Opinion / Columnist
Edgar Lungu, the Tonse Coalition, and Zambia's political landscape: A clash of visions ahead of the 2026 elections
14 Nov 2024 at 12:28hrs | Views
As Zambia gears up for the 2026 elections, the country's political scene is increasingly defined by the emerging rivalry between former President Edgar Lungu and current President Hakainde Hichilema, with the Tonse Coalition adding another layer to the complex political fabric. Lungu's re-entry into the political conversation, especially with the backing of the Tonse Coalition, marks a shift that could influence the trajectory of the upcoming elections. For Zambians, this rivalry represents not only a clash between two prominent leaders but also a contest between contrasting political visions and priorities for the country.
The Tonse Coalition, originally formed as an alliance of opposition groups united by shared values and common goals, has grown in influence and has now brought Edgar Lungu back into the fold. For Lungu, who served as Zambia's president from 2015 until his defeat in 2021, this coalition provides a renewed political platform. Though he initially stepped back from politics after his defeat, his recent moves suggest a potential comeback, signalling a renewed ambition to challenge Hichilema's administration.
The Tonse Coalition's support could serve as a strong base for Lungu's potential return to the political stage, as it unites various factions that were previously divided. The coalition's influence in the Zambian political landscape could present a serious challenge to Hichilema's United Party for National Development (UPND). With the 2026 elections approaching, this alliance may prove crucial in swaying undecided voters and energizing supporters who may feel disillusioned with Hichilema's performance.
The competition between Lungu and Hichilema represents more than just a political rivalry; it is a clash between two very different leadership styles and approaches to governance. During his time in office, Lungu was known for his emphasis on national security and infrastructure development, along with policies that aimed to strengthen Zambia's economic independence. However, he faced criticism for human rights abuses, allegations of corruption, and a shrinking civic space, which many believe contributed to his defeat in 2021.
Hichilema, on the other hand, campaigned on promises of transparency, economic reform, and a crackdown on corruption. After taking office, he quickly moved to reform Zambia's economic landscape, promising to tackle the national debt crisis and implement policies aimed at improving the country's business environment. However, his administration has faced challenges in delivering on some of these promises, leading to mixed public perceptions. While many still see Hichilema as a reformer, others feel that his government has not adequately addressed the country's pressing issues, particularly those affecting everyday citizens.
The contrasting leadership styles of Lungu and Hichilema could become a focal point in the 2026 elections. Lungu's supporters may view his potential return as a chance to restore what they see as stability, while Hichilema's base believes his administration represents a new era of governance and accountability. These differing visions for Zambia's future will play a central role in shaping voter opinions and could become a major deciding factor in the elections.
The Tonse Coalition's support for Lungu could change the dynamics of Zambian politics in several ways. Firstly, it has the potential to reinvigorate opposition forces and consolidate anti-Hichilema sentiments. By uniting various factions, the coalition could attract a broad spectrum of supporters who may have felt disenfranchised by the current administration. This could force Hichilema's UPND to reconsider its approach and possibly address criticisms related to economic hardships, social inequality, and public dissatisfaction.
The coalition's influence may also lead to heightened polarization within Zambia's political sphere. A consolidated opposition, especially with a figure as polarizing as Lungu, could intensify divisions within the country. While this may lead to a vibrant political environment, it also risks creating tensions that could destabilize the political climate, especially if the 2026 elections are highly contested.
Additionally, the Tonse Coalition's involvement may compel the UPND to focus more heavily on rural areas, where Lungu has historically had strong support. While Hichilema's reform agenda has gained support in urban centres, his government's ability to reach and address the concerns of rural populations could become a decisive factor in the election outcome. The Tonse Coalition's rural reach may give Lungu an advantage, requiring Hichilema's party to strengthen its engagement with rural voters.
The 2026 elections are likely to centre around key issues, including the economy, governance, and social stability. Zambia's economic performance will be a crucial factor for both parties, as citizens seek solutions to high unemployment, rising living costs, and inflation. Lungu's supporters argue that his administration was more attuned to the needs of rural communities and that his policies promoted job creation and local industry. Meanwhile, Hichilema's supporters claim that his reforms, while challenging, are necessary to steer Zambia toward a sustainable future.
