Without reforms, no fair election

The Movement of Democratic Party won the 2008 election, but Zanu Pf government simply refused to transfer power, and having withheld election results for more than a month without an explanation to the public, announced an election runoff before announcing election results. Since 1995 elections, Robert Mugabe's government has always ignored or rejected the people of Zimbabwe's wishes. His government has been imposing itself on the people since that time with members of the opposition being brutalised, killed and forced to flee the country. In 2013's election systematic disenfranchisement through selective voter registration, bottlenecking voting rates at some strategic polling stations. It managed to do this through manipulating initially, the Registrar's office and of late, is trying to achieve this through arm twisting ZEC though this is proving difficult as the opposition has upped its vigilance and guard.  

But if ZEC, spurred on by the ruling government, decides to cheat the whole nation as to guarantee Zanu pf win, then there is no point for any opposition party to participate in an election in which it is impossible to win. ZEC has already shown efforts to cheat by trying to use the same methods previously used by election bodies, under Zanu pf control, to cheat. For example like I alluded to above, under the much rewarded Tobaiwa Mudede as registrar general, voter registration was exclusive to areas where Zanu pf considered its strongholds. In areas where it considered opposition areas, voting was stifled and many stringent conditions were put to disenfranchise as many potential voters as possible. ZEC as of now has put a proof of residence condition in bid to exclude may urban dwellers and others. We wonder what will be used in rural areas where they don't have water or electricity bills. ZEC has to openly explain to the nation and opposition parties how it will go about this. We all thought with BVR there will not be any duplication. Proof of residence requirement is an effort to avoid duplication, but BVR process will not be able to register any person twice with the same fingerprints for example unless if the kits are Zhing Zhongs.

We also continue to notice that ZBC TV and Radio continue to cover only Zanu pf rallies, congresses and campaigns. All other opposition parties' programmes are ignored or at least, ridiculed. ZBC continues to force all radio and television holders to pay licences, regardless of political affiliation. Zimbabweans are forced to pay for government to continue to oppress them through propaganda spewing ZBC. The constitution says state media should afford all parties equal access and coverage for campaigns. The opposition should not be naive and ignore the fact he who has the largest voice controls the people. This worked in 2008 to keep people from protesting the withholding of results by Zanu Pf as the national broadcasts urged people to remain calm while Zanu pf was busy manipulating the results. If opposition cannot be allowed to use state media to access the electorate, then it can be easily isolated from many other pathways.

If one is to go into a boxing ring to fight with an opponent, will he still agree to the fight say he discovers the opponent busy stuffing metal objects under his own gloves. After catching his opponent red handed, will he still agree to go into the ring thinking he will keep missing punches when in fact only one punch on target would make him pass out and loose the fight. So the opposition must stop being naive and demand the levelling of the electoral field first, have at least have the minimum conditions that can guarantee a fair election fulfilled. No election must take place under such anomalies and heavy skews that only favour Robert Mugabe and his party, why be used to give legitimacy on a platter to Robert Mugabe.

In 2013 the opposition was duped by a BaJukwa into participating in an election with skewed settings, here Jukwa had forecasted 67% win for Tsvangirai. Now Tsvangirai is being duped again by the army that they will not oppose him. How many times will he be duped, we still have to discover. He was duped at the constitution referendum, after we had warned that what happened to Raile Ondinga would happen to him after he assisted in making a flawed constitution for Kenya. Up to now Kenyans are still fighting the government to have it agree to fair elections, for which the country's electoral commission was recently disbanded after it was clear that it was heavily biased towards the ruling party. Zimbabweans should also press for the disbandment and reconstitution of ZEC. Soon after the constitutional plebiscite in 2013, Robert Mugabe wasted no time and quickly and adamantly used the loopholes in the same constitution to unilaterally promulgate election dates and to disregard opposition concerns of manipulating the voter registering process. In Uganda Besigye lost to Yoweri Museveni five consecutive times, because was so naive that he thought he would win in an election where Museveni was controlling virtually every election aspect that can sway an polling in his own favour. Yoweri controls state media in Uganda, he also manipulates Uganda Electoral body, the army swears allegiance to him and interferes with politics, and the judiciary isn't neutral for he appoints all the top judges, just like Robert Mugabe does with Zimbabwe's Judiciary system. Tell me then, just how Besigye thought he would win in such a slanted electoral environment. Tsvangirai and others must not think they can win under almost identical conditions here in Zimbabwe. Press for reforms first, I urge the parties. There is no guarantee that Zanu pf will transfer power even if the opposition wins. Our regional body SADC is whole lot different to Gambian neighbours that resolved to put up military pressure on the Gambian dictator Jammeh to vacate, after he lost and hesitated to transfer power to wining opposition. In such a scenario in Zimbabwe, just like in 2008 where Zanu PF lost and simply refused to transfer power, SADC might just engage their quiet diplomacy.

The one centre of power ideology in Zanu pf tells all about whether the part is prepared to allow any other party to rule besides itself. One centre of power is a straightjacket principle that excludes and shuns democratic processes in the party itself and beyond. In the Zanu pf party one center of power ideology is explicitly spelt and enforced, but in national election process it takes the form of systematic manipulation of the voting process that clandestinely control, arm-twist and influence ZEC into making decisions that create an electoral turf largely in favour Robert Mugabe, so that the one centre of power still prevails through holding sham elections. Presidential elections are just a mere pretence.  

We observe in awe and foreboding that despite of all odds of winning, the major opposition political party is gearing to go on to participate not in a skewed election, but an impossible to win election.  Zanu pf government still controls the state media and determines who can campaign using the channels, it still has security forces sitting in ZEC, Zanu pf government still decides who the election observers can be, Zanu pf youths are still free to mete violence on opposition members scotfree, security forces still pledge allegiance to Zanu pf. With so many odds against it, that the opposition still imagines victory borders on idiocy, foolhardy and even betrayal of its own members and the utterly destroys all hope of the possibility of democracy happening & taking root in Zimbabwe.  Of course opposition may win some consolation parliamentary seats in the sham election, just to give the election a little dimension of fairness, but in Zimbabwe the parliament has never been effective in reigning excesses of the executive. The Zanu pf government actually controls parliament in Zimbabwe where simply appointed traditional chief's senators actually support and vote for every unsound Zanu pf policy. The fact that some in opposition will win parliamentary seats, while the executive disputably goes back to Zanu pf, might further divide the main opposition party as the parliamentary winners will accept  the election result, while Morgan Tsvangirai himself will be rejecting them. The holding of harmonised election by Zanu pf has not been by accident, or was done to save money, but in it is a wicked ploy to divide the opposition and cunningly generate confusion so as to steal victory amidst chaos. Where ignorance is bliss