Tsvangirai is the problem

SYMBOLICALLY, the Grace Mugabe political drama, which can prove to be a tragi-comedy, is pregnant with deep meaning.

Most importantly and fundamentally, Gracegate is emblematic of the national situation of political and leadership failure.  It is like a joke, or a nightmare. But, realistically, as each day passes, one of the huge political scandals of this century gradually becomes a reality.

Grace Mugabe, just like that, and as if joking, has suddenly grown into, not only a politician, but some image of a national leader.  In just three months! Yes, it is an unadulterated farce camouflaged with various gimmicks and deceptions, yet, it is becoming a reality.

One, in fact, shudders to imagine that this hoax is gaining momentum and being allowed to overshadow everything else about Zimbabwe.  As if in a horrific dream, poor Zimbabweans are watching Grace suddenly take very bold steps towards urinating right into their bemused faces, with arrogance pride and contempt.

That is because, it can only happen in Zimbabwe, that old Robert Mugabe is smiling at watching his hitherto largely non-existent 'First Lady' sweep the country by a storm.

Unbelievably, Grace has the freedom of the land between Zambezi river and Limpopo in the south, to do everything she wants - from grabbing a doctorate at the University of Zimbabwe, all the way to dragging into her petticoat, traditional chiefs, church leaders and even the so-called junta.

It can only be in Zimbabwe, that, in stark contrast to the totally ruined economy and literally non-existent government, this Grace woman can sneak through the back door of her kitchen, to run the show, and threaten to direct the national course.

Unless she runs into a fatal ditch along her bumpy way, she may as well soon be smiling all the way leading a delegation to the UN summit! There is a national problem behind this.

It is not Zanu PF, for, to all purposes and intents, that party long proved to be a toy of Robert Mugabe.

The dictator may even run Zanu PF from his grave, largely because he has everyone in there bound under his spell.

That is why, one by one, they are coming out to queue and ululate at Gracegate.

The problem is no longer Robert Mugabe, because, even toddlers now know that he is a scandalous failure and shall never solve the crisis he created and has sustained. He must also be in shock as to how he remains put, after tearing every page of the definition of failure. The problem is Morgan Tsvangirai, and, l articulate why and how.

The MDC leader commands the largest following on the Zimbabwean political scene, now by a wide margin, thanks to Mugabe's self destructive madness. Tsvangirai, like in the previous 13 years, has been holding the key for the national political and leadership agenda, because of the massive support for him and the MDC. But, somewhat inexplicably, Tsvangirai has not played his role during the last 12 months, and has effectively given a new lease of life to the Mugabe dictatorship.

It is the non-effectiveness of Tsvangirai that has allowed room for silly dramas like Gracegate. After Zanu PF rigged last year's elections, the whole world, including Sadc, became disconcerted and the regime of Mugabe plunged into the pit of crisis of legitimacy.

Everything else after that became an acceleration into economic collapse and meltdown.

By April this year, it had become beyond doubt that the Mugabe regime had been rejected by Zimbabweans and the world, and that it had failed the nation, completely.

That situation required for the force that has the people's support to move in and redefine the national agenda, and that is Tsvangirai and the MDC.

That has remained the case up to this hour, yet, since August last year, Tsvangirai has been a pale shadow of his powerful political brand and image.

The MDC has virtually done nothing tangible about the national situation or leadership crisis.

Rather, Tsvangirai and his party have accepted to be pinned down on distractions, mainly the externally plotted Biti rebellion.

I have no doubt that deep inside his heart, Mugabe must be very grateful to Tsvangirai for continuously giving him and his regime new leases of life.

For, with the massive support he has, Tsvangirai would have made just slight political moves and intervention, to seize the initiative and redefine the agenda.

There may never be in history, any case of national situation as clearly and unequivocally reflective of failure of a serving regime like what has been of the Mugabe dictatorship during the past nine months.

Even university students alone would have engaged in political means and processes and overturn the tables on the regime.

Back to the subject, symbolised by Gracegate.

All the drama by Mugabe's wife would not have found space if Tsvangirai had stood up and play his role effectively.

The space being abused by Grace belongs to Tsvangirai.

The space that the likes of Emmanuel Makandiwa occasionally occupy and abuse on the national stage belongs to Tsvangirai, oh yes, by virtue of the massive support he has from the people, coupled with a powerful political brand.