Governance and anti-corruption efforts will also play a central role in the election discourse. While Hichilema promised to root out corruption, some critics believe that progress has been slower than anticipated. For Lungu, the challenge will be to address the allegations of corruption that marked his previous administration. Voters may demand accountability from both candidates, and their ability to address governance issues could heavily impact voter sentiment.
Social stability is another critical area of concern. During his tenure, Lungu's administration faced accusations of curtailing civil liberties and stifling dissent. In contrast, Hichilema has promoted freedom of expression and a more open civic space, although some activists argue that more needs to be done. The 2026 elections may therefore also hinge on the candidates' stances on civil rights and their willingness to foster an inclusive political environment.
International relations could also play a role in the 2026 elections. Hichilema's government has focused on mending ties with international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to address Zambia's debt crisis. However, this has led to mixed reactions domestically, with some viewing these partnerships as positive, while others see them as compromising Zambia's sovereignty.
Lungu's campaign, if it materializes, may focus on positioning Zambia as a self-sufficient nation, less reliant on external assistance. This stance could resonate with voters who are skeptical of international influence and believe in prioritizing Zambian solutions for Zambian problems. The differing foreign policy approaches of Lungu and Hichilema could, therefore, become a key consideration for voters who are concerned about Zambia's place on the global stage.
As the 2026 elections approach, Zambia finds itself at a crossroads. The contest between Hichilema and Lungu, potentially backed by the Tonse Coalition, reflects a broader debate about Zambia's direction. Will the nation embrace Hichilema's vision of reform and international engagement, or will it turn back to Lungu's approach, emphasizing national stability and economic independence?
For both leaders, connecting with voters and addressing their immediate needs will be critical. Hichilema will need to demonstrate that his reforms are making a tangible difference, particularly in alleviating economic pressures faced by ordinary citizens. Lungu, on the other hand, will need to convince voters that he can return to office with a renewed commitment to addressing past criticisms and fostering economic growth.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2026 elections will depend on how effectively each leader addresses Zambia's core challenges. In an environment shaped by the Tonse Coalition's resurgence, the stakes are high for both Hichilema and Lungu. With the nation watching closely, their actions and policies over the next two years could define the future of Zambia, setting the stage for either a continuation of reform or a return to a familiar, but reimagined, leadership.
As Zambia moves toward this crucial election, the importance of informed, engaged citizens will be more vital than ever. The next administration, regardless of who leads it, will be tasked with guiding Zambia through both opportunities and challenges, as the nation seeks a path toward stability, growth, and prosperity.
The Tonse Coalition, originally formed as an alliance of opposition groups united by shared values and common goals, has grown in influence and has now brought Edgar Lungu back into the fold. For Lungu, who served as Zambia's president from 2015 until his defeat in 2021, this coalition provides a renewed political platform. Though he initially stepped back from politics after his defeat, his recent moves suggest a potential comeback, signalling a renewed ambition to challenge Hichilema's administration.
The Tonse Coalition's support could serve as a strong base for Lungu's potential return to the political stage, as it unites various factions that were previously divided. The coalition's influence in the Zambian political landscape could present a serious challenge to Hichilema's United Party for National Development (UPND). With the 2026 elections approaching, this alliance may prove crucial in swaying undecided voters and energizing supporters who may feel disillusioned with Hichilema's performance.
The competition between Lungu and Hichilema represents more than just a political rivalry; it is a clash between two very different leadership styles and approaches to governance. During his time in office, Lungu was known for his emphasis on national security and infrastructure development, along with policies that aimed to strengthen Zambia's economic independence. However, he faced criticism for human rights abuses, allegations of corruption, and a shrinking civic space, which many believe contributed to his defeat in 2021.
Hichilema, on the other hand, campaigned on promises of transparency, economic reform, and a crackdown on corruption. After taking office, he quickly moved to reform Zambia's economic landscape, promising to tackle the national debt crisis and implement policies aimed at improving the country's business environment. However, his administration has faced challenges in delivering on some of these promises, leading to mixed public perceptions. While many still see Hichilema as a reformer, others feel that his government has not adequately addressed the country's pressing issues, particularly those affecting everyday citizens.
The contrasting leadership styles of Lungu and Hichilema could become a focal point in the 2026 elections. Lungu's supporters may view his potential return as a chance to restore what they see as stability, while Hichilema's base believes his administration represents a new era of governance and accountability. These differing visions for Zambia's future will play a central role in shaping voter opinions and could become a major deciding factor in the elections.
