a 90% likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through November, increasing the probability of widespread climate shocks in vulnerable regions, particularly southern Africa.

It warns that the evolving weather pattern presents an opportunity for governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare before seasonal hazards translate into widespread food insecurity, displacement, disease outbreaks and humanitarian emergencies.

Zimbabwe is among five southern African countries identified as being at heightened risk during the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season, alongside Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar.

The report warns that reduced rainfall could lead to poor harvests, water shortages, rising food prices and worsening nutrition outcomes.

"These countries are still recovering from the 2023-24 El Nino and reduced funding and livelihood erosion limit recovery capacity ahead of the October-March rainy season," the report states.

It projects that drought conditions could significantly reduce planting and cereal production during the 2026-27 farming season.

"Drought is expected to curtail planting and yields of 2027 cereal crops. Maize — the primary food staple — is highly susceptible to water stress.

"Cereal production downturns of 30% or more are forecast. Livestock mortality from pasture loss. The 2027 lean season is likely to be severe."

The report also raises concerns over the potential public health impacts of El Nino, warning that prolonged dry conditions followed by erratic rainfall could contribute to outbreaks of cholera, increased malaria transmission and worsening malnutrition.

It urges governments and humanitarian organisations to strengthen preparedness by protecting water supplies, safeguarding agricultural production, reinforcing critical infrastructure and prioritising vulnerable groups, particularly children.

Climate change and environmental specialist Achieford Mhondera said Zimbabwe should now regard El Nino as a recurring climate risk rather than an unexpected disaster.

"For Zimbabweans, this phenomenon should not be viewed as a surprise disaster, but it has graduated to be a recurring, predictable climate cycle," Mhondera said.

"Understanding El Nino means recognising that the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season is highly prone to drought, particularly for rain-fed agriculture."

He urged farmers and households to adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices to reduce vulnerability.

"This means that farmers must adopt climate-smart agriculture, agroecology and shift focus towards drought-tolerant seed varieties, for example traditional small grains like sorghum and millet, and adopt moisture-conservation farming methods such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa," he said.

Zimbabwe continues to recover from the severe impacts of the 2023-24 agricultural season, when prolonged dry spells and extreme temperatures devastated crops, caused significant livestock losses and deepened food insecurity across the country.

The crisis prompted a large-scale humanitarian response, with the World Food Programme seeking approximately US$36.5 million to sustain food assistance programmes as millions of Zimbabweans struggled with the combined effects of climate shocks and economic pressures.

The latest forecast is expected to place renewed pressure on government, humanitarian agencies and farming communities to accelerate preparedness measures ahead of the 2026-27 planting season.