Anticipated weak La Niña likely drives average to above-average rainfall in Zimbabwe

FEWS NET Zimbabwe has projected that an anticipated weak La Niña will likely result in average to above-average rainfall across Zimbabwe during the October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season.


According to the report, the expected rainfall will help replenish surface and underground water sources, support crop development at normal to above-normal levels, and boost agricultural labor activities.

"The higher-than-normal availability of livestock supplementary feeds, such as the 2024/25 stover and hay (during the dry season), and the anticipated normal to above-normal 2025 pasture regeneration and water supply (with the 2025/26 rainy season), will likely enhance livestock conditions in semi-arid areas, especially in the southern, eastern, western, and far northern areas," the report stated.

This improvement is expected to prevent distress livestock sales and deaths that have plagued previous drought years. The rainfall is also likely to support the normal to above-normal harvesting of Mopane worms (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern and western regions, providing both nutrition and income for vulnerable households.

However, the report warns of potential flooding and waterlogging in flood-prone areas due to the above-average 2024/25 rains and the forecasted rainfall for the upcoming season.

"Forecasts also indicate an average to above-average likelihood of tropical cyclones across the Southern Africa region, which may impact mainly the eastern parts of Zimbabwe," the report added. Past cyclones have caused loss of life, infrastructure damage, and disrupted livelihoods.

Above-average temperatures are also expected between September and January. While these may benefit crop growth if dry spells are avoided, risks include water and heat stress on crops and livestock, negative impacts on water bodies, and increased chances of violent thunderstorms.