The Tonse Coalition's support for Lungu could change the dynamics of Zambian politics in several ways. Firstly, it has the potential to reinvigorate opposition forces and consolidate anti-Hichilema sentiments. By uniting various factions, the coalition could attract a broad spectrum of supporters who may have felt disenfranchised by the current administration. This could force Hichilema's UPND to reconsider its approach and possibly address criticisms related to economic hardships, social inequality, and public dissatisfaction.
The coalition's influence may also lead to heightened polarization within Zambia's political sphere. A consolidated opposition, especially with a figure as polarizing as Lungu, could intensify divisions within the country. While this may lead to a vibrant political environment, it also risks creating tensions that could destabilize the political climate, especially if the 2026 elections are highly contested.
Additionally, the Tonse Coalition's involvement may compel the UPND to focus more heavily on rural areas, where Lungu has historically had strong support. While Hichilema's reform agenda has gained support in urban centres, his government's ability to reach and address the concerns of rural populations could become a decisive factor in the election outcome. The Tonse Coalition's rural reach may give Lungu an advantage, requiring Hichilema's party to strengthen its engagement with rural voters.
The 2026 elections are likely to centre around key issues, including the economy, governance, and social stability. Zambia's economic performance will be a crucial factor for both parties, as citizens seek solutions to high unemployment, rising living costs, and inflation. Lungu's supporters argue that his administration was more attuned to the needs of rural communities and that his policies promoted job creation and local industry. Meanwhile, Hichilema's supporters claim that his reforms, while challenging, are necessary to steer Zambia toward a sustainable future.
Governance and anti-corruption efforts will also play a central role in the election discourse. While Hichilema promised to root out corruption, some critics believe that progress has been slower than anticipated. For Lungu, the challenge will be to address the allegations of corruption that marked his previous administration. Voters may demand accountability from both candidates, and their ability to address governance issues could heavily impact voter sentiment.
Social stability is another critical area of concern. During his tenure, Lungu's administration faced accusations of curtailing civil liberties and stifling dissent. In contrast, Hichilema has promoted freedom of expression and a more open civic space, although some activists argue that more needs to be done. The 2026 elections may therefore also hinge on the candidates' stances on civil rights and their willingness to foster an inclusive political environment.
International relations could also play a role in the 2026 elections. Hichilema's government has focused on mending ties with international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to address Zambia's debt crisis. However, this has led to mixed reactions domestically, with some viewing these partnerships as positive, while others see them as compromising Zambia's sovereignty.
Lungu's campaign, if it materializes, may focus on positioning Zambia as a self-sufficient nation, less reliant on external assistance. This stance could resonate with voters who are skeptical of international influence and believe in prioritizing Zambian solutions for Zambian problems. The differing foreign policy approaches of Lungu and Hichilema could, therefore, become a key consideration for voters who are concerned about Zambia's place on the global stage.
As the 2026 elections approach, Zambia finds itself at a crossroads. The contest between Hichilema and Lungu, potentially backed by the Tonse Coalition, reflects a broader debate about Zambia's direction. Will the nation embrace Hichilema's vision of reform and international engagement, or will it turn back to Lungu's approach, emphasizing national stability and economic independence?
For both leaders, connecting with voters and addressing their immediate needs will be critical. Hichilema will need to demonstrate that his reforms are making a tangible difference, particularly in alleviating economic pressures faced by ordinary citizens. Lungu, on the other hand, will need to convince voters that he can return to office with a renewed commitment to addressing past criticisms and fostering economic growth.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2026 elections will depend on how effectively each leader addresses Zambia's core challenges. In an environment shaped by the Tonse Coalition's resurgence, the stakes are high for both Hichilema and Lungu. With the nation watching closely, their actions and policies over the next two years could define the future of Zambia, setting the stage for either a continuation of reform or a return to a familiar, but reimagined, leadership.
As Zambia moves toward this crucial election, the importance of informed, engaged citizens will be more vital than ever. The next administration, regardless of who leads it, will be tasked with guiding Zambia through both opportunities and challenges, as the nation seeks a path toward stability, growth, and prosperity.
Source - Nkululeko Nkomo
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