Opinion / Columnist
The polls were correct: ED and Zanu-F won big
01 Aug 2018 at 09:14hrs | Views
In general, the last few years have not been great for pollsters. They have been misread all over the world. In America they correctly predicted that Hilary would win the popular vote, but failed in their analysis that Trump would win the electoral college. They knew Brexit would be close, but failed to predict that UK would vote to leave.
However, hats off to all the pollsters who correctly predicted a ZANU landslide. As a statistician and political geek, I went through all of these polls with a fine toothcomb. It was clear that ED was going to win big, especially in the traditional rural areas. ED had been given a great amount of credit by the voter in all focus groups. He was seen as a man of action, a man who could make real change, and above all a leader. In fact all the focus group results we saw showed one word stood up above them all, 'LEADERSHIP'. While the final Afrobarometer polls suggested things may be tighter than all the other polls, there was not one poll that suggested Nelson Chamisa ever had a chance.
So as I stayed up last night to watch all the results come in (with my excel spreadsheet at the ready) I went back to look at all the polls over the last 6 months. It turns out that they were right! Each and every collection of data, from phone polls to broader polls in the field predicted a large ED victory.
As the final results come in, we look forward to hopefully seeing more positive international responses to the elections. The Indian delegation already gave it their okay, and hopefully more will follow.
While of course we await the final results, it is no longer with baited breath. ED won big. And for once, all the polls got it right.
However, hats off to all the pollsters who correctly predicted a ZANU landslide. As a statistician and political geek, I went through all of these polls with a fine toothcomb. It was clear that ED was going to win big, especially in the traditional rural areas. ED had been given a great amount of credit by the voter in all focus groups. He was seen as a man of action, a man who could make real change, and above all a leader. In fact all the focus group results we saw showed one word stood up above them all, 'LEADERSHIP'. While the final Afrobarometer polls suggested things may be tighter than all the other polls, there was not one poll that suggested Nelson Chamisa ever had a chance.
As the final results come in, we look forward to hopefully seeing more positive international responses to the elections. The Indian delegation already gave it their okay, and hopefully more will follow.
While of course we await the final results, it is no longer with baited breath. ED won big. And for once, all the polls got it right.
Source - Mike Tawanda
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