Zimbabwe moves to shield farmers from fertiliser price shock

The Government has announced plans to facilitate duty-free fertiliser imports and accelerate the revival of Sable Chemicals' ammonium production plant as part of efforts to protect Zimbabwe's agricultural sector from rising global fertiliser costs linked to tensions in the Middle East.

Speaking during a post-Cabinet media briefing on Tuesday, Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Zhemu Soda said the measures are aimed at safeguarding national food security amid growing concerns over supply chain disruptions and escalating input costs.

"The 2026/27 Summer Production Plan seeks to guarantee national food security against the backdrop of unprecedented compounding pressures, including the 80 percent probability of a Super El Niño-induced drought and heightened fuel and fertiliser prices," said Soda.

The intervention comes as analysts warn that prolonged instability in the Middle East, particularly disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, could significantly increase fertiliser prices in Zimbabwe.

According to the April Economic Pulse report by Africa Economic Development Strategies (AEDS), a prolonged closure or militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger severe shortages and price spikes in fertiliser supplies.

The report projects that under a worst-case scenario, fertiliser prices could rise by between 70 percent and 120 percent, pushing the cost of a standard 50-kilogram bag of Compound D fertiliser to as much as US$77.

Such increases could force farmers to reduce fertiliser application rates substantially, potentially resulting in a decline in national crop yields of between 35 percent and 80 percent and creating the need for emergency food imports valued at up to US$600 million.

Even under a moderate disruption scenario lasting six to 12 months, AEDS forecasts fertiliser price increases of between 30 percent and 50 percent, accompanied by intermittent shortages of key products such as urea and basal fertilisers.

Zimbabwe remains heavily reliant on imported fertiliser due to limited local production capacity, while the Middle East is a major supplier of natural gas, a critical feedstock in fertiliser manufacturing.

The Government's longer-term response centres on rebuilding domestic fertiliser production capacity to reduce dependence on imports.

Minister of Agriculture, Anxious Masuka recently said Zimbabwe was making significant progress toward localising fertiliser production.

"In Zimbabwe, we are already discussing the localisation of the fertiliser industry and there is a Cabinet committee that is focusing on that and we have made very important progress in that regard," Masuka said.

A major component of that strategy is being driven by the Mutapa Investment Fund, which has launched a US$153.1 million programme to revitalise the country's fertiliser value chain.

The fund has already disbursed US$5.3 million toward the refurbishment of the Dorowa phosphate mine, Zimbabwe's sole phosphate producer, with an additional US$10 million earmarked for future expansion.

Once fully operational, Dorowa is expected to produce 100,000 tonnes of phosphate concentrate annually, enough to support the manufacture of approximately 300,000 tonnes of Compound D fertiliser.

Mutapa has also committed US$13.3 million to revive production at Sable Chemicals while increasing Government ownership in the company from 37 percent to a controlling 69 percent stake.

Additional support includes a US$30 million working capital facility for ZFC Limited and US$3 million for ZimPhos to strengthen local manufacturing and raw material procurement.

Industry experts believe Zimbabwe's long-term fertiliser security may ultimately depend on natural gas discoveries in the Cabora Bassa Basin in Muzarabani.

Exploration by Invictus Energy at the Mukuyu Gas Field has confirmed gas-condensate resources, with the company already holding a gas supply memorandum of understanding with Sable Chemicals.

If commercial extraction and pipeline infrastructure are developed, locally produced natural gas could significantly reduce Zimbabwe's exposure to global supply disruptions and lower production costs for nitrogen-based fertilisers.

Economist Enoch Musara warned that higher fertiliser costs could have far-reaching consequences beyond agriculture.

"Rising fertiliser costs act as a regressive tax on the entire food value chain," Musara said.

"Because fertiliser is a major upfront expense for farmers, the price hikes will inevitably bleed directly into the retail market, pushing the cost of basic commodities like mealie-meal and bread well beyond the reach of ordinary consumers."

With concerns mounting over global supply chains, the Government's immediate duty-free import programme and long-term localisation strategy are expected to play a crucial role in stabilising fertiliser supplies and protecting national food production in the seasons ahead.