Predicted Super El Nino causes anxiety among Zimbabwe farmers

Zimbabwe and the wider southern African region are facing growing uncertainty over future weather patterns, with concerns rising about a possible Super El Nino event that could trigger severe droughts and heatwaves in 2026–27.

In rural Guruve under Mashonaland West Province, residents like Chengetai Mushongahande say increasingly erratic weather has already begun disrupting daily life and farming activities.

"We have experienced high temperatures of late, but within a few minutes, we get some rain. Just as we get home, there is sunshine. The weather is no longer predictable," she said.

Climate projections, including the latest April 2026 outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), warn that southern Africa faces a heightened risk of severe climate disruption linked to a potential Super El Niño.

The report indicates suppressed rainfall across central and southern Africa, increasing the likelihood of drought, water scarcity and agricultural disruption. It also warns of extreme heat conditions, with 2027 potentially ranking among the hottest years on record globally.

Super El Nino conditions are associated with unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, which can exceed 2.5°C above normal, influencing global weather systems and often reducing rainfall in southern Africa.

Agricultural stakeholders say the potential impact on food security could be significant, particularly for smallholder farmers who rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture.

Zimbabwe Tobacco Growers Association president George Seremwe has called for urgent investment in irrigation infrastructure to mitigate risks.

He said better use of existing water bodies and improved irrigation systems could help safeguard both food crops and export commodities such as tobacco.

Independent consultant Anna Braizer also warned that climate shocks, combined with global geopolitical tensions affecting fertiliser supply chains, could worsen food insecurity.

She urged a shift toward drought-resistant crops such as millet and sorghum, expanded use of cover crops, and improved soil moisture conservation techniques.

Braizer also recommended stronger early warning systems, livestock feed preparation, and greater emphasis on food sovereignty to reduce dependence on imports.

However, government officials have urged caution over long-term projections.

The chief director in the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife, Washington Zhakata, said it is too early to make firm forecasts for the 2026–27 season, noting that regional assessments for the current agricultural cycle are still underway.

"SADC will do an analysis and provide a position for the next season," he said, adding that El Niño conditions do not always automatically result in drought across the region.

As climate signals continue to shift, farmers and policymakers alike face growing pressure to balance short-term agricultural planning with long-term climate resilience strategies.