How reliable is Zimbabwe's claim of economic growth?

This is a question that has bothered me for some time.

Listening to President Emmerson Mnangagwa addressing today's ZANU-PF Politburo meeting, one would be forgiven for believing Zimbabwe is in the midst of a spectacular economic renaissance. 

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For years now, the President has regurgitated the same message: the economy is growing, Zimbabwe is on an upward trajectory, and national prosperity is within reach. 

This claim has become a ritualistic refrain in government speeches, state media pronouncements, and ruling party campaigns. 

What makes the narrative more complicated is that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Zimbabwe's economy to grow by 6.6 percent in 2025, a figure the government holds up as validation of its optimistic storyline. 

Yet the lived experiences of ordinary Zimbabweans, the structural weaknesses of the economy, persistent data inconsistencies, and the opaque manner in which economic statistics are handled raise a critical question: just how reliable is Zimbabwe's claim of economic growth, even when the IMF appears to endorse it?

The first challenge is that Zimbabwe's economic story is deeply entangled in political motives. 

Economic performance, in any country, is a matter of political capital. 

For a ruling party seeking legitimacy after disputed elections, widespread corruption, and failing public services, there is immense incentive to promote the image of a growing economy. 

In fact, the claim of rapid economic growth has become a central pillar of the ZANU-PF propaganda strategy. 

It serves as justification for policy failures, as proof that "sanctions are not working," and as a distraction from deteriorating living conditions. 

When President Mnangagwa speaks confidently about economic expansion, he is not merely offering statistics; he is crafting political narrative. 

But narratives and verifiable economic realities are two very different things.

One recent example illustrates this problem clearly. 

Just three months ago, Zimbabwe's GDP was suddenly revised from US$35.2 billion to US$44.4 billion - an extraordinary jump of US$9.2 billion. 

Such revisions are not unheard of globally, but they typically follow lengthy national surveys, independent audits, and transparent methodological updates. 

Zimbabwe did none of these. 

There was no national economic census released to justify the revision, no sector-by-sector breakdown explaining the new contributions, and no publication of fresh data about manufacturing, agriculture, or the informal sector. 

The GDP figure simply jumped. 

This is the kind of statistical behaviour that raises eyebrows in the international community, not confidence.

When a country that routinely manipulates electoral processes, misrepresents inflation figures, hides public debt, and conceals corruption suddenly announces a 26 percent increase in GDP without explanation, scepticism is not only justified - it is necessary. 

A government comfortable with rigging political outcomes is equally comfortable with massaging economic statistics. 

Zimbabwe has a long history of doing precisely that. 

We remember the creative inflation statistics during the 2000s. 

We remember official unemployment figures that excluded the jobless simply because they were vending. 

We remember mining export figures that bore no resemblance to what global markets recorded. 

This is the environment within which today's growth claims are being made.

But what of the IMF? 

Does the IMF not provide some counterweight to potential manipulation? 

Surprisingly, not entirely. 

Contrary to popular assumption, the IMF does not independently measure GDP from scratch. 

It does not send its own enumerators into the fields to count maize harvests or into the mines to weigh gold output. 

The IMF relies heavily on national data, because it has no operational capacity to run national statistical systems. 

What it does offer is verification: cross-checking government data with global commodity trends, satellite imagery, electricity usage, trade records of partner countries, financial statements of large corporations, and various economic surveys. 

But this verification is ultimately constrained by the quality of the underlying data. 

If national institutions are weak, politicised, or opaque - as Zimbabwe's are - IMF estimates become approximations rather than certainties.

This means that when the IMF announces that Zimbabwe will grow by 6.6 percent, it is projecting growth based on the best available information - information that itself may be incomplete, distorted, or deliberately manipulated. 

The IMF's own reports repeatedly highlight concerns about data quality in Zimbabwe. 

They explicitly warn that the informal sector is poorly measured, mining output is opaque due to smuggling and underreporting, inflation is volatile and inconsistently captured, and key economic institutions lack independence. 

These warnings are often buried in diplomatic language, but they cannot be ignored. 

They are a tacit admission that IMF projections are only as accurate as the assumptions they rest upon.

Then comes the fundamental disconnect that cannot be ignored: GDP growth that does not translate into national wellbeing is neither meaningful nor reliable. 

Zimbabwe has supposedly been “growing” for years, yet citizens face worsening poverty, collapsing public infrastructure, and a deteriorating quality of life. 

The power crisis is deepening, with households enduring 16-hour daily blackouts. 

Hospitals lack basic medicines. 

Schools are underfunded. 

Roads are crumbling. 

The local currency remains effectively untrusted.

If the economy is indeed expanding at the rate the government and IMF claim, the logical question becomes: who is benefiting from this growth?

The disconnect is most visible in mining, which the government insists is the engine of growth. 

Yet this sector is riddled with smuggling, especially gold and lithium. 

Chinese-linked companies, often protected by the political elite, under-declare mineral output or export minerals through illicit channels. 

The Centre for Natural Resource Governance (CNRG) has estimated billions in mineral wealth lost annually to leakage and corruption. 

If so much value is escaping the formal system, then the GDP figures that rely on official reporting are inevitably flawed. 

The IMF knows this, economists know this, and the government knows this. 

But the political need to present Zimbabwe as thriving outweighs the need for accuracy.

It is therefore not enough to ask whether Zimbabwe is truly growing; we must ask what kind of growth is being measured, who is measuring it, and whether it reflects reality on the ground. 

Growth in sectors dominated by cartels, smuggling networks, or politically protected elites may inflate GDP on paper while doing nothing for the ordinary citizen. 

Growth driven by inflation, currency distortions, or statistical rebasing is not genuine prosperity. 

Growth that does not lift people out of poverty is meaningless.

Ultimately, Zimbabwe's claim of economic growth - even when cited by the IMF - must be treated with careful scrutiny. 

The government has clear political motives to exaggerate success. 

The statistical foundations upon which GDP is built are compromised. 

The informal and smuggled economies are vast and largely invisible. 

And the IMF, constrained by diplomatic and technical limitations, often ends up validating projections that do not fully reflect the country's lived economic reality. 

True economic growth is felt, not just announced. 

Until Zimbabweans experience a real rise in incomes, stable currency, reliable electricity, functional public services, and transparent management of national resources, government growth claims remain suspect, no matter how many times they are repeated in Politburo meetings or echoed in IMF reports.

© Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. Please feel free to WhatsApp or Call: +263715667700 | +263782283975, or email: mbofana.tendairuben73@gmail.com, or visit website: https://mbofanatendairuben.news.blog/