Fidelity expects record gold deliveries

Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) has revised its annual gold delivery forecast, now expecting 45 tonnes by the end of 2025 - surpassing its initial target of 40 tonnes - as miners seek to capitalise on soaring gold prices.

Speaking at the Association of Mine Managers of Zimbabwe's annual conference in Victoria Falls, FGR general manager Peter Magaramombe said the revised projection reflects sustained delivery trends.

"The current monthly gold delivery average is four tonnes. If this trend continues until year-end, we expect an additional five tonnes, bringing total deliveries to 45 tonnes, exceeding our original target by five tonnes," Magaramombe explained.

At current prices of US$4 051.61 per ounce, the projected deliveries translate to gold exports worth approximately US$5.85 billion for the year.

Small-scale miners have been a key contributor, accounting for over 70% of deliveries in the first half of 2025, with 14.56 tonnes supplied. Magaramombe attributed this to favourable incentives, including 100% foreign exchange retention and payment of 5% per 500 grams delivered to FGR.

"The trend shows gold deliveries grew by an average of 29% during the period under review. Total deliveries have risen from 29.6 tonnes in 2021 to 40 tonnes as of November 20, 2025," he noted.

The general manager said supportive government policies, a stabilised macroeconomic environment, enhanced payment transparency, and formalisation of the artisanal and small-scale mining sector have contributed to the growth.

Looking ahead, FGR projects deliveries of 50 tonnes in 2026, representing an 11% increase over the 45 tonnes expected in 2025. The projection assumes an average gold price of US$4 600 per ounce, despite forecasts by Goldman Sachs indicating prices could reach US$4 900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Magaramombe also highlighted efforts to curb illicit gold smuggling, noting collaboration between the Gold Trade Enforcement Unit and the Zimbabwe Republic Police's Illusion Monitoring Programme.

"These efforts have been highly successful in combating illicit financial flows, preventing money laundering, and ensuring that gold entering the formal system comes from legitimate sources," he said.