Mnangagwa's succession dilemma intensifies

President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reportedly grappling with growing anxiety over who will succeed him, as the clock ticks toward Zanu-PF's crucial annual conference in Mutare from 13–18 October. Sources close to the President told The NewsHawks that three names are dominating the succession conversation: Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander Phillip Valerio Sibanda, businessman tycoon Kudakwashe Tagwirei, and Zanu-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa.

Other potential contenders being discussed by Mnangagwa's allies include First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa and Jacob Mudenda, the Speaker of Parliament and Zanu-PF secretary-general. The current succession landscape, insiders say, diverges from Zanu-PF's traditional ethnic and identity-based politics, with new regional and factional dynamics shaping the battlefront.

Zanu-PF's historical reliance on identity politics—including racialized nationalism, tribal contestations, and liberation entitlement—has been central to its strategy of consolidating power. While the upcoming conference is non-elective, it is expected to signal the contours of the intensifying succession race, with the 2027 congress likely to be the decisive political turning point.

Insiders indicate that Mnangagwa favors managing the succession through the congress route, viewing it as the smoothest way to install his preferred successor while neutralizing rivals, particularly Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga. Chiwenga, who played a key role in ousting the late Robert Mugabe in 2017 to install Mnangagwa, remains the President's most likely successor, though Mnangagwa reportedly does not want him to assume power. With deep military roots and extensive networks, Chiwenga continues to exert significant influence.

Among the potential successors, Sibanda has emerged as Mnangagwa's favored candidate, followed by Tagwirei and Mutsvangwa. Sources say Sibanda's political trajectory will become clearer after the conclusion of his military career next month. Attempts to propel Sibanda into politics during the 2023 Zanu-PF annual conference in Gqero were blocked by party and civil actors, preventing him from joining the politburo while still serving as commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.

Sibanda, a Midlander with a Zapu and Zipra background, combines military leverage with liberation credentials. Tagwirei brings substantial financial clout, while Mutsvangwa adds historical and political experience. Some within Mnangagwa's inner circle have floated the idea of First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa or Speaker Jacob Mudenda, though the President is reportedly reluctant to pursue the former.

The succession tension is further fueled by Chiwenga and his allies, who have openly resisted attempts to extend Mnangagwa's term. The rivalry escalated last month when Mnangagwa canceled a planned trip to the United Nations General Assembly after Chiwenga presented a dossier alleging corruption within the President's inner business circle. Mnangagwa responded by reshuffling the politburo and removing Chiwenga loyalists, including former secretary-general Obert Mpofu.

The succession issue has long been a contentious element of Zanu-PF politics, intensifying as the incumbent nears the end of their term. Mnangagwa and his allies reportedly seek a successor who will safeguard their financial interests, families, and protection from accountability for past human rights abuses and excesses of power.

Although Mnangagwa has publicly denied plans to extend his rule beyond the 2028 second term limit, calls from within his inner circle for a potential extension are widely seen as a proxy battle over the succession. With the Mutare conference imminent, the party's succession politics remain volatile, setting the stage for a high-stakes confrontation in the months ahead.