Mnangagwa faces his waterloo

he Zanu-PF succession battle between Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga is reaching a critical juncture as the confrontation escalates ahead of the March 31 deadline. The unfolding power struggle has far-reaching implications for Zimbabwe's political future, making it essential to analyze the dynamics at play, the projected trajectory, and the possible outcomes.

The media, including The NewsHawks, has been closely following this story, dissecting the high-stakes maneuvering within the ruling party. In a recent podcast, UK-based investigative journalist Maynard Manyowa and his Dug Up team examined the roles of key players, including Mnangagwa, Chiwenga, and Zanu-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa. Mutsvangwa, a long-time Mnangagwa ally, has publicly opposed Chiwenga's bid for leadership, arguing that Mnangagwa prefers a democratic process through an elective congress rather than anointment.

Mutsvangwa has been highly critical of Chiwenga, labeling him as incompetent and unfit to govern. He asserts that Mnangagwa aims to extend his rule beyond 2028 through a constitutional amendment and by securing the 2027 Zanu-PF congress. Despite his public denials, Mnangagwa is seen as maneuvering behind the scenes to secure a third term.

The strategy involves pushing Chiwenga into a 2027 congress battle, where Mutsvangwa believes he will be outmaneuvered due to perceived unpopularity. The groundwork for Mnangagwa's extended rule has already been laid, as evidenced by last year's Zanu-PF conference resolution in Gweru, which endorsed his leadership beyond 2028.

The Military Factor and Historical Context

Mutsvangwa argues that the military will not intervene on Chiwenga's behalf, suggesting that the army will remain neutral. However, historical precedents indicate that the military has been the ultimate power broker in Zimbabwean politics, particularly since the Mgagao Declaration in 1975, which involved Chiwenga himself.

The role of the military in Mnangagwa's 2017 rise to power remains a crucial backdrop to the current battle. The coup that ousted former President Robert Mugabe was preceded by extensive military preparations, including a $20 million deal with South Africa-based Boomslang Logistics to refurbish old armored vehicles. The coup was not resisted due to Mugabe's miscalculations and the weakened state of his loyalists within the security forces. Mugabe, who sought foreign intervention to stop the coup, was ultimately unsuccessful as regional powers declined to assist.

Mutsvangwa's version of events places significant blame on former intelligence chief Happyton Bonyongwe, claiming that his signing of death warrants for army generals accelerated the coup. However, evidence suggests that Bonyongwe sought to prevent the coup rather than trigger it. Documents indicate that Mugabe's reluctance to meet military commanders, combined with his moves to charge Mnangagwa and key army figures with treason, were the primary catalysts.

The Road to 2030: Mnangagwa's Game Plan

Following the 2017 coup, Mnangagwa initially sought an inclusive political arrangement, considering alliances with opposition figures like the late Morgan Tsvangirai and Dumiso Dabengwa. However, as political realities shifted, he consolidated power and distanced himself from Chiwenga.

The first major rift between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga occurred after the June 23, 2018, grenade attack at a Zanu-PF rally in Bulawayo. This event deepened mistrust between the two factions. The tension further escalated at the December 2018 Zanu-PF conference at Esigodini, where Mnangagwa openly began preparing for a second term.

Since then, Mnangagwa's focus has been on securing an extension of his rule. His supporters argue that he has the political capital and internal party support to achieve this, while Chiwenga's camp remains fragmented and uncertain about its next move.

The Implications of a Prolonged Power Struggle

The ongoing battle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga threatens to destabilize Zanu-PF and Zimbabwe's broader political landscape. If Mnangagwa succeeds in amending the constitution and securing his rule until 2030, it could lead to further internal divisions and possible defections within the ruling party. On the other hand, if Chiwenga manages to rally support within the military or party structures, the political scene could become even more volatile.

With March 31 looming as a critical date, the political maneuvering within Zanu-PF is intensifying. Whether Mnangagwa manages to cement his power or faces an unexpected challenge from Chiwenga remains to be seen, but the outcome will undoubtedly shape Zimbabwe's political future in the years ahead.