Zimbabwe flagged as emerging hub in Southern Africa's illicit arms

Zimbabwe is increasingly being identified as a potential node in a growing illicit arms and contraband network across southern Africa, according to a new assessment by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC).

The report, released this week as part of the Global Organised Crime Index 2025, warns that porous borders, weak enforcement systems and entrenched corruption are enabling criminal syndicates to exploit regional trade routes for firearms, counterfeit goods and other illicit commodities.

Zimbabwe's geographic position along the North-South Corridor — a key transport artery linking southern African ports to inland markets — is cited as a strategic factor making the country vulnerable to transnational criminal flows.

"The arms trafficking market in Zimbabwe is linked to the country's historical conflicts, including wars in Angola, Mozambique and South Africa," the GI-TOC said. "No dominant criminal group controls arms trafficking but independent criminal networks, security companies and former combatants contribute to the illegal trade."

The report suggests that Zimbabwe's illicit arms market is part of a broader regional shadow economy that has evolved from decades of conflict and weak border governance. While precise figures remain difficult to establish, analysts estimate Africa accounts for between 20% and 30% of global illicit small arms flows, potentially representing a market worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

GI-TOC says Zimbabwe has undertaken periodic arms amnesty programmes to recover illegal weapons, but notes that firearms continue to circulate within criminal networks, contributing to armed robberies and cross-border trafficking, particularly from South Africa.

Authorities have previously acknowledged challenges related to smuggling, although they have often disputed aspects of external reports. Mines and Mining Development Minister Polite Kambamura has in earlier responses rejected allegations of illegal mining activity, saying enforcement efforts remain active.

Beyond arms trafficking, the report highlights the spread of counterfeit goods, illegal alcohol production and cigarette smuggling as increasingly embedded features of Zimbabwe's informal economy.

"Counterfeit alcohol is widely produced and sold in taverns, posing health risks to consumers," the report notes, adding that enforcement operations are often undermined by corruption and the rapid re-emergence of illicit networks.

GI-TOC further warns that corruption among border and law enforcement officials continues to facilitate cross-border smuggling, particularly along routes between Zimbabwe and South Africa. Price differences between the two countries are said to be a key driver of cigarette and alcohol smuggling operations.

A separate study cited in the report suggests illicit financial flows along the South Africa–Zimbabwe corridor may exceed US$3.1 billion annually, driven by trade-based money laundering, gold smuggling and cryptocurrency-related transactions. The research also identified shell company networks allegedly moving hundreds of millions of dollars through complex financial systems.

The Zimbabwe Financial Intelligence Unit has previously estimated that nearly US$2 billion was generated through smuggling and illicit trade between 2019 and 2024, with gold and precious stones among the largest contributors.

The GI-TOC report also raises concerns about human trafficking and migrant smuggling, noting that Zimbabwe functions as a source, transit and destination country. Women are reportedly trafficked through fake job offers to parts of the Middle East, while vulnerable groups, including children, are exploited in illegal mining and agricultural work.

Drug trafficking is also described as a growing concern, with Zimbabwe increasingly used as both a transit route and destination within regional narcotics networks.

Despite ongoing enforcement efforts, the report concludes that Zimbabwe and the broader region continue to lack the technological capacity and coordinated cross-border intelligence systems required to effectively dismantle sophisticated transnational criminal networks.

As illicit trade networks expand across southern Africa, analysts warn that the convergence of weak border controls, economic pressures and corruption could further deepen Zimbabwe's exposure to organised crime unless significant governance reforms are implemented.