Army checkmates Mnangagwa?

After President Emmerson Mnangagwa on Monday told selected editors at State House that he will not extend his rule beyond his 2028 second-term constitutional limit, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga's military-backed Zanu-PF faction played checkmate, bringing the ED2030 campaign to a screeching halt.

Chiwenga's faction had already unleashed war veterans to pressure Mnangagwa into abandoning his third-term project while also demanding his departure, accusing him of dismal failure. The war veterans further charged Mnangagwa with nepotism, mismanagement, cronyism, corruption, and incompetence.

Mnangagwa's allies fought back against the war veterans, particularly targeting Blessed Geza, who became their most vocal critic. Geza has since fled the country after facing backlash from Mnangagwa's allies, officials, youth league leaders, and ministers. Police are currently hunting for Geza, who now faces four criminal charges, including allegedly undermining the authority of and insulting the President. Authorities are also contemplating a murder charge against him.

Following Monday's turning point, the display of armoured personnel carriers in Harare yesterday was widely interpreted as a show of military strength amid the ongoing succession power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga. The unresolved leadership tensions have been simmering for some time, with Chiwenga reportedly consolidating support within the military and Zanu-PF to block Mnangagwa's attempt to extend his rule beyond two terms.

Although Mnangagwa repeatedly denied any intentions to remain in power beyond 2028, his actions often contradicted his statements. Chiwenga has moved to tighten his grip on the military, evidenced by the recent appointments of his allies, Zimbabwe National Army commander Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe and Air Marshal John Jacob Nzvede, as the army and air force chiefs, respectively. These strategic moves are seen as efforts to position Chiwenga's allies in influential roles, paving the way for a major political challenge to Mnangagwa.

Mnangagwa, however, still retains some influence through Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Philip Valerio Sibanda, whose tenure he recently extended by a year. Sibanda had been expected to retire, presenting an opportunity for Chiwenga to further consolidate his power. Mnangagwa attempted to transition Sibanda into mainstream politics by appointing him to the Zanu-PF decision-making politburo as a counterbalance to Chiwenga, but the move failed due to constitutional restrictions.

Having allowed his allies and supporters to campaign for a third term, and after forcing through a crucial resolution at the Zanu-PF annual conference in Bulawayo last October, Mnangagwa's plan has now unraveled. The display of military hardware in Harare was seen as a clear show of force by Chiwenga's faction, signaling their readiness to take control.

Military sources and analysts viewed the show of power as a significant moment, highlighting the army's leverage in Zimbabwean politics. Armoured personnel carriers, typically used to transport troops and equipment in combat zones, were displayed publicly, demonstrating military strength. While such displays are common for ceremonial purposes in many nations, in Zimbabwe's politically charged climate, the parade carried deeper implications.

The brandishing of military hardware can influence public perception, serving as both a demonstration of strength and a potential tool for coercion. Given Zimbabwe's history of political instability and human rights concerns, the military's involvement in this power struggle is cause for concern.

Ultimately, the parading of armoured personnel carriers in Harare underscores the complexities and nuances of Zimbabwe's political landscape. While it signals Mnangagwa's apparent checkmate, it also raises broader questions about the military's role in governance.

This development heightens concerns over the country's stability, already undermined by severe economic challenges. As the power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga escalates, Zimbabweans are left uncertain about their nation's future.