Opinion / Columnist
Chiwenga's only option is to rolling the tanks as he did in 2017
7 hrs ago |
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If there is one thing Emmerson Mnangagwa is not afraid of, it is making bold decisions and executing them with precision. He has been confidently and systematically moving his chess pieces against his vice president, General Constantino Chiwenga, showing no fear of miscalculation as the two men stand eye to eye in their mortal succession battle.
Mnangagwa is methodically purging anyone remotely associated with Chiwenga, and those still within the general's orbit will inevitably face the same fate unless Chiwenga acts decisively; assuming he still commands meaningful support within Zimbabwe's military.
Politically, Mnangagwa has outmanoeuvred him so thoroughly that the only option left for Chiwenga would be to roll the tanks as he did in 2017, but then he was commander - today he is just a politician whose military influence is unknown.
On the political chessboard, Mnangagwa has played like a grandmaster, exploiting every weakness exhibited by the general.
The downfall of Chiwenga would not only consolidate Mnangagwa's grip on power but would also pave the way for the ascendance of Kudakwashe Tagwirei - Mnangagwa's handpicked successor and the man positioned to protect his legacy of looting and his obscene wealth.
No matter how the public feels about these two men, we will have zero role to play in who wins unless the tanks are rolled out and the people take to the streets.
With each day that passes it becomes steadily harder.
Mnangagwa has coup-proofed himself regionally and across sub-Saharan Africa. Those trips by Wicknell Chivhayo are not just ordinary journeys into African State Houses, there is a method to what looks comical.
It is now a kill or be killed moment for the two men, there is no turning back, because they have both crossed the redlines.
If Chiwenga intends to act he must move quickly and decisively, and even then success is far from being certain.
Meanwhile ordinary Zimbabwean citizens are caught between elite power struggles and a looming threat of violence, which only exposes how fragile Zimbabwe's political environment has become.
Mnangagwa has the power of incumbency and vast wealth, while Chiwenga carries the people's frustrations and the covert support of a loyal faction within the army. But will that be enough to unseat a super-wealthy president who commands the state, controls the purse strings, and does not hesitate to act pre-emptively to disarm his equally fearsome rival?
Even with popular anger and military backing, Chiwenga faces steep obstacles. Incumbency buys loyalty through patronage, secures regional and international acquiescence, and gives Mnangagwa the means to move swiftly and ruthlessly.
In short, a contest between money and institutional control on one side and grievance and clandestine force on the other is unlikely to produce a decisive outcome without a dramatic violent escalation.
Mnangagwa is methodically purging anyone remotely associated with Chiwenga, and those still within the general's orbit will inevitably face the same fate unless Chiwenga acts decisively; assuming he still commands meaningful support within Zimbabwe's military.
Politically, Mnangagwa has outmanoeuvred him so thoroughly that the only option left for Chiwenga would be to roll the tanks as he did in 2017, but then he was commander - today he is just a politician whose military influence is unknown.
On the political chessboard, Mnangagwa has played like a grandmaster, exploiting every weakness exhibited by the general.
The downfall of Chiwenga would not only consolidate Mnangagwa's grip on power but would also pave the way for the ascendance of Kudakwashe Tagwirei - Mnangagwa's handpicked successor and the man positioned to protect his legacy of looting and his obscene wealth.
No matter how the public feels about these two men, we will have zero role to play in who wins unless the tanks are rolled out and the people take to the streets.
With each day that passes it becomes steadily harder.
Mnangagwa has coup-proofed himself regionally and across sub-Saharan Africa. Those trips by Wicknell Chivhayo are not just ordinary journeys into African State Houses, there is a method to what looks comical.
It is now a kill or be killed moment for the two men, there is no turning back, because they have both crossed the redlines.
If Chiwenga intends to act he must move quickly and decisively, and even then success is far from being certain.
Meanwhile ordinary Zimbabwean citizens are caught between elite power struggles and a looming threat of violence, which only exposes how fragile Zimbabwe's political environment has become.
Mnangagwa has the power of incumbency and vast wealth, while Chiwenga carries the people's frustrations and the covert support of a loyal faction within the army. But will that be enough to unseat a super-wealthy president who commands the state, controls the purse strings, and does not hesitate to act pre-emptively to disarm his equally fearsome rival?
Even with popular anger and military backing, Chiwenga faces steep obstacles. Incumbency buys loyalty through patronage, secures regional and international acquiescence, and gives Mnangagwa the means to move swiftly and ruthlessly.
In short, a contest between money and institutional control on one side and grievance and clandestine force on the other is unlikely to produce a decisive outcome without a dramatic violent escalation.
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Source - businessdaily.co.zw
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