Opinion / Columnist
Mnangagwa shoe-in for President
30 Nov 2014 at 11:47hrs | Views
Analysts have been making predictions that Emmerson Mnangagwa is now a set to become Vice President of Zanu-PF next week and of Zimbabwe in 2018, but we beg to differ. We think they don't know Robert Mugabe and what motivates him.
As we have consistently said, Robert Mugabe wants to die in office and even rule from beyond the grave, and, as he does not feature anywhere in those plans Mnangagwa is likely to be disappointed - again.
The events of the last few weeks have shown that Mugabe is firmly in control and has been making all the decisions himself, contrary self-appointed analysts saying that some shadowy JOC and Mnangagwa are in control.
Mnangagwa may have two faces, but both are failing to see that Robert Mugabe does not want him anywhere near the Presidency
It is now clear that it has always been President Mugabe, and that what the soldiers do, they do at his behest, and his motivation is, and has always been, an irrational desire to stay in power forever.
Mnangagwa who has always been Mugabe's briefcase boy, should have learnt by now that Mugabe does not want him anywhere near the Presidency, having been twice done out of the vice presidency - firstly after the so-called Tsholotsho rebellion and secondly by the disbanding of the Zanu-PF district co-odinating committees (DCCs).
Mnangagwa had done all that was constitutionally required of him to get the vice-presidential nomination, but firstly Mugabe, from the blue, decided there was need to elevate a woman. And when he attempted a come back four years later by mobilising the DCCs to support him, he was again disappointed by their disbanding, thus tilting the tide in Mujuru's favour and leading to the belief that Mujuru was now Mugabe's favourite.
But now it has become abundantly clear that she was only being used to put the breaks on Mnangagwa's rise, and that she should never have aspired to anything bigger - not until after Mugabe's death.
As for suggestions that Mugabe would now right the wrong done in 2004 when he imposed Mujuru at the expense of Mnangagwa who had completed the democratic requirements to get the vice-presidency, this suggestion assumes that Robert Mugabe has a conscience.
He does not. He does not feel like a normal human being nor does he feel that he owes anybody for favours done for him. Zanla Commander Mujuru as a was almost single-handedly responsible for Mugabe acceptance as leader of the guerrilla movement which had been managing well while he was languishing in Ian Smith's jails.
But he was repaid with a horrific death at the hands of state agents and his wife is now being treated like a leper.
The likes of Amos Midzi and John Mvundura have been his ambassadors in key allies, including Cuba and Libya, but this has not stopped their being discarded like used toilet paper along with 10 other provincial chairpersons. He does not care.
But now before he dies, Mugabe is trying to set up his wife for possible succession, or at least to be in a powerful enough position to have a say in the succession, which confirms that Mnangagwa is definitely not on Mugabe's plans.
Just as he has surprised all by virtually sacking some top leaders as if they were mere foot soldiers, now that he has consolidated the power to appoint not just the vice presidents but also the politburo, there is no reason why he cannot surprise the Mnangagwa camp.
The Zanu-PF "Congress" begins on Tuesday, and given reports about how the accreditation of delegates was manipulated, it will endorse the granting of the powers to Mugabe to appoint his vice and heir apparent.
The only thing we can say with certainty is that Mujuru will be dumped, given the axing of all her pillars of support, and Grace will be elevated to women's league chair, and possibly higher, given the very overt and orchestrated calls for elevation .
Speculation about Edna Madzongwe's elevation may also be justified given her role in the land invasions - which gives her something in common with the Mugabes - stolen land to protect.
If the stories about her dynastic connections to the Mugabe's are true, then that will strengthen her chances of being elevated as this would work well for the protection of the Mugabe children.
Besides, Mnangagwa is already past his sell-by date. He would be lucky if he has a long and healthy life like Mugabe's. So if he was appointed vice-president in 2018 when he is 80 years old, then wait for Mugabe to die, he will probably also die before becoming President.
Besides cannot win an election against Morgan Tsvangirai without cheating. He could not win in his own backyard and ended up looking for a safe rural seat, so Zanu-PF would be foolish to put him up as their candidate for president.
And if Mugabe appoints him vice-president, he would immediately start pushing for Mugabe to go so that he can have his shot at the top office before nature starts working on him.
Mugabe has already set a bad precedence for Zanu-PF when he railroaded changes to the constitution which are now being exposed as unprocedural, which means that, when he dies, others might want to reverse them, or introduce other constitutional changes in the same manner.
Either way it will mean chaos in Zanu-PF, with disputes-after-dispute about the irrational succession, just like another of Mugabe's power-retention schemes - the land reform. Now that Nicholas Goche has become unpopular, "war veterans" have started angling to invadw his farm.
As soon as Mugabe dies everything will be reversed. Anybody who had doubts about dictatorship, now knows how unsustainable it is. So for one to say Mnangagwa is now "a shoe-in" for the Zanu-PF and national vice-presidency is rather far-fetched.
The future of Zimbabwe therefore lies in the opposition, with the MDC-T now in the best position to take over, after having consolidated its leadership structure and now moving together as one unit.
The minority splinter groups are desperately trying to unite and take advantage of any calls for a new government of national unity which they think might come from Zanu-PF after its congress.
Such a call should be resisted by the MDC-T unless it gets real power with substantive appointments in the military, in the police, in the intelligence, in the finance departments, in the state media and in the bodies that run the elections.
Uniting with the splinter parties for the sake of unity will not help the MDC-T and in fact will weaken it, as those same leaders who have been ejected for their selfishness will be back again pushing their selfish agendas.
