Chiwenga missed with his first shot?

Chiwenga dramatically took direct aim at President Emmerson Mnangagwa on the firing range for the first time in their epic and high-stakes succession battle.

His "arsenal" was in the form of an explosive "dossier" which allegedly incriminated Mnangagwa alleged state capture kingpins.

He allegedly demanded that they be arrested and queried why that had not been done at that point.

According to multiple reports, so shaken was Mnangagwa the allegedly offered to resign – before making a hasty retreat to the Politburo, where he sought to find succour in familiar and less hostile territory.

What Did Chiwenga Seek To Achieve?

He sought to send an unequivocal and powerful message to Mnangagwa that a turning point had now been reached in the succession battle – a measure of last resort tantamount to the severing of their long and enduring umbilical chord, or whatever is left of it.

It was an escalatory gesture of monumental consequence and made its mark on all of Mnangagwa physical and mental realm – which was captured in all its pomp and glory via one of the most abiding images of the succession battle – Mnangagwa turning his head and serenely meeting Chiwenga's ice-cold and stern gaze, blow to blow, in broad daylight and close quarters!

The unmistakable message was that of defiance, fearlessness and readiness to engage in mortal combat.

Metaphors were ditched and replaced with direct, uncompromising, menacing and accusatory prose!

The grand prize Chiwenga was seeking was Mnangagwa capitulation from the 2030 choreographed misadventurism and a return to their oft stated November 2017 power sharing gentlemen's pact.

What Did He Achieve?
Whilst he demonstrably shook Mnangagwa to his boots, he effectively let him off the hook and left him to fight another day, a highly dangerous outcome in a finely balanced and high octane succession battle.

You see, "dossiers" don't deliver power, not in Zimbabwe. They help to shape the narrative. The narrative matters afterwards, not before toppling a "King" from his throne.

Of what use is a "dossier" in an environment in which all state institutions are captured? Who orders the arrest? Who makes the arrest? Who prosecutes? How long does that take? Who convicts?

Who sentences? Who enforces the sentence and superintends the jails? You get the drift. At that very moment, having waited for so long to fire the first salvo, Chiwenga needed to be in a position to fire not just the first one, but all salvos in one fell swoop!

Given the stakes involved, a dossier could only be of use as part of a grand scheme of subterfuge, to probe defences, distract and waylay before delivering the coup de grace!

In those corridors of power, you are talking about Russian Roulette of the highest order. There is rarely the luxury of a second take!

Enter "Mr Manhize" (Mutsvangwa) and "Manhize O'clock!"
A direct consequence of the political theatre highlighted above is that Mnangagwa the most of the reprieve that he unexpectedly received from Chiwenga.

Having blindsided Chiwenga through offering a dramatic resignation – the very prize that Chiwenga is investing every morsel in his body pursuing, Mnangagwa rightly calculated that such an anti-climatic offer would not be taken seriously – and cunningly used it to jar Chiwenga and defuse the tense and distressing situation in order to buy more time to re-strategise.

Chiwenga could have easily called Mnangagwa's bluff by accepting the resignation – before directing him to make this formally – while fixing a chokehold on this via mobilising party institutions (and his deep state allies) to recognise it as having been made voluntarily – until all formalities had been completed!

Instead reports say Chiwenga settled for a committee to investigate the allegations that he had made, presided over by Muchinguri and a few others – a clearly underwhelming and inconsequential outcome – a classic case of mothballing the case!

That is where "Mr Manhize" comes in.
His task is simple: defuse, dismantle and recalibrate the narrative in Mnangagwa's favour while politically decompressing/sucking the life out of Chiwenga's momentum and presidential ambitions.

Chiwenga's allegations have effectively been kicked out of touch.
All of a sudden, "Manhize" talks about democracy, elections and a future Zanu-PF presidential candidate race in 2027!

Two years from now! The Significance Of Manhize's Volt Face On Steroids!

Perfecting the art of treachery and self-indulgence to a tee, Manhize took centre stage ans waged a sustained campaign of self-promotion and disinformation high-level chessborad politics.

On one hand, to continue the façade of being Pro-Mnangagwa, he sided with the President in defending businessmen Kudakwashe Tagwirei, Wicknell Chivayo, Pedzisayo Sakupwanya et al as legitimate business figures – effectively contemptuously asking Chiwenga to go and report them to the "authorities!" figures appointed and controlled by Mnangagwa!

On the other hand, equally to maintain the façade of being a "revolutionary," he reiterated the fact that Tagwirei had still not been incorporated into Zanu-PF's Central Committee by dint of not having been formally issued a letter of appointment issued by none other than Mnangagwa himself, the very person who is being accused of orchestrating this very saga!

You must pay attention to this confusing spectre as I break it down here – we want to lay bare/decode why there is a hidden method to the "madness" in the apparent contradiction in Manhize's posturing.

He is doing a fine job of delicately tryins to balance competing interests – personal interest/alleged and barely disguised presidential ambitions, loyalty to Mnangagwa the perfunctory attention he gives to his official party post.

It's likely that he has calculated that he can strike a delicate balance between exonerating Tagwirei and his cabal from any alleged criminality (which would inevitably and effectively) implicate Mnangagwa and engulf him in scandal) and torpedoing his Central Committee appointment (effectively temporarily ruling out/eliminating Tagwirei as a potential contender in the Zanu-PF succession race).

That very approach also undermines Chiwenga's presidential ambitions and the "Zvigananda" narrative as it leaves Tagwirei unscathed and free to continue carrying out his current shenanigans.

Thus, while there is a narrow window showcasing a convergence of interests between Chiwenga and "Manhize," it's fortuitous and flames out almost instantaneously, before the next political junction.

Manhize is currently the only one having his cake and eating it.

He can reap the financial dividends of backing Tagwirei and his cabal on the criminality issue, the political dividends of the same action from ED, the political dividends of keeping Chiwenga out (which converges with Mnangagwa and Tagwirei's interests), the political dividends of keeping Tagwirei out and mothballing Mnangagwa's 2030 agenda while feigning batting for it), which only benefits "Mr Manhize" himself and perhaps leaves him drooling about the tantalising prospect of being the last man standing further down the road!

Conclusion

The above is just a mid-week snap shot of the current intricacies of the political gamesmanship on display in Zimbabwe's titanic factional power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga.

It's clear that Mnangagwa, Manhize, Tagwirei and crew simply believe that they can run rings around Chiwenga/run him ragged through elaborate or long-winded manoeuvres – while Chiwenga's "dossiergate" and reports that he allegedly ordered retired military veterans to re-enlist in the army suggests that perhaps he has got no qualms about settling the contest through bringing his reputed military capital to bear!

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Brighton Matebuka is a UK-based Zimbabwean lawyer and political commentator.