If Tsvangirai had occupied his space and become effective, Mugabe would not have had the luxury of setting his followers, like puppies, against each other, before throwing Grace to grab the bone.

If Tsvangirai had stepped up and redefined the agenda, even now, the Mugabe regime would not be enjoying the luxury of fooling people through the likes of Makandiwa, who, in my view, is a different version of the deception that Gracegate is.

Some want to deny it, but it has become evident that Tsvangirai holds the key to legitimacy, which, he however has chosen to keep hidden somewhere in his locker at this crucial juncture.

I have no doubt that the circumstances and national mood require less than two weeks for Tsvangirai to change and redefine the agenda, with an effective and people powered political programme.

In all fairness, Tsvangirai has, for the past 10 months, abdigated on his duty and responsibility bestowed upon him by Zimbabweans, and, resultantly allowed for the crash-landing of the likes of Grace Mugabe onto the stage, backed by Makandiwa and company.

Tsvangirai and the MDC have become fond of making and listening to their excuses. All of their excuses, l am convinced, do not justify their serious ineffectiveness.

The Biti rebellion, which was plotted and pushed by Zanu PF elements, was supposed to be quickly crushed and exposed for the farce it was, by Tsvangirai and the MDC.

I said it from the beginning, the Biti gang is like a small tuck shop doomed to wallow in the valley of lack of any significant support. It remains that today, even as it teams up with other small entities.  But, Tsvangirai accepted to be dragged by the Biti plot into small fights and took eyes off the ball of the national agenda.

Tsvangirai and his colleagues in MDC leadership got hoodwinked into tangling with the elite gangs of the Biti rebel group, when they could have easily left them to expose their farce while going to the people and mobilising for the national agenda.

The other excuse by the MDC has been that of focusing on its looming congress, which, like l said way back, is largely a routine, as symbolised by the confirmed retaining of almost the entire top leadership.

I am sure Tsvangirai could have relegated congress to the sidelines of a concerted and sustained national political agenda, such that the MDC could have celebrated a major national turning point at its congress.

Having said all this, and basically capturing the main point, that Tsvangirai has allowed for the dramas such as Gracegate - symbolising a paralysis of direction and progressive development on the national political and leadership stage - what are the options, or possible scenarios? They are whittled down to just two, of a make or break nature.

First, Gracegate is set to really and effectively redefine and hijack the national agenda, as well as leadership initiative. By that, l mean nothing within and about Zanu PF can stand in the way of Gracegate - l will do a separate analysis of the likely scenarios at the end of the power fights in Zanu PF.

But, suffice to say that, at the rate at which things are going, the Mugabe whirlwind will sweep through and get what it wants, probably at the cost of a split, but with power remaining in the bedroom of Robert and Grace.

After that, the nation would be at the mercy of that whirlwind on a mission to recapture the state and entrench its power.

That mission could be aided by acolytes or tools such as the Biti outfit and partners it is forging alliances with.

I am convinced that the movements around the small tents of the Biti and Welshman Ncube outfits are not coincidental. They have direct links to Gracegate and plot for a new national game and agenda. We have seen and heard enough to anticipate a teaming up of the Biti-Ncube outfits for aiding the Gracegate.

That way, Gracegate would have landed safely, and, hoping to would have effectively dealt with the perennial threat - Tsvangirai and the MDC. It would symbolise a heartbreak for the nation, because, the people would not be under any illusions about what it means - perpetuation of the Mugabe dictatorship, aided by underlings really without anything to lose.

That is very possible if Tsvangirai keeps sitting on the powerful keys he has and watch the rumbling drama. The second possible scenario depends on Tsvangirai coming out of the shell now, to reclaim the initiative for the national political and leadership agenda from the likes of imposters such as Grace and Makandiwa.

With the backing he has, Tsvangirai needs just a week to send Grace back to her kitchen and Makandiwa to his money spinning religious venture.

The survey l carried out recently showed that the Mugabe regime even fears that the military baracks can be deserted if Tsvangirai calls for decisive political action.

The whole nation is on the edge, but Tsvangirai holds the key. He has, at this point, even increased power and leverage to emerge and bury all the imposters and ruses taking place on the stage, towards redefining the national agenda, effectively.

By not doing that, Tsvangirai is the problem, because, he has the massive people support and authority, but not utilising it.