There is absolutely nothing to be gained from uniting with Dumiso Dabengwa or Welshman Ncube whose only relevance is that they are from Matebeleland. The people of Matebeleland have already rejected tribalism in favour of being part of the national agenda.
As we have consistently said, Robert Mugabe wants to die in office and even rule from beyond the grave, and, as he does not feature anywhere in those plans Mnangagwa is likely to be disappointed - again.
The events of the last few weeks have shown that Mugabe is firmly in control and has been making all the decisions himself, contrary self-appointed analysts saying that some shadowy JOC and Mnangagwa are in control.
Mnangagwa may have two faces, but both are failing to see that Robert Mugabe does not want him anywhere near the Presidency
It is now clear that it has always been President Mugabe, and that what the soldiers do, they do at his behest, and his motivation is, and has always been, an irrational desire to stay in power forever.
Mnangagwa who has always been Mugabe's briefcase boy, should have learnt by now that Mugabe does not want him anywhere near the Presidency, having been twice done out of the vice presidency - firstly after the so-called Tsholotsho rebellion and secondly by the disbanding of the Zanu-PF district co-odinating committees (DCCs).
Mnangagwa had done all that was constitutionally required of him to get the vice-presidential nomination, but firstly Mugabe, from the blue, decided there was need to elevate a woman. And when he attempted a come back four years later by mobilising the DCCs to support him, he was again disappointed by their disbanding, thus tilting the tide in Mujuru's favour and leading to the belief that Mujuru was now Mugabe's favourite.
But now it has become abundantly clear that she was only being used to put the breaks on Mnangagwa's rise, and that she should never have aspired to anything bigger - not until after Mugabe's death.
As for suggestions that Mugabe would now right the wrong done in 2004 when he imposed Mujuru at the expense of Mnangagwa who had completed the democratic requirements to get the vice-presidency, this suggestion assumes that Robert Mugabe has a conscience.
He does not. He does not feel like a normal human being nor does he feel that he owes anybody for favours done for him. Zanla Commander Mujuru as a was almost single-handedly responsible for Mugabe acceptance as leader of the guerrilla movement which had been managing well while he was languishing in Ian Smith's jails.
But he was repaid with a horrific death at the hands of state agents and his wife is now being treated like a leper.
The likes of Amos Midzi and John Mvundura have been his ambassadors in key allies, including Cuba and Libya, but this has not stopped their being discarded like used toilet paper along with 10 other provincial chairpersons. He does not care.
But now before he dies, Mugabe is trying to set up his wife for possible succession, or at least to be in a powerful enough position to have a say in the succession, which confirms that Mnangagwa is definitely not on Mugabe's plans.
Just as he has surprised all by virtually sacking some top leaders as if they were mere foot soldiers, now that he has consolidated the power to appoint not just the vice presidents but also the politburo, there is no reason why he cannot surprise the Mnangagwa camp.
The Zanu-PF "Congress" begins on Tuesday, and given reports about how the accreditation of delegates was manipulated, it will endorse the granting of the powers to Mugabe to appoint his vice and heir apparent.
The only thing we can say with certainty is that Mujuru will be dumped, given the axing of all her pillars of support, and Grace will be elevated to women's league chair, and possibly higher, given the very overt and orchestrated calls for elevation .
Speculation about Edna Madzongwe's elevation may also be justified given her role in the land invasions - which gives her something in common with the Mugabes - stolen land to protect.
If the stories about her dynastic connections to the Mugabe's are true, then that will strengthen her chances of being elevated as this would work well for the protection of the Mugabe children.
Besides, Mnangagwa is already past his sell-by date. He would be lucky if he has a long and healthy life like Mugabe's. So if he was appointed vice-president in 2018 when he is 80 years old, then wait for Mugabe to die, he will probably also die before becoming President.
Besides cannot win an election against Morgan Tsvangirai without cheating. He could not win in his own backyard and ended up looking for a safe rural seat, so Zanu-PF would be foolish to put him up as their candidate for president.
And if Mugabe appoints him vice-president, he would immediately start pushing for Mugabe to go so that he can have his shot at the top office before nature starts working on him.
Mugabe has already set a bad precedence for Zanu-PF when he railroaded changes to the constitution which are now being exposed as unprocedural, which means that, when he dies, others might want to reverse them, or introduce other constitutional changes in the same manner.
Either way it will mean chaos in Zanu-PF, with disputes-after-dispute about the irrational succession, just like another of Mugabe's power-retention schemes - the land reform. Now that Nicholas Goche has become unpopular, "war veterans" have started angling to invadw his farm.
As soon as Mugabe dies everything will be reversed. Anybody who had doubts about dictatorship, now knows how unsustainable it is. So for one to say Mnangagwa is now "a shoe-in" for the Zanu-PF and national vice-presidency is rather far-fetched.
The future of Zimbabwe therefore lies in the opposition, with the MDC-T now in the best position to take over, after having consolidated its leadership structure and now moving together as one unit.
The minority splinter groups are desperately trying to unite and take advantage of any calls for a new government of national unity which they think might come from Zanu-PF after its congress.
Such a call should be resisted by the MDC-T unless it gets real power with substantive appointments in the military, in the police, in the intelligence, in the finance departments, in the state media and in the bodies that run the elections.
Uniting with the splinter parties for the sake of unity will not help the MDC-T and in fact will weaken it, as those same leaders who have been ejected for their selfishness will be back again pushing their selfish agendas.
There is absolutely nothing to be gained from uniting with Dumiso Dabengwa or Welshman Ncube whose only relevance is that they are from Matebeleland. The people of Matebeleland have already rejected tribalism in favour of being part of the national agenda.
Source - Makusha Mugabe
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