Zimbabwe political coalition marriage on the rocks

Two years after its inception Zimbabwe's government of national unity is on the brink of collapse. Relations between President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai have broken down irrevocably. So much so in fact that the president's Zanu-PF party is reported to be planning Tsvangirai's arrest on allegations of contempt of court.
This follows his angry denunciation of the judiciary for its supreme court ruling that nullified the election of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) parliamentary speaker Lovemore Moyo.
This is just the latest in a series of incidents, including the arrest of MDC energy minister Elton Mangoma two weeks ago on allegations of corruption, demonstrating that the two parties can no longer work together.
Despite this, the SA mediators continue to claim that the government of national unity is still functional and will soon agree on a "roadmap" setting out the framework for fresh elections.
On the face of it both main parties ' Zanu-PF and the MDC ' want elections this year, but because Tsvangirai's party is insisting that elections can be held only once a new constitution and electoral reforms are in place, a 2011 poll is unlikely.
The official line from the parliamentary committee responsible for drafting a new constitution is that the process will be complete by mid year. B ut politicians say that a draft agreed by the committee will be no more than the basis for negotiations that could take months, if not years.
All of this means that the loveless marriage will have to survive another year of worsening tensions or that the MDC will have to agree to a poll which it knows will be rigged against it. Mugabe wants elections soon because he senses a window of opportunity in the West's growing preoccupation with the Middle East. He is also benefiting from the diamond windfall of at least US$100m/month, which his party is better placed to exploit than the MDC, and the improved economic outlook largely pegged to booming world commodity prices and interest from Brazil, Russia, India and China (Bric) in Zimbabwe's mineral and land resources.
Mugabe believes, probably rightly, that the West's influence over Zimbabwe will continue to diminish and that by hitching its wagon to the West, the MDC has blundered tactically.
Though the MDC would be favourite to win a reasonably free and fair election, there is little doubt that it has lost ground over the past year, in part because it has failed to deliver on many of its promises, but also because again and again it has been seen to be outwitted by the president .
Like him or loathe him, Mugabe is a consummate politician and astute tactician, especially in comparison with the popular, but indecisive Tsvangirai whose flip-flop management style is the despair of some of his top aides.
To be fair to Tsvangirai, the odds are heavily weighted against him. His advisers who negotiated the so-called Global Political Agreement bestowed him with the position of prime minister, with responsibility but little power. The real power lies with the Zanu-PF politburo, the military, the police and the bench ' all of which are Zanu-PF-dominated.
In this situation, Tsvangirai's increasing frustration is understandable, especially as African political leaders look north. They will be fearfully watching events in North Africa and will be disinclined to be seen to be supporting a trade union populist like Tsvangirai against a founding father, liberation hero and one of their own.
The good news for Zimbabweans is that so long as the commodity boom continues, the economy, which grew 8% last year, will continue its recovery. Finance minister Tendai Biti forecasts 9,3% growth in 2011 with modest inflation of 4,5%. However, because investment is constrained by political uncertainty, not least Zanu-PF's indigenisation plan (where it has been mooted that 51% of all businesses in Zimbabwe be held by Zimbabweans) hanging over foreign business like the sword of Damocles, this upturn could run out of steam.
What business needs is early elections that result in a popularly elected and internationally recognised government. Ironically, though, business leaders have set their face against elections in 2011, arguing that the process would be flawed, violent and unlikely to throw up a clear- cut winner. So business says it prefers the devil it knows ' a dysfunctional coalition government ' to the unknown.
This is all very well for the time being but continuing economic momentum depends on world prices and some take-up of spare capacity. There are very real limits to growth, especially infrastructural bottlenecks and particularly electricity.
Then there is the $7bn foreign debt overhang, $5bn of it in arrears. There is little prospect of securing a debt-restructuring deal with Zimbabwe's creditors until a new government is in place.
So though growth rates of 8% or 9% may sound impressive, in truth the economy is doing little more than tread water. Jobs are still being shed as firms come to grips with "the new normal" of dollarisation. The finance ministry is unable to finance more than a third of departmental spending bids, and crucial strategic decisions are on hold while investors wait for the politicians to sort out their differences.
Zimbabwe is a country that has long been failed by its politicians, as well as by regional and Western leaders. It is crying out for leadership, which neither the 87- year-old president nor Tsvangirai seems able to provide, suggesting that the status quo will drag on for some time yet. There is no shortage of theories of what it will take to break the log jam, ranging from Mugabe's health to Tsvangirai's dismissal by the military, tantamount to a coup.
The South Africans like to believe that they can manage a "soft landing", but if truth be told a smooth transition is more likely to be achieved despite Pretoria than because of it.